How brutal will the 2014 elections be for Republicans if Perry wins?

[Eraserhead]

Reverse jmfsct thread anyone?

[Psychic Octopus]

They will probably be awful, but not as bad in the Senate, since the Democrats have very little room for gains there. Any gains the economy *might* see will probably be offset by a civil war in the party, as well as political actions that are destined to be unpopular. And I say that as someone who leans Republican.

[Vosem]

Probably pretty bad, like any other midterm.

I still have no idea how the 2012 elections will turn out, never mind 2014.

I can predict the Russian 2011 parliamentary elections if you want, though.

SPOILER: United Russia wins.

[Lief 🗽]

It's very unlikely the economy improves by 2014 if it doesn't by enough to get Obama re-elected, especially when Perry and his GOP congress implements super austerity.

[NVGonzalez]

-70 house

-4 to 6 senate

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

-100 House
-2 to 5 Senate

It could get far worse than that. See the 1890 and 1894 midterms.

[Heimdal]

At least -350 in the House.
Maybe -6 in the Senate.

[Mr.Phips]

They will probably be awful, but not as bad in the Senate, since the Democrats have very little room for gains there. Any gains the economy *might* see will probably be offset by a civil war in the party, as well as political actions that are destined to be unpopular. And I say that as someone who leans Republican.

It was said that Republicans had little room for gain in the Senate in 2010. 

[J. J.]

Probably a loss of most the seats they would win in 2012 in the House.

I'd expect the Senate to increase 1-3 seats.

That assumes that Perry wins by a large margin.

[Mr.Phips]

Probably a loss of most the seats they would win in 2012 in the House.

I'd expect the Senate to increase 1-3 seats.

That assumes that Perry wins by a large margin.

Republicans won pretty much every possible seat that they could win in the House in 2010.  Even in the best of situations, the most they could gain is maybe five or ten more seats through redistricting. 

[Miles]

As far as the Senate, after 2008, Democrats are almost maxed out on their winnable Class II seats. I could see ol' Saxby and McConnell losing. After that, I don't really see any tangible pickup opportunities for the Dems. I doubt ME would flip; Collin's personal popularity should withstand the Democratic wave. Maybe they could draft Boren or Henry in OK if Inhofe retires?

Democrats will have many more statehouses that they could pick-up. I could see WI, MI, IA, GA, OH, PA, ME, AZ and FL all flipping fairly easily.

This would be the best scenario for Democrats:

Senate: D+3


Governorships: D+12

[Psychic Octopus]

They will probably be awful, but not as bad in the Senate, since the Democrats have very little room for gains there. Any gains the economy *might* see will probably be offset by a civil war in the party, as well as political actions that are destined to be unpopular. And I say that as someone who leans Republican.

It was said that Republicans had little room for gain in the Senate in 2010. 

True, but all of the GOP seats up in 2014 (except Maine) are McCain states, and generally safe ones at that. Democrats would need to run popular candidates well-versed in their state's politics.  In 2010, the GOP had far more generous playing field.

Of course, this could change, but the max gain I could see currently is around three.

[Skill and Chance]

Assuming Perry had full GOP control for 2 years, they would be lucky to get >45% in any non-southern suburb in 2014.  Probably a 1948 style wave in the House with a couple of gains in the Senate (as has been mentioned, Senate geography is very GOP favorable in 2014).

[Eraserhead]

Probably a loss of most the seats they would win in 2012 in the House.

I'd expect the Senate to increase 1-3 seats.

That assumes that Perry wins by a large margin.

lol

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't think we'll even have elections in 2014 if Perry wins.

[J. J.]

Probably a loss of most the seats they would win in 2012 in the House.

I'd expect the Senate to increase 1-3 seats.

That assumes that Perry wins by a large margin.

lol

Ah, how many Democratic Senate seats are up in 2014?

[krazen1211]

Probably a loss of most the seats they would win in 2012 in the House.

I'd expect the Senate to increase 1-3 seats.

That assumes that Perry wins by a large margin.

lol

Ah, how many Democratic Senate seats are up in 2014?

20 Dems, 13 Republicans. The GOPers are all of course 2008 survivors.

2.1 Democrats seeking re-election (4 seats)
2.1.1 Mark Begich of Alaska
2.1.2 Mary Landrieu of Louisiana
2.1.3 John Kerry of Massachusetts
2.1.4 Max Baucus of Montana
2.2 Democrats who may seek re-election (16 seats)
2.2.1 Mark Pryor of Arkansas
2.2.2 Mark Udall of Colorado
2.2.3 Chris Coons of Delaware
2.2.4 Dick Durbin of Illinois
2.2.5 Tom Harkin of Iowa
2.2.6 Carl Levin of Michigan
2.2.7 Al Franken of Minnesota
2.2.8 Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire
2.2.9 Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey
2.2.10 Tom Udall of New Mexico
2.2.11 Kay Hagan of North Carolina
2.2.12 Jeff Merkley of Oregon
2.2.13 Jack Reed of Rhode Island
2.2.14 Tim Johnson of South Dakota
2.2.15 Mark Warner of Virginia
2.2.16 Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia






2.3 Republicans seeking re-election (3 seats)
2.3.1 Saxby Chambliss of Georgia
2.3.2 Pat Roberts of Kansas
2.3.3 Mitch McConnell of Kentucky
2.4 Republicans who may seek re-election (10 seats)
2.4.1 Jeff Sessions of Alabama
2.4.2 Jim Risch of Idaho
2.4.3 Susan Collins of Maine
2.4.4 Thad Cochran of Mississippi
2.4.5 Mike Johanns of Nebraska
2.4.6 Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma
2.4.7 Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
2.4.8 Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
2.4.9 John Cornyn of Texas
2.4.10 Mike Enzi of Wyoming

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Probably a loss of most the seats they would win in 2012 in the House.

I'd expect the Senate to increase 1-3 seats.

That assumes that Perry wins by a large margin.

lol

Ah, how many Democratic Senate seats are up in 2014?

20 Dems, 13 Republicans. The GOPers are all of course 2008 survivors.

2.1 Democrats seeking re-election (4 seats)
2.1.1 Mark Begich of Alaska
2.1.2 Mary Landrieu of Louisiana
2.1.3 John Kerry of Massachusetts
2.1.4 Max Baucus of Montana
2.2 Democrats who may seek re-election (16 seats)
2.2.1 Mark Pryor of Arkansas
2.2.2 Mark Udall of Colorado
2.2.3 Chris Coons of Delaware
2.2.4 Dick Durbin of Illinois
2.2.5 Tom Harkin of Iowa
2.2.6 Carl Levin of Michigan
2.2.7 Al Franken of Minnesota
2.2.8 Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire
2.2.9 Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey
2.2.10 Tom Udall of New Mexico
2.2.11 Kay Hagan of North Carolina
2.2.12 Jeff Merkley of Oregon
2.2.13 Jack Reed of Rhode Island
2.2.14 Tim Johnson of South Dakota
2.2.15 Mark Warner of Virginia
2.2.16 Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia






2.3 Republicans seeking re-election (3 seats)
2.3.1 Saxby Chambliss of Georgia
2.3.2 Pat Roberts of Kansas
2.3.3 Mitch McConnell of Kentucky
2.4 Republicans who may seek re-election (10 seats)
2.4.1 Jeff Sessions of Alabama
2.4.2 Jim Risch of Idaho
2.4.3 Susan Collins of Maine
2.4.4 Thad Cochran of Mississippi
2.4.5 Mike Johanns of Nebraska
2.4.6 Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma
2.4.7 Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
2.4.8 Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
2.4.9 John Cornyn of Texas
2.4.10 Mike Enzi of Wyoming

Good point. The Democrats would have massive gains in the House, but partisanship would probably save all but Collins in the Senate.

[J. J.]

Good point. The Democrats would have massive gains in the House, but partisanship would probably save all but Collins in the Senate.

Well, first, even with Obama cruising to victory in 2012, I'd expect the R's to have a net gain of 4 seats in the Senate.  A massive Perry or Romney victory could extend that up to 12 seats.

Even if 2012 is a bad R year, you could see SD, NJ, MT, and AR go R's.

I think that, no matter who is elected in 2012 the GOP will take the Senate and hold it in 2014.  I expect at least a slight increase for the R's in 2014, with a President Romney or Perry.  That's more do to who's up, and where they are from than anything else.

I think the real question is the House.  First, the R's will probably gain 4-10 seats due to redistricting.  Obama could improve and have coattails, but they will be shortened.  The Perry/Romney coattails will be lengthened, but possibly not by much. 

Second is, what will Romney/Perry's coattails be, in addition to that 4-10.  10? 25? 35? 40?  How much will the R "cushion" expand.  We could see an R disaster, where they lose 32 seats, in 2014 and they are down to 243. 

[J. J.]

The headline on 11/7/12 will be either:

Obama Re-elected
GOP wins Senate

or

[Insert name of R Nominee] Defeats Obama
GOP wins Senate

or

Too Close to Call
GOP wins Senate

The headline on 11/5/14 will probably be:

GOP Gains in Senate

[Eraserhead]

The GOP will not gain Senate seats in 2014 if Perry wins. Sorry, JJ. Also the main headline would likely have to do with the dozens and dozens of House seats they'd lose.

[Lief 🗽]

I had to check to make sure the last few JJ posts weren't Vander Blubb parodying him.

[Mr.Phips]

Good point. The Democrats would have massive gains in the House, but partisanship would probably save all but Collins in the Senate.

Well, first, even with Obama cruising to victory in 2012, I'd expect the R's to have a net gain of 4 seats in the Senate.  A massive Perry or Romney victory could extend that up to 12 seats.

Even if 2012 is a bad R year, you could see SD, NJ, MT, and AR go R's.

I think that, no matter who is elected in 2012 the GOP will take the Senate and hold it in 2014.  I expect at least a slight increase for the R's in 2014, with a President Romney or Perry.  That's more do to who's up, and where they are from than anything else.

I think the real question is the House.  First, the R's will probably gain 4-10 seats due to redistricting.  Obama could improve and have coattails, but they will be shortened.  The Perry/Romney coattails will be lengthened, but possibly not by much.  

Second is, what will Romney/Perry's coattails be, in addition to that 4-10.  10? 25? 35? 40?  How much will the R "cushion" expand.  We could see an R disaster, where they lose 32 seats, in 2014 and they are down to 243.  

Republicans are not gaining any more than five or ten seats in the House even if Romney or Perry landslide.  There just arent enough winnable Democratic seats.  They are close to hitting a saturation point.  

If Obama cruises to victory in 2012, Republicans wont gain four seats.  They would gain North Dakota and Nebraska, but probably lose Nevada and maybe even Massachussetts. 

[J. J.]

The GOP will not gain Senate seats in 2014 if Perry wins. Sorry, JJ. Also the main headline would likely have to do with the dozens and dozens of House seats they'd lose.

I'm talking about a 1-3 seat gain in 2014, not[//i] dozens.  It has to do with the seats that are up.  It has happened in 1934, 1982, and 2002.

As for the main headline, I've indicated that the Senate would not be.

I expect the R's to take the Senate in 2012.  I would expect them to increase seats in 2012 and 2014.

I think that the possibility (probably 50/50) that between 2011 and 2017, the R's will:

1.  Increase the number of Senate Seats four years in a row, or,

2.  Hold at least 60 in the Senate at some point.


Mr. Phips, that is very "00's" thinking.

[Mr.Phips]

The GOP will not gain Senate seats in 2014 if Perry wins. Sorry, JJ. Also the main headline would likely have to do with the dozens and dozens of House seats they'd lose.

I'm talking about a 1-3 seat gain in 2014, not[//i] dozens.  It has to do with the seats that are up.  It has happened in 1934, 1982, and 2002.

As for the main headline, I've indicated that the Senate would not be.

I expect the R's to take the Senate in 2012.  I would expect them to increase seats in 2012 and 2014.

I think that the possibility (probably 50/50) that between 2011 and 2017, the R's will:

1.  Increase the number of Senate Seats four years in a row, or,

2.  Hold at least 60 in the Senate at some point.


Mr. Phips, that is very "00's" thinking.

Increase Senate seats four years in a row?  2016 will be as lopsided in favor of Democrats as 2012 is for Republicans.  Any Democrat that survived 2010(which was the worst year for Democrats since 1894), they will be able to survive 2016.  The only two Democrats remotely vulnerable in 2016 are Reid and maybe Bennett(but by 2016 Colorado could well be a solid Dem state). 

As for House seats, Republicans would have to start winning D+5 to D+10 seats if they were to increase significantly from where they are now.  Not likely to happen.