When will Virginia be closer than Florida?

[Hitchabrut]

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[Hitchabrut]

I say we'll see this in 2008 and the morons in the media won't know what hit them.

[A18]

Florida is trending GOP faster than Virginia, but it'll take a while to catch up. Maybe 2016.

[phk]

Virginia will keep getting closer, Democrats should be in shooting range bar some major third party by 2016.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All this talk of "trends" is bunk.
Repeat after me:

IT DEPENDS WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE

[phk]

Well we flipped Fairfax County.. now for more counties to flip.

[JohnFKennedy]

2008, Florida goes Democrat and Virginia does too but by a narrower margin . (Ever the optimist)

[phk]

The only way to trend Florida Democrat, is to make Castro irrelevant. Then more Cubans would vote Democrat.

[King]

Then more Cubans would vote Democrat.

I doubt that would happen. Mexicans vote Democratic because they don't want the US to be like Mexico, a conservative-ish nation. Cubans vote Republican because they don't want the US to be like Cuba, a liberal-ish nation.

[A18]

Mexico isn't conservative, at least economically.

[phk]

MEXICO IS CONSERVATIVE DUMBASS.

[A18]

What an insightful post.

[Beet]

Well we flipped Fairfax County.. now for more counties to flip.

Thats the thing though, Fairfax is unique in that it is a large county just exiting the fast growing stage. It will take another 20 years for Loudon to reach where Fairfax is now. And by itself that county does not have nearly enough to swing VA. The key area is still either the Hampton Roads area, or the Richmond suburbs, and Kerry's performance showed no real signs of significant change in either place.

[Alcon]

Virginia: It may be closer, depending on the candidate, but will remain out of our reach for a good time. It will still flip faster than all southern states except for Florida, Missouri, and Arkansas.

Florida: Florida was more GOP this election than I expect in the future. Once we see the Bush pro-Hispanic effect gone and the Bush hurricane effect gone, I suspect Florida will be virtually right back where it was.

[Sam Spade]

Virginia: It may be closer, depending on the candidate, but will remain out of our reach for a good time. It will still flip faster than all southern states except for Florida, Missouri, and Arkansas.

Florida: Florida was more GOP this election than I expect in the future. Once we see the Bush pro-Hispanic effect gone and the Bush hurricane effect gone, I suspect Florida will be virtually right back where it was.

This is where I disagree (on Florida).  The Democrats can only pull so many votes out of the SE Gold Coast and that area isn't growing nearly as fast as the Republican areas of the state (especially the Panhandle).  Unless the Democrats make inroads into northern and central Florida, it will be hard for them to win Florida unless the GOP totally ignores turnout operations as they did in 2000.

[Akno21]

All this talk of "trends" is bunk.
Repeat after me:

IT DEPENDS WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE

IT DEPENDS WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE!

[Beet]

All this talk of "trends" is bunk.
Repeat after me:

IT DEPENDS WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE

IT DEPENDS WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE!

IT DEPENDS WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE!

(thank the Fraser-McGovern reforms for that)

[minionofmidas]

Well we flipped Fairfax County.. now for more counties to flip.

Thats the thing though, Fairfax is unique in that it is a large county just exiting the fast growing stage. It will take another 20 years for Loudon to reach where Fairfax is now. And by itself that county does not have nearly enough to swing VA. The key area is still either the Hampton Roads area, or the Richmond suburbs, and Kerry's performance showed no real signs of significant change in either place.

Democrats actually flipped about half a dozen counties and cities in Virginia...so did Republicans.

Northern Virginia - including the outer suburban counties as well - is currently trending pretty heavily Democrat. The same is true of the Richmond area. (Note that the outer parts of both areas are still heavily Republican, just becoming less so). Even further out, rural NE Virginia is meanwhile trending Rep...I don't know f-all about that area, and thus can't judge if that's "rural areas voting socially conservative" or "overspill Republican exurbanisation".
The Hampton Roads area, like many suburban areas with military traditions, has stopped trending Dem this time around, and has moved in the Republicans' direction. Whether this trend will hold remains to be seen.
Southwestern Virginia, once solidly Dem, is trending Republican but also bleeding population.
The centre of the state (exempting the Richmond area) shows a crazy patchwork quilt of Dem and Rep trends.
If the Rep advance in the SE is a 9/11 inspired one-off, I guess Dems are safely on their way to making Va. more Dem than Fla. by, say, 2012. Possibly even 2008, tho' that would require a continuing Rep trend in Florida.

PS: Of course, IT DEPENDS WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE
A candidate who'd appeal chiefly to the SW of the state, for example, would make the state more Dem than Florida in no time - even though he might well poll less than Kerry across the state. (He'd lose in the suburbs, but he'd lose in Florida's suburbs as well, and that state is more suburban.)

[True Democrat]

2020 or later.

[Gustaf]

2016 at the earliest is my guess. I think both states are trending Dem, but I don't see the Democrats reaching out to Southern whites any time soon, thus not doing all that much about VA.

[Smash255]

Obviously it  depends on the candidates, but supposing the candidates aren't from either state I say 2008 will be real close & 2012  VA will  be more Dem than FLA>  Fairfax county although not the only reason will be the biggest reason.

[phk]

Fairfax will become more painfully Democratic every election cycle.

Clinton could have carried 2004's VA in 1996.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Warner runs, Florida might still be closer than Virginia, because Warner would do well in Virginia.

[phk]

Bayh could have a shot in 2012, that is if he gets re-elected.

[A18]

Clinton could have carried a Virginia that's 54% GOP? Er, right.