2012 NDP leadership convention

[Peter the Lefty]

He's thinking about it. His problem might be that he won't have enough time to sell instamemberships by January. Also, Doer and Comartin have said they're not running, per the Hill Times. Cullen probably won't either because of his young kids, and Chow won't either for obvious reasons.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201108/30/01-4430135-succession-de-layton-mulcair-reflechit.php

What about Dewar?

[Peter the Lefty]

Wasn't Dewar's mother from Quebec?

[Peter the Lefty]

Any chance of a re-launch of the Quebec NDP?  I mean, considering that it will probably be like a heartland for them from now on, (unless they suddenly see a collapse in Quebecois support) federally, it makes little sense not to have a provincial NDP in Quebec. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, that's too bad.  At least it's nice to see that some potential Quebecois alternatives to Mulcair are emerging.  But are there any potential candidates who are from the more moderate wing of the party, but would still firmly oppose a merger with the Liberals?  If I were Canadian (and an NDP member, since that's where I'd fit ideologically), I'd probably support them.

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, that's too bad.  At least it's nice to see that some potential Quebecois alternatives to Mulcair are emerging.  But are there any potential candidates who are from the more moderate wing of the party, but would still firmly oppose a merger with the Liberals?  If I were Canadian (and an NDP member, since that's where I'd fit ideologically), I'd probably support them.

Mulcair?

Mulcair hasn't really rejected it.  He sorta dodged the question by saying the main priority should be to seek out supporters from Liberal ranks. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, that's too bad.  At least it's nice to see that some potential Quebecois alternatives to Mulcair are emerging.  But are there any potential candidates who are from the more moderate wing of the party, but would still firmly oppose a merger with the Liberals?  If I were Canadian (and an NDP member, since that's where I'd fit ideologically), I'd probably support them.

I don't know.  Something about Mulcair's Liberal past gives me a queasy feeling.  Especially the fact that he sat in the provincial cabinet while Charest waged war on unions, no?  For this reason, I'm leaning toward Paul Dewar, or Megan Leslie.  I could also see myself going for Topp.  Too bad I'm not in Canada.     

Mulcair hasn't really rejected it.  He sorta dodged the question by saying the main priority should be to seek out supporters from Liberal ranks. 

Well, if he wants to win, he has to say that. At the last convention, the delegates voted against a motion forbidding merger talks.

[Peter the Lefty]

Personally, I feel that both Leslie and Ashton would be shocked that you're discussing them in such horny-nerdy-boy terms.

Women do the same thing. Why do you think Obama got elected?

Well, if it's all about how good-looking they are, then draft Pierre-Luc Dusseault, I say! lol

[Peter the Lefty]

Any chance of someone hardly known, like Fin Donnelly (please tell me he's bilingual), Pierre Nantel, Paulina Ayala, Jamie Nicholls, or, someone else who's also a relative unknown, who might enter?  Someone who's not very well known, like Jack Layton in 2003.  Because frankly, none of the candidates seem to me like they could really be a good face of the party, since when I decided I liked Dewar the best, I don't think I'd really fully grasped the importance of being bilingual in Canada, especially the NDP.  Topp seems like someone with absolutely no charisma at all, and Mulcair's temper seems like it would easily turn off many voters.  Dewar isn't bilingual, enough said.  Martin Singh seems too pro-business, and I think Saganash's sovereigntist roots would scare away the Anglos.  I could see myself getting behind Nathan Cullen, but I also hope newer, fresher faces enter.  Any possibilities?

[Peter the Lefty]

Mulcair is, across Canada, Mulcair.
Topp is, thanks to the media, Topp.

In 2003, Blaikie was Blaikie, Nystrom was Nystrom, Comartin was Comartin, and Layton was "who is this guy", as he was only known in Toronto.

The NDP would need another "who is this guy", and the best person to be that guy is someone from Montreal or Quebec City.

Montreal has its own municipal parties, correct?  I guess Projet Montreal would probably be the Montreal municipal equivalent of the NDP, so I guess if they could have a city councilor from that party suddenly join the NDP and run for the leadership-though they'd be unlikely to win, unless Ed Broadbent were to withdraw his endorsement of Topp in favor of them.  Or perhaps a relatively unknown rookie Quebec MP-that is, one with at least a bit of experience who doesn't have any ties to the sovereigntists.  A tall order, I realize.

[Peter the Lefty]

So far, it appears to be Topp vs. Mulcair, and few people are paying attention to Dewar, Cullen, Saganash, or Singh.  So far, the field seems pathetic.  Topp is the "who is this guy?" candidate, but he's also the establishment candidate, paradoxically.  But there has to be an unknown who can take the role that Layton did in 2003.  I mean, there are 57 MP's from Quebec besides Mulcair and Saganash, each of whom is relatively unknown.  Any word on Ramond Cote, Hoang Mai, Jonathan Genest (even though he's pretty young), Anne-Marie Day, Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet, or others?

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, this is interesting: It seems Nathan Cullen is making himself the "cooperation" or "non-compete deals" candidate. 
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/cullen-proposes-running-joint-ndp-liberal-green-candidates-in-next-election-132071883.html

He seems determined to distinguish himself from Pat Martin though.  Martin will now probably either get behind him, or enter the race proposing an all-out merger. 

[Peter the Lefty]

The sort of people who might react in horror to the prospect of a party leader with union ties are the sort of people who will not vote for a social democratic party under any circumstances. End of.

I disagree. PEI especially is a place where this is untrue. In PEI a "Social Democrat" is a "really really left-wing person but someone I might stomach if I REALLY have to..." where as a Socialist is a "COMMUNIST OMG STALIN! STALIN!!! ARREST HIM!!!" and a Union Man is a "COMMUNIST OMG, STALIN! OR WAIT IS IT HITLER? OMG"

Almost as bad as the US! 

[Peter the Lefty]

I guess, from the debate, that my first choice would now be Nathan Cullen, if I were an NDP member.  I loved his sense of humor.  I also like his ideas about Proportional Representation and perhaps if Canada adopts it then it might possibly get the ball rolling on the issue here in the US (of course, no one's ever heard of it here...yet, at least).  And shockingly, my second choice would be Mulcair.  He seemed very well composed and skilled, and I actually think he'd do well as leader.  My third choice: probably Nash.  I liked her talk about an inclusive economy (as someone in the US, I long for such an economy to an amazing extent).  Dewar was very dull in English, and though I don't speak it, I could tell he was even duller in French.  I like Topp's ideas and policies, but I didn't like his style, especially the interrupting.  Saganash seems like he needs to learn a few relaxation exercises, frankly.  Chisholm just didn't seem to strike any chords.  Ashton seems promising, and like a potential leader someday, but she'll need to calm down a bit first.  And Martin Singh–what the heck is he doing in the NDP?  You'd think, given that his pro-business stances, that he'd be more of a right-leaning Liberal.  Mulcair and Cullen seem like they'd be the best skilled to take on Harper, but Cullen seems slightly more personable.  Any post-debate polls on leadership candidates?

[Peter the Lefty]

The thing is Mulcair is very difficult to deal with and is volatile and if he became leader he could sef-destruct.

In the short term Mulcair is best for the NDP in Quebec because he's a household name, but if the NDP picks someone else who is fluently bilingual like Topp or Nash that person will become well known as well and will have the the next three years to build profile. The NDP still has one major advantage in Quebec - their policies are exactly what Quebecers want at the federal level!

Would Cullen work for Quebec?  I hear he's also bilingual. 

[Peter the Lefty]

The point is that Mulcair does have some labour support. In any case now that the NDP has eliminated the 25% labour "carve-out" in the voting process, being the candidate of the labour movement is far lss meaningful than it used to be. BTW: Paul Dewar just got endorsed by 5 current and former chairs of the Manitoba Fed. of Labour. My sense is that labour is all over the map in this race.   

Seems like Singh is the only one who is sure not to get any labour support.  But is Cullen seen as someone who could manage to hold Quebec, or is he seen as too western? 

[Peter the Lefty]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFssYGITQhw
this kind of intense?

or this kind
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBl8Ddsaf4U

This kind, starting at the one-minute mark
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Im2UvBs_gfs
and this kind
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ-25HEkgi0

[Peter the Lefty]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFssYGITQhw
this kind of intense?

or this kind
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBl8Ddsaf4U

This kind, starting at the one-minute mark
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Im2UvBs_gfs
and this kind
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ-25HEkgi0

Oh wait, wrong link.  The first one should've been this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c66slmBWOmI&feature=related
start at about one minute.

[Peter the Lefty]

Nash actually seems to be making herself into, in the words of The Star, a practical radical.  At the debate, she was talking about bridging the gaps between business and labor (sorry, labour lol we Americans are so weird with spelling) and "combining their interests."  But the way she is talking about making the economy an NDP strength rather than a weakness seems to resemble Topp, but with more charisma.  
And to revise my original order: Nash would now be my first choice, Saganash the second, and Cullen the third.  That is, how I'd vote if I lived in Canada, and were an NDP member lol.  Here's a link to the article.  
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1077919--walkom-peggy-nash-pitches-a-pragmatic-radicalism-to-her-ndp

[Peter the Lefty]

Any type of witch-hunt against Mulcair for his dual-citizenship would be an equivalent of the birthers here in the US.  However, something noteworthy which I'm surprised that the other candidates aren't making an issue of is the fact that his wife ran as the UMP candidate in a French election, according to the article below.  It would certainly help candidates like Topp and Nash portray him as a rightist neoliberal since Topp's whole fuss about Mulcair's past serving in a cabinet led by Jean Charest seems to have fallen flat. 
http://www.torontosun.com/2012/01/16/ndps-mulcair-will-keep-french-citizenship

[Peter the Lefty]

Speaking of Adrian Dix, has he endorsed anyone yet?  If not, who would he be likeliest to endorse?

[Peter the Lefty]

And THAT my friends, is the EXACT attitude I was referring to when I said the NDP has an attitude in it that makes people want to leave.

It's one thing if it's over the gun registry or something like that, which was a mistake for Turmel to discipline that one MP over.  But if someone wants to deny gays of fundamental human rights, than they have absolutely NO place in the NDP. 

[Peter the Lefty]

And THAT my friends, is the EXACT attitude I was referring to when I said the NDP has an attitude in it that makes people want to leave.

It's one thing if it's over the gun registry
 or something like that, which was a mistake for Turmel to discipline that one MP over.  But if someone wants to deny gays of fundamental human rights, than they have absolutely NO place in the NDP. 

Is marriage a "fundamental human right"?

Yes it is, and there is a difference. If a guy asked his girlfriend "will you civil union me?", would it have the same meaning/power as "will you marry me?" And we shouldn't even have to debate it.  If the NDP considers it to be a fundamental human right, than it shouldn't have any MPs who oppose it.  Just like the Conservatives, who consider the right to practice a religion to be fundamental, shouldn't have any MP's who want to abolish religion because of that.  And the Bloc Québécois, which believes that Quebec has a right to sovereignty, shouldn't have any MPs who believe that Quebec should not have the right to self-determination.

[Peter the Lefty]

Mulcair defuses a fundraising flap.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/01/28/mulcair-denies-report-he-hasnt-donated-to-ndp/

Now I wonder if he will defuse the reports that after he left Quebec provincial politics, he considered joining the Conservatives.

[Peter the Lefty]

On another note, Turmel is killing you guys.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20120128/nanos-poll-liberals-tories-globe-CTV-20120128/

Yeah.  You can't blame her, though.  She's a freshman MP with no experience in politics.  It puzzles me to think that Jack chose her as his interim replacement.  I guess his cancer, wherever it was, was one which he thought he could beat, and then return to parliament and save the party.  Sigh...none of the candidates I like seem to be able to fully heal the wounds which Turmel has caused (though I would be cruel to be angry at her for it), except Cullen, who's joint nominations idea I just can't seem to get past.  I still wish Megan Leslie were running.  She would make a great leader.

[Peter the Lefty]

We did court him at the time as a courtesy. But ideologically he's a left-Liberal and so the possibility was always nonexistent. Liberals put more time into their courting- but they got another Quebec star shortly thereafter.

Yes, but didn't the negotiations go as far as talks regarding a cabinet position?