Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Hatman 🍁]

Here they all are  (bc the images weren't working well)

Trinity-Spadina:

Rosario Marchese NDP: 47%

Sarah Thomson Lib: 33%

Mike Yen Con: 12%

Tim Grant Green: 7%

 

Timmins-James Bay:

Gilles Bisson NDP: 46.9%

Al Spacek Con: 33.4%

Leonard Rickard Lib: 15.4%

Angela Plant Green: 2.8%

 

Thunder Bay-Superior North:

Michael Gravelle Lib: 34.9%

Steve Mantis NDP: 33.9%

Anthony LeBlack Con: 25.4%

Scott Kyle Green: 5.3%

 

Thunder Bay-Atikokan:

Mary Kozorys NDP: 37.4%

Bill Mauro Lib: 32%

Fred Gilbert Con: 26%

Jonathan Milnes Green: 4.2%

 

Sudbury:

Paul Loewenberg NDP: 37.9%

Rick Bartolucci Lib: 37%

Gerry Labelle Con: 19.3%

Pat Rogerson Green: 4.1%

 

Parkdale-High Park:

Cheri DiNovo NDP: 46.7%

Cortney Pasternak Lib: 32%

Joe Ganetakos Con: 15.3%

Justin Trottier Green: 4.6%

 

Bramalea-Gore-Malton:

Jagmeet Singh NDP: 34.1%

Kuldip Kular Lib: 31.6%

Sanjeev Manji Con: 26.4%

Pauline Thomhan Green: 6%

 

Beaches-East York:

Michael Prue NDP: 44.1%

Helen Burstyn Lib: 33.1%

Chris Menary Con: 17.8%

Shawn Ali Green: 2.5%

 

York South-Weston:

Paul Ferriera NDP: 44%

Laura Albanese Lib: 36%

Lan Daniel Con: 15.2%

Keith Jarret Green: 3.3%


I'm disappointed that they didn't do Ottawa Centre.

I'll have to look at our numbers, run some math and make a deduction from that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can I just say that I totally approve of the attempt to turn a corner of Toronto suburbia into a sort of Canadian Southall?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

wtf is a southall

[Verily]

wtf is a southall

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southall

Place where lots of South Asians live, I guess. Although I don't think Southall was that far ahead of parts of Mississauga or Scarborough on that.

[Linus Van Pelt]

These are definitely more plausible than the earlier poll given the strength of the NDP incumbents in Toronto, but note that this still has the Liberals, relative to 2007, at +7 in Beaches-East York, +3 in Parkdale-High Park, and +2 in Trinity-Spadina, obviously all in the opposite direction from the province. I'd say this probably isn't great news if you're hoping for an NDP pickup in Ottawa Centre. (And probably not if you're a Conservative in north Toronto either).

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Peel (Mississauga and Brampton) has a looooot of south asians.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brampton
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississauga#Demographics

"Brampton has 510,000 people. Brampton has the largest concentration of South Asians in Canada, making up 36% of Brampton's population"

Mississauga:
"South Asian   136,750   21.6"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough,_Ontario
"South Asian residents make up 22.0% of the population"

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Also it turns out Southall is a fictional place not a municipality. It's an arbitrary neighbourhood. Places like Malton or Malvern are very very south asian. The main mall in Malton has more Hindi on their signs than it has English.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malton,_Ontario

also this

[Filuwaúrdjan]

wtf is a southall

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southall

Place where lots of South Asians live, I guess. Although I don't think Southall was that far ahead of parts of Mississauga or Scarborough on that.

It was a reference to the very special politics of Southall

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

From http://www.punditsguide.ca


Bramlea
39.58% south asian

Miss BrSou
27.99% South Asian

Markham U
39.04% chinese
25.73% South Asian

Oak R Mark
22.11% Chinese

Richmond Hill
23.55% Chinese

Thornhill
36.63% Jewish

Scar SW
15.25% South Asian

Trinity Spa
17.63% Chinese

Egl Law
23.18% Jewish

Willowdale
31.19% Chinese

York Centre
24.36% Jewish

York West
19.03% Black
18.47% South Asian

Scar RR
31.12% Chinese
29.92% South Asian

Scar C
21.33% South Asian

Scar Guild
28.64% South Asian

Scar Agin
45.53% Chinese

York S Wstn
19.63% Black

[Hatman 🍁]

I was checking out Singh's facebook page the other day, and his campaign videos are all shot in the neighbourhoods, and the place looks like suburban hell. Not the kind of place that votes NDP.  So, good news all around.

And yeah, I think the Liberals will probably win Ottawa Centre at this point. It's a lot like those downtown Toronto ridings where the Liberals are getting a bump from people scared of the Tories even though strategic votes make no sense there.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I was checking out Singh's facebook page the other day, and his campaign videos are all shot in the neighbourhoods, and the place looks like suburban hell. Not the kind of place that votes NDP.  So, good news all around.

And yeah, I think the Liberals will probably win Ottawa Centre at this point. It's a lot like those downtown Toronto ridings where the Liberals are getting a bump from people scared of the Tories even though strategic votes make no sense there.

It's not caused by strategic voting. There are, to be sure, low-information voters everywhere who don't understand how ridings work, but there's no reason to think they would have suddenly increased this time around in a few concentrated geographical areas.

It has to do with the fact that in the very same year as Stephen Harper showed very skillfully how to win affluent suburbia and his rural base at the same time, and Jack Layton showed equally skillfully how to win urban centres and traditional industrial workers at the same time, both provincial opposition leaders seem to be ignoring these lessons and campaigning as if they're running in Ohio.

[MaxQue]

I was checking out Singh's facebook page the other day, and his campaign videos are all shot in the neighbourhoods, and the place looks like suburban hell. Not the kind of place that votes NDP.  So, good news all around.

And yeah, I think the Liberals will probably win Ottawa Centre at this point. It's a lot like those downtown Toronto ridings where the Liberals are getting a bump from people scared of the Tories even though strategic votes make no sense there.

It's not caused by strategic voting. There are, to be sure, low-information voters everywhere who don't understand how ridings work, but there's no reason to think they would have suddenly increased this time around in a few concentrated geographical areas.

It has to do with the fact that in the very same year as Stephen Harper showed very skillfully how to win affluent suburbia and his rural base at the same time, and Jack Layton showed equally skillfully how to win urban centres and traditional industrial workers at the same time, both provincial opposition leaders seem to be ignoring these lessons and campaigning as if they're running in Ohio.

I'll add than McGuinty Liberals seems to be able to manage with competence an electoral campaign, which is a thing than federal Liberals have forgot since a couple of years.

[mileslunn]

I would also add, there are some who vote on the idea of better go with the devil I know rather than the one I don't.  While this doesn't impact the NDP much, it might explain why some who voted Tory this past May in the federal election will vote for McGuinty.  Also a lot comes down to margins too.  While each party has their areas of strength, a 5% shift for any party results in about 20 seats so that is what makes it tough to predict.  Southern Ontario has a high population density relative to the rest of Canada so you have a whole whack of ridings that are quite similiar and will go the same way.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Progressive Conservatives - 34
Liberals - 32
New Democrats - 29
Greens - 5

http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/111011ENG.pdf


Of course, I have no sense of whether or not Leger is a good pollster.

[Holmes]

Oh, that's great. Honestly, all Canadian polls are okay. I think it's Compas that's really bias towards Consevatives though, and I believe that Nanos was the most accurate in the federal, fwiw. Harris-Decima was good too. Speaking of Nanos,

Lib - 37.7% (-0.4%)
PC - 34.4% (-0.3%)
NDP - 25.5% (+1.2%)
Green - 2.0% (-0.7%)

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F11-T504.pdf

Hardly any change, though. I'd like to see more polling to see if Leger or Nanos is correct.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Progressive Conservatives - 34
Liberals - 32
New Democrats - 29
Greens - 5

http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/111011ENG.pdf


Of course, I have no sense of whether or not Leger is a good pollster.

Why are you quoting my projection from earlier oh that's a new poll from reliable firm leger

[Hatman 🍁]

Angus Reid

PC: 34 (-2)
Lib: 33 (+1)
NDP: 26 (-)
Grn: 6 (-)

Usually the NDP vote goes down in these close races.

[Holmes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfoEtvMwGKw
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/topic/cityvote_ontario_2011/article/157134--cityvote-2011-riding-profile-bramalea-gore-malton

Could a victory for the NDP here be a blueprint for future wins in the region? Great local candidate, a grassroots campaign... I'll actually be devastated if Singh doesn't pull through again.

(favoruite line from the second video - 7% unemployment, better than rest of Ontario and rest of Canada!)

[Hatman 🍁]

Brampton-Springdale is another possible future pick up in the region, due to the high Indo-Canadian population

[Holmes]

Speaking of Ottawa Centre, if the 308 guy of all people is predicting an NDP win, I wouldn't be too nervous.

I enjoy how he thinks Gilles will get 65% of the vote. But it'll be 50NDP - 30PC - 15Lib. Maybe +/- 5% for the PC and Liberal numbers.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't trust the 308 guy for anything, so it's no comfort reading his numbers.

[Hash]

Yeah, 308 is a joke. He's like the new Dick Morris, some failed/flawed number-geek who is fed by the idiot media who wants to look hip with some articles from a "guy who crunches polls".

Came across some guy who said he normally voted NDP but was voting Liberal this time Nice to fall across. On an amusing "conservatives are people with anger issues" note, one of the people who canvassed today told me she once fell across a guy who took the lit, crumpled it up and threw it in her face. lol tories.

[RogueBeaver]

One thing's for certain: unless Hudak wins a majority, Dad will still be premier.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, 308 is a joke. He's like the new Dick Morris, some failed/flawed number-geek who is fed by the idiot media who wants to look hip with some articles from a "guy who crunches polls".

Came across some guy who said he normally voted NDP but was voting Liberal this time Nice to fall across.

He also dismesses many of his criticisms when people make them via comments.

When the elections is over, I'm going to advertise how much better I did. Maybe the media will take notice and not feed him so much.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Yeah, 308 is a joke. He's like the new Dick Morris, some failed/flawed number-geek who is fed by the idiot media who wants to look hip with some articles from a "guy who crunches polls".

Came across some guy who said he normally voted NDP but was voting Liberal this time Nice to fall across.

He also dismesses many of his criticisms when people make them via comments.

When the elections is over, I'm going to advertise how much better I did. Maybe the media will take notice and not feed him so much.

Don't count on it. I know from experience. Even your "friends" will doubt you.