2012 NDP leadership convention

[mileslunn]

I don't want speculate who will or won't run, but whomever they choose should be someone who can keep unity between the Quebec and English Canada members, is left wing enough to keep the base happy but not so left wing it scares the majority of moderate Canadians.  More importantly the next leader should focus on the big issues that affect Canadians directly much Jack Layton did.  It may be tough to replace Layton, but his style of governance played a big role in the party's success so the next leader should embody this.  It will be interesting to see who Ed Broadbent endorses as he endorsed Layton despite the fact most of the caucus supported Bill Blaikie at the time.  If there is anyone who is good a spotting a potential winner it would be him.

[mileslunn]

I know he likely won't run, but how about Gary Doer?  He won three back to back majorities in a province that went solidly Conservative last federal election and he was able to cut taxes and balance the budget all while maintaining the party's commitment to social justice.  I think the NDP's big weakness is many see them as to beholden to unions and tax and spenders.  I think most Canadians actually like the NDP's ideals so if you can get someone who is fiscally responsible that would take away one more weapon against them from their opponenets.

[mileslunn]

Maybe I was too quick to say Mulcair wouldn't fall victim to Brison Syndrome. Not ideologically but in every other sense. We respect you, we want you where you are, we like your ideas... but we'll never elect you leader.

To be fair the Quebec Liberals are really a federalist party so I don't think you can call someone a turncoat for supporting it.  After all it has some Conservatives too.  Charest was a former PC leader and Lawrence Cannon was also a Quebec Liberal.  With no provincial NDP, what party was Mulcair suppose to support anyways?

I think his weakness is has a hot temper and I don't find him as likeable as Jack Layton.  Paul Dewar seems like a decent choice and being from Ottawa, what better to place to connect with both English Canada and Quebec when you consider he is bilingual and his riding overlooks the Ottawa River.  I don't know a lot about Nathan Cullen, but he seems like a principled decent guy.  I wonder if he will get any flack over his vote on the gun registry which he opposes.  Mind you his riding is quite rural and the population is overwhelmingly against it there.  I should add although not an NDP supporter myself, I think their policy of allowing a free vote on the gun registry is the most sensible as the divide seems more of a rural vs. urban rather than left vs. right.  The one notable exception is Quebec where the registry is popular throughout the province.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, Dewar's French is basically non-existent. For leadership purposes, Harper's is the bare minimum.

  What is Harper's French like anyways, it sounds fine to me, but consideirng my French is really bad (Je Parle en peu de Francais, mais moi Francais est tres mauvais) I cannot tell whether he speaks horrible French or speaks it fluently.  I will admit that this probably the biggest disadvantage for anybody from the West as due to lack of exposure French is not widely spoken in the West.  Heck even here in Toronto which is only 5 hours from Montreal, not many speak French.

[mileslunn]

Its true that of the leaders outside Quebec, not too many regardless of party have spoken it very well.  I am surprised though that Paul Dewar's is poor.  After all he is from Ottawa which is at least officially bilingual never mind his riding is only 10 minutes away from Quebec meaning I suspect he probably has crossed over the river on a fairly regular basis. 

[mileslunn]

Dunno- they have unilingual Anglos in Francophone ridings and vice-versa. My MP is one of the latter.

Which riding are you in for curiousity.  Most of the unilingual Anglos I suspect were the paper candidates who won unexpectedly such as Ruth Ellen Brosseau.  I am in Trinity-Spadina myself.

Also as for Ottawa, I realize Ottawa Centre is not as Francophone as Ottawa-Vanier or Ottawa-Orleans but it is only across the bridge from Quebec so I assume its proximity would have some impact on the number who can speak French.

[mileslunn]

I'm in NDG-Lachine, FYI.

. I believe the former MP Marlene Jennings was bilingual.  Up until the final week she seemed pretty safe, only then did the riding look vulnerable so I suspect they had a paper candidate who wasn't expecting to win.

[mileslunn]

If Julian's out, I'm voting for Pauly D.

Not an NDP supporter, but I would probably go the same way if I were one.  The reality is Layton did well due to likeability and much the same reason Howarth is doing well also.  Topp comes across as too much of your traditional union type, while Mulcair seems to have too explosive a temper.  Mulcair would make a good opposition leader, but doesn't seem like someone who could take the party to the next level.  Off course I don't expect the Liberals or NDP to actually "beat" the Tories, rather than the Tories will be removed from power when they "lose" not because someone else "wins". 

[mileslunn]

Now waiting on Nash and Ashton.

Mulcair: More private than public, but he's too much of a culture shock for the NDP regardless. Put it this way, he's a hell of a lot more civil than Coderre.

Isn't Ashton awfully young to be a leader?  I believe she is still in her 20s.  I can see maybe mid 30s, but 20s seems a little young for that type of position.

[mileslunn]

I made that point a while back, so yeah, I agree. Nash is another wildcard, though she's expressed reluctance about giving up her finance critic's position.

Considering how the next budget is probably going to be the most crucial the Tories bring down, I suspect you want someone who is at the top of their game as finance critic.  That may be the reason she is reluctant to throw her name in.

As for Denis Coderre, I cannot stand the guy myself.  When Ignatieff took over as leader, the Liberals were actually not far behind the Bloc in the polls, although with him as Quebec lieutenant I can see fully why Quebecers turned strongly against the Liberals.

[mileslunn]

I would still say Mulcair is on the left, maybe not as left leaning as your typical NDP member, but that doesn't make him right wing anymore than John Tory, Alison Redford and other Red Tories would be left wing.  Its all relative otherwise.  I don't think he is anymore to the right than Roy Romanow or Gary Doer and both were very successful in their respective provinces.

[mileslunn]

She seems a bit young, but my thinking is she is hoping the NDP wins the next election and she gets a cabinet post as a candidate and she raises her profile there and then once the leader steps down which if the party is successful, might not be until she is over 40, then she can make a serious run.  Still I agree she seems awfully young and if the party loses a whole wack of seats expect the next leader to go and lets remember with the NDP at its record height, its tough to say if this is their bridge to power much like the NDP in Nova Scotia or if they follow the route of the Quebec ADQ or Manitoba Liberals under Sharon Carstairs who saw their parties return back to their traditional levels of support.  Too early to really say and a lot off course will depend on how the Liberals and Conservative perform too. 

[mileslunn]

You don't think Dewar has any chance?  I agree it is a long shot, but who thought Dion would the Liberal leadership race back in 2006.  Sometimes everybody's second choice wins.  Same thing in Alberta when Alison Redford won as well.

[mileslunn]

A 3rd place candidate like Dewar will have a great shot at winning, with anti-Topp and anti-Mulcair voters going somewhere.

  Thats how Dion won the Liberal leadership race and Alison Redford won in Alberta PC leadership race.  Off course if either Mulcair or Topp finishes over 40% on the first ballot and the second place is under 25% then I suspect, the first person finisher will take it.  Lets remember while most of the NDP seats maybe in Quebec; over half of its membership is in BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba while Quebec has only 3% of the party's membership.  That could off course change by the convention.  One disadvantage being from Quebec has is if one is a provincial NDP member, they are automatically a federal member and considering Quebec is the only province without a provincial NDP, this creates a bit of a disadvantage.  With the Tories and Liberals by contrast, memberships are seperate so lack of provincial party is less of a handicap.

[mileslunn]

No, I don't think they are

I think they are.  Not all Sikhs wear turbans.  Only the more religious ones do.  In fact more don't than do.

[mileslunn]

In terms of the NDP getting the seats necessary to win, I can only see them winning through three possible scenarios

1.  People become so disgusted with the Tories they turn en masse towards whichever party is most likely to defeat them which go be either the NDP or Liberals depending on the cirumstance.  Otherwise an election similiar to 1984 and 1993 and in this case the NDP or Liberals would win in a whole whack of ridings they normally aren't competitive in.

2.  Coalition - The Tories get reduced to a minority, NDP forms the official opposition, the Liberals + NDP have more than half the seats so they form a coalition and thus the government.

3.  The Tories win another majority and the two parties realize merging is the only option much like the Alliance and PCs had to do.  Considering Mulcair is more centrist than most previous NDP leaders and Rae is more left wing than any leader since Trudeau, the ideological gap is much smaller than it has been in some time.  If a blue Liberal like John Manley or Frank McKenna were leader I could understand the uneasiness about merging and likewise if a more ideological socialist like Topp was the leader I could understand why some Liberals would be reluctant to merge, but as it stands now the hard left are a small faction of the party and of the Blue Liberals, most although not all have already gone over to the Tories anyways.  In the end I believe Canada will have a two party system with the Liberal Democrats on the left and Conservatives on the right. 

In this scenario Quebec will usually go Liberal Democrat except when the Tories have a Quebec leader and the LibDems have an Anglo leader from outside Quebec, Atlantic Canada could go either way, Ontario will lean Tory but be competitive and the same for Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while BC will be a battleground with a slight edge for the Tories and Alberta will go solidly Tory off course.

[mileslunn]

In terms of the suburbs, being from Vancouver originally and now in Toronto I can shed some light on the circumstances.  I should note many wealthy as well as centre-right voters will happily switch to the Liberals but would never consider going NDP.  Ridings like Oakville, Newmarket-Aurora, Thorhill, North Vancouver, Richmond are all ones the Tories could lose under the right circumstances to the Liberals but never the NDP.  The NDP appeal largely to those on the left thus asides from some protest votes most will come from the Liberals.  They could also gain amongst new immigrants as well as youth voters who traditionally have a low turnout.  Obama won in part in 2008 by bringing out many centre-left voters who normally don't vote. 

As for the 905 belt, Oshawa is trending Conservative but the NDP still has some support in the older parts of the city.  If split between North Oshawa and South Oshawa, North Oshawa will off course go Conservative, but I suspect the NDP would have a strong edge on South Oshawa.  As for Brampton and Mississauga, it is possible they could be like Scarborough although the Tories got in the 40s as opposed to 30s meaning they pretty much have to take all the Liberal votes as I doubt many Tory voters will swing over.  I would argue the NDP in Ontario should focus more on the 519 area code rather than 905.  Cities like Cambridge, Brantford, parts of Essex, Woodstock, Straford, St. Thomas, and Sarnia all have a large number of blue collar workers who have traditionally been favourable to the NDP, but in recent years have swung to the right.  The problem is these ridings include rural areas where the NDP gets clobbered thus making them harder to win as well as much like the Democrats have struggled in some of the blue collar areas of Western Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, the Liberals and NDP have faced the same problems in Southwestern Ontario.  They need to find a way to connect to those voters without alienating many of the urban progressives which is the challenge.  The 905 belt is no more Conservative than the Vancouver suburbs, in fact in the previous three elections, the Tories did better in the Vancouver suburbs than Toronto ones.  Only in the last election did the Tories do better in the Toronto suburbs.  Much of this is due to the fact in the previous three elections, the Liberals were the main opponent and they are more competitive in the 905 belt than GVRD whereas the NDP is stronger in the GVRD than 905 belt thus which one the Tories do better in depends on whom their opponent is. 

In terms of the GVRD, North Vancouver, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, and Richmond are the closest to the 905 belt.  If the Liberals are the main opponent, they are quite competitive as we saw in 2004 and 2006, but if it is the NDP they go solidly Tory.  The same happens provincially as in 1991 they went for the more centrist Liberals as opposed to the more right wing Social Credit and only when Campbell took over in 1996 did they go solidly BC Liberal.  I suspect next provincial election, they will opt for the Liberals over the upstart BC Conservatives although the NDP will probably win North Vancouver-Lonsdale due to vote splitting on the right.  The Eastern Suburbs and Northern Surrey are more favourable to the NDP as they are more working class and have a stronger union base.  As a general rule of thumb, excluding the RAV line, any riding the SkyTrain line passes through is at least competitive if not favourable to the NDP while those off the SkyTrain line tend to be either solidly Conservative or Liberal/Conservative battlegrounds.  The same happens provincially where the battlegrounds or NDP wins are in the SkyTrain ridings while the non-SkyTrain ridings usually go solidly BC Liberal or whatever the pro free enterprise coalition is.  Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam is somewhat complicated since although the NDP is competitive in Port Coquitlam, the Westwood Plateau is much like the North Shore and Richmond in terms of voting patterns.  Of the suburban ridings they don't hold, Fleetwood-Port Kells and Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission are the only ones they have an outside chance of winning.  Delta-Richmond East and South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale are semi rural so similiar to York-Simcoe, Durham, and Wellington-Halton Hills whereas the Fraser Valley is arguably one of the most Conservative areas outside of Alberta so no real comparison in Ontario.  You could have two right wing parties running there and the battle would be between them assuming the vote was evenly split. 

In terms of ethnic groups, I agree the South Asians and Blacks are communities the NDP has strong potential from, but much like amongst the White Canadian population, income, age, location also have an impact.  The Chinese community generally favoured the Liberals until recently, but not surprisingly has swung heavily over to the Conservatives.  I should note as a personal observation, I know many second generation Chinese-Canadians who are left of centre, otherwise even if winning the Chinese community is tough for the NDP, they could do well amongst the second generation here.

[mileslunn]

Oshara will be hard to take. NDP targets it since long, without any success.
The problem is than the auto industry is getting smaller there and than the place is getting more and more suburban, which is not good for NDP.

But redistricting can help, there, if it cuts the right areas.

If split between East Oshawa and West Oshawa, probably the same as now.  If split between North Oshawa and South Oshawa, then I think the NDP would have the edge in South Oshawa, but the Tories would easily take North Oshawa.

[mileslunn]

So will many BC seats swing to NDP?

Hmmm... NDP would strengthen their hold on the two Surrey seats they picked up last election, the reduced Liberal vote in Vancouver South (due to loss of incumbency) would help bring them close or in a winning position there (take a look at the Council poll map), depending on incumbent popularity, could probably pick up Vancouver Centre, Vancouver Island North and Nanaimo-Albirni? West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea-to-Sky Country might be a bit too far, but if the Liberal vote declines enough, they could be competitive there? I don't have my maps and vote spreadsheets in front of me, so I could be mistaken in some of these and there could be others I'm overlooking (V-Quadra?).

Vancouver Centre is unlikely with the current boundaries but quite possible under redistribution.  The problem is it includes the high end condos in Yaletown and Coal Harbour, but if a new riding excludes those, then I would say they have a good chance.  Provincially Vancouver-West End went solidly NDP last provincial election, but Vancouver-False Creek went solidly BC Liberal.  Vancouver Island North has been a tight race in all of the last four elections while the main problem with Nanaimo-Alberni is the resource communities where the NDP is strongest are losing people while communities like Parksville and Qualicum Beach which have a large affluent senior population are rapidly growing.  If the redistribution creates a riding from Departure Bay in Nanaimo to Comox and the splits the rest in two, you will then get a safe Conservative riding and two NDP ones as it would concentrate the Conservative votes into one riding.  Vancouver South usually votes NPA municipally and BC Liberal provincially so not likely never mind there are three times as many Chinese as South Asian voters so it is more like Richmond than Surrey.  West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country could go Liberal but definitely not NDP.  Although the NDP has a slight edge some times in the Sunshine Coast, Squamish, and Bowen Island, they are lucky if they can get even 10% in West Vancouver which is one of the richest if not the richest municipality in Canada.  Whistler is not Conservative, but not NDP either.  More Green Party and Liberal as it is a ski resort so quite liberal, but fairly wealthy too.  The clobbering the NDP will get in West Vancouver pretty much puts this out of reach unless the new riding somehow excludes both West Vancouver and Lions Bay which are NDP dead zones.

[mileslunn]

Speaking of North Vancouver, what happened there in 2004 and 2006? Why were those the only times that the Liberals won there?

North Vancouver is centre-right, not hard right so when facing the Liberals is can be competitive, but Tory vs. NDP means Tory hands down.  Also Ted White and Cindy Silver made a number of statements during the campaign that ticked off many voters in the riding whereas Don Bell was a popular former mayor and centre-right (a former Progressive Conservative and supporter of the centre-right BC Liberals).

[mileslunn]

...then there is suburban Montreal (aka: the "450" belt) which went totally NDP last May with the NDP even winning Pierrefonds-Dollard which is quite upper middle class and includes a lot of Jewish "nouveau riche" areas that are quite similar to Thornhill - so go figure!

The off island suburbs of Montreal is overwhelmingly Francophone and with few exceptions generally separtist/nationalist.  Whichever party wins the Quebec nationalist vote usually wins here.  In the 80s, it was the Mulroney PCs, the Bloc Quebecois from 1993 to the most recent election and then NDP.

[mileslunn]

I should add in terms of suburbs, although it varies from city to city, they usually aren't exactly NDP friendly.  Victoria is generally favourable to the NDP and they did win most of the St. John's suburbs although they went heavily Tory prior to Williams' ABC campaign thus whichever party wins the Newfie Nationalist vote usually wins here as if I am not mistaken those were the areas that are most heavily Irish and Catholic and also voted most heavily against joining Canada in 1949.  Quebec City suburbs varies as it went Bloc Quebecois in 1993, 1997, and 2004, Liberals in 2000, Tories in 2006 and 2008 and NDP in 2011 although the Tories did do better in the suburbs in all the past elections than the old city.  Stoney Creek went Tory despite the fact the NDP won Hamilton East-Stoney Creek while Liberal in 2006 and 2004 and a three way race in 2008 but narrowly going Tory, otherwise more akin to the 905 belt than Hamilton.  Winnipeg South, Saint Boniface, and Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia, the NDP got in the teens or low 20s so if the Tories were to lose here, it would be to the Liberals not NDP.  Provincially they only won here as pretty much almost all federal Liberals went NDP and that seems highly unlikely to happen next time around if ever.  As for Saskatchewan and Edmonton, they likely will win ridings in Saskatchewan if they get rid of the mixed urban/rural ones and have the Saskatoon and Regina ridings stay entirely within the city limits.  As for Edmonton, again 5 of the 8 ridings extend beyond the city limits thus the problem here.  The centre-left vote in Edmonton is pretty fluid and tends to swing solidly behind whichever party is most likely to beat the Tories.  It went NDP provincially in 1986 and the Tories main opponent in 1988 and 2011 federally was the NDP, whereas provincially in 1993, 1997, and 2004 it went Liberal and that was their main opponent federally from 1993-2004.  I doubt they will win many here, but certainly 2 seats is not out of the realm and maybe three if really lucky.  In the case of the BC Interior, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo seems the only possibility, but I suspect if it becomes a Tory vs. NDP race, it will become a bellwether like it is provincially thus usually favouring the pro free enterprise party (Tories) over the social Democrats (NDP) by a narrow margin.  BC Southern Interior and Skeena-Bulkley Valley do have Conservative pockets in the West of BC Southern Interior (in around Osoyoos) and east of Skeena-Bulkley Valley (areas east of Terrace) so these could become vulnerable depending on how they are split up or perhaps even more secure.  

Sorry for all the cross postings.  Been a while that I have been on here.

[mileslunn]

Vancouver Centre is definitely a huge NDP target. Sure, it has its right wing parts, but you will note how much vote splitting there is in that riding.

I think it depends on how it is drawn up.  The problem is the right wing areas are the fastest growing parts.  Off course the riding will likely be split into almost two thus the NDP has a good chance of taking the one that doesn't include Yaletown and Coal Harbour, especially if they exclude both.  Also even with the vote splitting, many urban voters are quite progressive on the environment and foreign policy thus they will go Green Party or Liberals, but they also want their taxes cut thus why they won't go NDP.  In many ways it is sort of like Manhattan which votes heavily Democrat, but I somehow doubt the NDP would do well there considering how wealthy it is unless off course Harper was as extreme as Santorum which he is not. 

[mileslunn]

In terms of Winnipeg Suburbs, I think the NDP winning there will be harder than some here suggest.  Winnipeg North and Elmwood-Transcona could easily go NDP and maybe Winnipeg South centre if the Liberals disappear which as I have emphasized earlier that is a really big if.  After the 1993 election disaster, the PCs never recovered, but they didn't disappear either and I tend to think the Liberals will follow a similiar path and then eventually merge with the NDP.  In the case of Winnipeg South and Saint Boniface, the Tories got over 50% and the Liberals over 30% so you would need pretty much every Liberal vote to swing to the NDP as well as some soft Tory voters.  While it is true they did well provincially there, that was only after they had been in power, thus I would think the NDP would have to win first and then prove they were really a centrist party before either would swing in their favour.  The demographics in both ridings aren't exactly NDP friendly.

As for Saskatchewan, it is true the NDP can win even with the mixed urban/rural splits, but makes it a lot more difficult and besides I think the strong economy probably is their biggest obstacle.  When people are doing well, a party that promises less government and lower taxes will likely be the most appealing whereas when struggling a party that promises to restrain the excesses of capitalism and more social programs is where people will gravitate to.  Saskatchewan may have historically gone NDP, but historically it has usually been one of the poorer, not one of the richer provinces as it is today.  Off course if commodity prices drop sharply that could change in which case I suspect the newfound strength of parties on the right would evaporate.

[mileslunn]

Recent polls have shown the NDP is ahead on the Prairies, so it's clear they're ahead in some of those ridings.

Saskatchewan/Manitoba are really small samples much like Atlantic Canada so I would use caution here.  I should note Forum had a similiar number one week before last election and we all know what the results were.  Likewise I've seen some polls with the Tories as high as 67% in Saskitoba.  I usually take the average of the polls for this region.  Likewise I really doubt the NDP are over 30% in Alberta as a whole.  In Edmonton perhaps, but Calgary and Rural Alberta have always been hostile areas to the NDP and I cannot see that changing anytime soon.  The NDP though may be ahead in BC although some of it could be a spillover from provincial politics as I seem to recall seeing a few polls putting the Liberals in front in Ontario in and around the provincial eleciton, but not at the moment.  Finally the economy is doing really well in Saskatchewan and Manitoba so not exactly the kind of thing that would cause people to turn sharply against the federal government.  People in Central Canada have far more reason to swing against the Tories than in the Prairies.