Are there ANY urban areas trending GOP?
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  Are there ANY urban areas trending GOP?
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Author Topic: Are there ANY urban areas trending GOP?  (Read 3486 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
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« on: August 08, 2011, 12:59:45 AM »

Are there ANY urban areas trending Republican? At all???

There's rural areas trending Democratic - and not just in New England and Hawaii. But are there ANY urban areas trending Republican?

These days, the pioneers are in the cities.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2011, 01:14:18 AM »

Are there ANY urban areas trending Republican? At all???

There's rural areas trending Democratic - and not just in New England and Hawaii. But are there ANY urban areas trending Republican?

These days, the pioneers are in the cities.

Well, in the Atlas sense, quite a few urban areas "trended" Republican in 2008, but this was mostly due to "ceiling effects" where they couldn't get much more Democratic. See: San Fransisco, D.C.

I'm not sure that accounts for all of it, though. Obama did worse than Gore in Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island, for instance. Maybe it was all Lieberman, but I wouldn't be surprised if those boroughs trended Republican in the future.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2011, 05:20:33 AM »

Nope. Republicans have never done well in urban areas. Just look at the municipal governments of NYC, Chicago, SF, etc. They're usually made up of 75-95% Democrats.

Perfect example is the Chicago City Council. It's got 50 members and after the most recent election 100% of the councilors are Democrats.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_City_Council#Chicago_aldermen
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2011, 05:32:24 AM »

Nope. Republicans have never done well in urban areas. Just look at the municipal governments of NYC, Chicago, SF, etc. They're usually made up of 75-95% Democrats.

Perfect example is the Chicago City Council. It's got 50 members and after the most recent election 100% of the councilors are Democrats.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_City_Council#Chicago_aldermen

An urban area doesn't have to vote Republican to be trending Republican, only less Democratic than it was before.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2011, 05:37:22 AM »

Nope. Republicans have never done well in urban areas. Just look at the municipal governments of NYC, Chicago, SF, etc. They're usually made up of 75-95% Democrats.

Perfect example is the Chicago City Council. It's got 50 members and after the most recent election 100% of the councilors are Democrats.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_City_Council#Chicago_aldermen

An urban area doesn't have to vote Republican to be trending Republican, only less Democratic than it was before.

I know, I was just trying to point out how few elected Republicans there are in urban areas. As far as voting shifts go NYT has a good overview between the 1992-2008 presidential elections (push the 'voting shift' tab on the left): http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html
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The_Texas_Libertarian
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2011, 05:36:02 PM »

How has Phoenix been trending the past few election cycles?

First post by the way!  Now I just need to figure out how to get my state by my username, maybe even with the city of Dallas.
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HST1948
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2011, 09:09:02 PM »

A lot of rust belt urban areas have started trending GOP since at least 2004.  My hometown of Buffalo is a notable example, so is the Pittsburgh area which has notably begun to turn toward the GOP. The surrounding suburbs of both Kansas City and St. Louis MO have trended GOP since 2004 and in 2008 both cities trended toward the GOP. In 2004 Cleveland trended Democratic, but it trended GOP in 2000 and 2008 and is certainly a city that I can see turn toward the GOP in the future. In addition Maricopa County, AZ which contains Phoenix has been trending GOP since at least 2000.
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rbt48
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2011, 10:42:09 PM »

Omaha will pretty surely trend Republican from 2008 to 2012, at least as things stand now.
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phk
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2011, 10:54:46 PM »

Some in NJ, NY have trended GOP since 2000, though its probably due to Gore's overperformance.
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redcommander
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2011, 11:20:43 PM »

San Diego will probably trend GOP in 2012. Los Angeles might also.
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AUH2O Libertarian
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2011, 06:13:09 PM »

I can see the old industrial rust belt cities trending, especially if the black population continues to migrate down south to places like DC and Atlanta.

Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Saint Louis, and Milwaukee are all cities I can see trending towards the GOP in the next decade.  Conservative areas in New York and Philadelphia will continue to grow.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2011, 06:17:04 PM »

By trend, what I really mean is swing - not the atlas definition of trend.

What I really mean here is that almost all urban areas are swinging Democratic, but some are swinging faster than others.
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Jack1475
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« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2011, 12:35:14 AM »

Actually some smaller urban areas are.

A good example is Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton in Pa.  About 200,000, goes Republican.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2011, 06:49:41 PM »

Nope. Republicans have never done well in urban areas.

There are numerous megacities in the South and Southwest in which the GOP does perfect well.

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The most Democratic council is not a "perfect" example, it is an extreme example.

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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2011, 06:56:03 PM »

By trend, what I really mean is swing - not the atlas definition of trend.

What I really mean here is that almost all urban areas are swinging Democratic, but some are swinging faster than others.

It all depends on what you mean by "urban." If "urban" is a county with a city of at least population 50,000, there are places that were formerly Democratic rural areas that are now heavily Republican "urban" areas.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2011, 06:59:01 PM »

By trend, what I really mean is swing - not the atlas definition of trend.

What I really mean here is that almost all urban areas are swinging Democratic, but some are swinging faster than others.

I guess what you want to know is if there are any cities which are turning Republican in a substantial way.  I doubt it.  If there are it would be very few.  If you look at who inhabits cities you'll see that a majority of the people fit the Democrat demographic.  Minorities and young educated people.  Suburbs are a different story.  And as has been mentioned rust belt cities are also a potential exception.  They are undergoing a significant brain drain.

I'll put it to you this way.  Houston is the largest city in Texas and in the south.  Bush lost in Houston.  Also Houston's mayor is an openly lesbian woman.  You simply cannot have a city of that size and have it be Republican.

Republican candidates for mayor in Phoenix won 62% of the vote in the open primary.
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