2024

[Skill and Chance]

Scenario 1: Dems become more Libertarian, GOP becomes more Populist (Obama probably wins in 2012 and balances the budget)

Basically the GOP locks in its Ohio Valley/Rust Belt gains and the Dems lock in their Southern and Western gains.

Scenario 2: Dems become more Populist, GOP becomes more Libertarian (Obama probably loses in 2012 and Dems rebuild by running against budget cuts)

A pretty radically different electoral map: The Northeast and the interior South would be the new swing regions.  I'd favor Scenario 1.

[Skill and Chance]

Also, one thing that shows pretty clearly in these maps is that the Democrats could be locked out of a Senate majority for a long time if they lose ground in New England.  They could end up with a situation where there are <20 Democratic leaning states in a 50/50 election.   

[Skill and Chance]

I predict something in between today and Scenario B. Ignoring the Lean/Likely/Safe, here's a possibility:

Of course, the type of candidate on both is still important; Al Gore did better than John Kerry in the South because he was running as a moderate populist, with the latter forced into an anti-war, socially liberal position that's toxic to Southern voters. Similarly, a John Thune won't do as well in the West and New Hampshire as a Jon Huntsman or Chris Christie.

I'm reasonably confident that NC will vote like a southern enclave of NY/New England by 2024.  Once Charlotte develops Fairfax-style multiethnic suburbs it's all over.  I'd say there's a 50/50 chance that the same thing happens to Georgia.