2012 NDP leadership convention

[lilTommy]

While I'm nowhere near the centre ideologically, I know the NDP must move to the centre to get elected, and I am perfectly comfortable with that, as long as the goal will always be a social democratic country. We need to move to the centre, and then move back to the left, taking Canadians with us in the process.

I think this is what many social democrats like myself, Hatman,my guess Holmes too... see as the way to win the government. My saying is reverse what the Liberals did..." Run from the centre, govern from the left".
Also, policy is decided by the elected delegates at convention... and in that sense it will still be a mostly Left-of-Centre policy book. Its the messaging that will help, in some ways we can talk openly progressive (taxes, social policy) in other areas we need to speak more moderately (resources development, economic management).

[lilTommy]

Have fun guys: Dumont will moderate your Sunday debate.

http://fr.canoe.ca/infos/quebeccanada/archives/2012/03/20120301-060651.html

What?

Well wasn't that a surprise... i can see the logic Chantal Vallerand has put out there, plus if the party had chosen a more sovereigntist moderator well theres some fodder for the Tories. And looks like its working at getting attention stired up for one of the last (wait last?) debates. Hes suppose to be neutral and impartial and so far i have been impressed with all the moderators at that and at forcing the candidates to give up more details and be more concrete.

[lilTommy]

I need to get online on the wknd more The NDP updated the membership numbers...

Electoral roll per province:

AB - 9800
BC - 39859
MB - 11,991
NB - 946
NL - 974
NS - 3904
NT - 124
NU - 24
ON - 36,965
PEI - 262
QC - 13,987
SK - 11,243
YK - 747
Out of country: 74
Unknown due to incomplete addresses: 252
Total electoral roll: 131,152

*Note: party is contacting those with incomplete addresses via e-mail and phone to ensure ballot packages can be sent
*Note: some provinces appear slightly lower than previously stated due to elimination of duplications on electoral list

That's another 1,100 for B.C. and 1 721 for Quebec.

Dewar - Agreed, great guy but his poor french and good guy image (just look when he went on the offensive at the debates, thats offense?) he would make a wonderful Minister but to get to government we need someone who can take on Harper/Rae and i don't think Nash is up to it either, shes an admitted conciliator, negotiator... and thats great IN gov't but to get there.
I'm not concerned about Mulcair... if he is all that people say, first why run for the NDP at all?... it was a huge victory but not a sure thing, and even in 08 he was close, and it was a fight to win, so if he wanted power and all that he would have bolted to the tories.

[lilTommy]

Well, I cast my ballot.

1. Mulcair
2. Nash
3. Ashton
4. Dewar
5. Cullen
6. Singh
7. Saganash
8. Topp

Yup, Saganash was still there. Which is good, any reason to rank Topp lower is welcome.

I got my ballot too... i'm still debating if i want to live vote or online... My ballot only changes after your 2nd choice but at that point it doesn't matter now does it. I have mixed feelings about Saganash dropping out, i liked him but found he struggled in english and since i feel Dewar is lacking in french and that disqualifies him... the same applies. One last debate to go!

[lilTommy]

Oh no insult to either Dewar or Saganash, but being PM in canada i have to say being at least bilingual fluently has to be a given. Harper angers me cause he seems barely pasable in french but they don't give a damn about quebec so. Given Saganash's first language is Cree, which isn't hugely spoken outside the Nord-Quebec region hes very impressive. Infact 22minutes did a spoof where three candidates debated in spanish since Nash, Ashton and i think Cullen (someone can correct me) are tri-lingual... infact Ashton can speak i believe 6...
But he seemed to struggled to fluidly express himself in english, he will make an impressive Minister some day.

[lilTommy]

Sorry some news...

Saganash endorses Mulcair...
http://www.abitibiexpress.ca/Actualites/Politique/2012-03-07/article-2917677/Saganash-appuie-Mulcair-pour-la-chefferie-du-NPD/1

the first newspaper endorsement... Le Devoir endorses Mulcair http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/344420/nouveau-parti-democratique-mulcair-chef

Forum released a poll but i don't have an account so i can't link it.
https://www.forumresearch.com/PollsLogin.asp?c=ar95eryrn5r5&f=MHJED_Pn0nqn-9vqr_-_Srqr4ny_V557r5_c1yy_(S147z_er5rn4pu)_(FDEFDFDI).2qs

Leader / BC / AB / PR / ON / QC / AT / CAN / M / F

Mulcair / 25 / 12 / 26 / 25 / 37 / 30 / 27 / 25 / 29

Topp / 20 / 12 / 30 / 24 / 19 / 27 / 21 / 18 / 24

Nash /20 / 12 / 25 / 27 / 16 / 27 / 22 / 18 / 26

[lilTommy]

Damn it!  I may just end up having to put him first on my hypothetical ballot.  I really hope he at least makes clear his support for a Palestinian state (or lack thereof) or opposition to Israeli settlements (or lack thereof).  Not to mention the things the Charest government did while he was in it, and his explanation of his flirtations with the Conservatives seem less-than-satisfactory to me.  He also has some explaining to do regarding his Bay-Street donors.  But I can't see anyone else leading the NDP to power, but I really wish it didn't have to be with his approach.  I really wish Topp had more charisma, he'd be great if it weren't for that.  I STILL wish Megan Leslie or Peter Julian were running.  Nash needs to get to Quebec and work really hard campaigning if she wants to hang onto it, by the look of this poll.  She'll have a bit of time, but she'd still have a helluva lot of work to do (I'm surprised they're so unfavorable to her.  Is it that her French sounds too European? lol).

By the way, just out of curiosity...are Andrea Horwath and Adrian Dix likely or expected to make endorsements?  I'm a bit surprised that they haven't yet, seeing as they could be potential kingmakers (or queenmakers, if one or both of them go for Nash).  Dix especially.

Well in regards to the Middle east, its well known why he is more pro0Israel since his seat is very jewish; but i believe he has said he support party policy on the issues... my issue with him was how he treated Libby.
What don't you like about his explanation? i'm pretty sure its what actually happened;
Topp also has Bay street backers who have given larger sums of money then Mulcair who has more but given less (from what i remember) so Mulcair ain't the only one. Unfortunately in the days of post-gov't funding parties have to generate funds. I'm glad to see there are some progressives on bay street! i hope
Topp, in my opinion was never going to win; No seat (so another year without a leader!) NO elected experience outside of ACTRA and the NDP, and his campaign has been far too aggressive and blatantly anti-mulcair. Is he had one, i think Mulcair would had resigned.... i think Topp has made the blood that bad between the two. I agree i wish Nash had more charisma to her and the french thing i don't get either... a quebecer can maybe jump in, i'm franco-ontarian so my accents probably off too
Hmmm i thought most leaders haven't endorsed (except Michaels in NFLD)? I know the premiers haven't endorsed anyone... makes sense, who wants to divide.

If you don't want Mulcair as your first spot, don't. I doubt this is going to be a first or even second round win for anyone.

I think Libby made the wrong choice in Topp, i thought she would have found a better place within the Nash camp? I wonder how many Topp initial supporters regret their choice to endorse him early on?

[lilTommy]

Sorry it came from a forum poll i believe...

Forum released a poll but i don't have an account so i can't link it.
https://www.forumresearch.com/PollsLogin.asp?c=ar95eryrn5r5&f=MHJED_Pn0nqn-9vqr_-_Srqr4ny_V557r5_c1yy_(S147z_er5rn4pu)_(FDEFDFDI).2qs

Leader / BC / AB / PR / ON / QC / AT / CAN / M / F

Mulcair / 25 / 12 / 26 / 25 / 37 / 30 / 27 / 25 / 29

Topp / 20 / 12 / 30 / 24 / 19 / 27 / 21 / 18 / 24

Nash /20 / 12 / 25 / 27 / 16 / 27 / 22 / 18 / 26

[lilTommy]

I was over at Rabble.ca and thats where i grabbed the numbers... looks like it was a pool of all canadians... not just NDP members

"Forum Research polled Canadians (n=1675, 5 Mar) with different putative NDP leaders at the helm.  They seem to indicate that with Topp or Nash, we're back in 4th place in Québec.  The results are:"

Leader/Cons/Lib/NDP/Green/Other/Undec

Mulcair/29/21/27/7/4/3/9
Topp/31/23/21/7/6/3/9
Nash/30/22/22/8/6/3/8
Unspecified/33/22/25/4/5/1/11

More NDP numbers (not repartitioning undecided):

Leader/BC/AB/PRA/ON/QC/ATL/CANADA/MALE/FEMALE

Mulcair/25/12/26/25/37/30/27/25/29
Topp/20/12/30/24/19/27/21/18/24
Nash/20/12/25/27/16/27/22/18/26

[lilTommy]

Classy Ed, Classy... seems like the membership hasn't liked your annointed choice Topp and now you look desperate. I love the guy, but Jeez Ed for a guy who doesn't want to be the liberals this sure is a liberal thing to do.

[lilTommy]

This conversation is pretty amusing given the fact that Layton's platform last year was well to the right of Blair's in 1997

That seems so long ago to me , how so? can you give us a little comparison please?

Alos, there is all kinds of push back in the media about Broadbents "moment", and Mulcair taking the high road... he really has done a good job of keeping his infamous (which i don't buy) fury in check... yes this is something new to the NDP but who says new blood and a winning character can't do some good. I am hearing some people say Mulcair did a 180 on the parties drug policy? i can't find anyting that says that? Its probably not a huge vote changer for most, but some in the youth wing might not like that too much, in fact i don't like it that much!

[lilTommy]

Here's an interesting list, former leadership candidates endrosements (via rabble, give credit eh:

Mulcair: James Laxer, John Paul Harney, Lorne Nystrom, Steven Langdon, Ian Waddell = 5

Nash: Alexa McDonough, Pierre Ducasse = 2

Topp: Ed Broadbent = 1

Unaligned: Douglas Campbell, Audrey McLaughlin, Dave Barrett, Svend Robinson, Marcel Hatch, Bill Blaikie, Joe Comartin, Bev Meslo = 8

Deceased: Tommy Douglas, David Lewis, Frank Howard, Rosemary Brown, Simon de Jong, Jack Layton = 6 (i thought it would have been hilarious if one of them had endoresed someone)

Left Party: Howard McCurdy, Roger Lagasse = 2

Deceased and Left Party: Hazen Argue = 1

 - Mulcair actually has a pretty broad range of support of moderates & leftists:
John Harney - first fluently bilingual candidate pushing growth in Quebec
James Laxer - father of nationalist/socialist "Waffle", runner up to Broadbent
Lorne Nystrom - one of the most "moderate" candidates who had strong support in western Canada, one of the youngest MPs elected
Steven Langdon - associated with Ontario Labour establishment wing of NDP

[lilTommy]

I know! same here, i did a wiki search and i am "reading into it" that he left after he got a nomination snub...
"McCurdy campaigned for the Ontario New Democratic Party nomination in Windsor—Sandwich in the buildup to the 1995 provincial election, but was unexpectedly defeated by Arlene Rousseau. McCurdy had been endorsed by Premier Bob Rae, while Rousseau was an ally of party dissidents such as Peter Kormos."

But as of 2003 he had endorsed Blaikie... odd, hes fallen into mild obscurity. A windsrr Dipper might know more.

[lilTommy]

I think today are the candidate speaches/presentations and then a Jack Layton tribute tonight at 7pm.

yup first results in the morning, probably go at least three rounds depending on how many decide to drop out early on.

I'm watching it live on CPAC as well

[lilTommy]

SO far yes... it was clearly Cullen, personable and understated and very jack-esk but all him. I really like his simple presentation

Paul was all hype, very clearly different from Cullen and off putting, but brought out some big guns i think. His french is still terrible and i think that will be his undoing, even after this speach.

Brian also brough out Biggies like Shirley Douglas and Gordon Pinsent... He sounds better than i have seen him in the past, confident and passionate, but hes not saying anything new (ok we know your a social democrat) For me, he has been the divisive candidate here and with his too-quick-jump into the leadership, attachs on Mulcair and Eds seniors moment... i'm not sure he sold it to undecideds.

[lilTommy]

... I could eat Dewar for breakfast with my franco-ontarian-ness

Ok, Niki just came out with a Madona mic... strutted up there like tony robbins... hilarious, that just made my day! ... she doesn't sound angry or have angy eyebrows; shes impressing me coming off comfortable and NO table to talk to, like cullen. i actually ranked her higher than i had intended earlier this week.

[lilTommy]

Well Mulcair is not stupid, or vengeful by the looks of things. He needed to place Libby back into Deputy Leader. We will see how he shuffles the caucus... i hope he keeps Nash in Finance i felt she was doing a wonderful job there. Cullen will get a plum spot too me thinks. Mulcair needs to bring the party together and keeping the more left wing aspects of the party happy is key, so Ashton better also be given something important to play with.

Topp shouldn't run, but if he does he should run in Sask since thats where most of his "gov't experience" comes from. But i agree new blood and i expect to see some tougher nomination battles coming.

His acceptance speach was flat, and was probably the speak he wanted to give on Sat... but i chalk that to being tired and having a long ass day... since the interview he gave with Mansbridge was 10x better then that speach. Did he say he was an NDP member in 75?

Anyway... the biggest changes will be in the messaging i think; one thing i read was he dose support the change from "democratic socialism" in the constitution... but to what? if its "Social Democratic" thats fine and dandy.... anything less and then your going to have a messy fight.

[lilTommy]

Singh running in the leadership race, and focusing much of the membership drive around the SA community has done nothing but help the party develop itself there. Same can be said about Jagmeet in the 905, hes also very young and social media savy which helps the party in general.
The majority gives the NDP 4 years to build in these target areas; your seeing strong candidates start to step up in SWON and small-city/mixed ridings like Hatman mentioned (Grant Robertson is one, in Huron-Bruce), also some candidates just won cause they have been the perenial candidate (Dan Harris in SSW who ran 6 or 7 times and was the most familiar of all three candidates in May). Some riding sjust swing with the government (Peterborough was known as a swing riding) In Oshawa, the NDP needs to nominate someone from outside the Union, i agree with everyone the demographics are changing to a less industrial more commuter community. Someone with municipal experience would help attract those who are more tory leaning to some degree.
Another area the NDP can target is those few ridings in the Niagara that we not NDP (St. Catherines and Niagara Falls) which was mentioned earlier too. Eastern Ontario is going to be the toughest place but as we saw in May in places like Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry... an area where we were excited to hit 5%, we tied the Liberals federally and almost provincially... I don't think there is much chance of a pickup unless the MPs retire and NDP continues to surge, but we can't overlook those areas either.
Also, i would hope with Mulcairs win he can attract (or should be trying to) some more candidates in SASK/MAN who were former ministers or MLA, some like Janice MacKinnon.

We can speculate but it all depends on how the ridings are re-oriented for 2015. Great Discussion so far.

[lilTommy]

Well, in theory, yes, but it all depends how effectively the NDP can use their position during the current budget. If it doesn't work out, an election might look good for Andrea. I mean, Hudak's a total tool and McGuinty is toxic.

15 seats? Sounds wrong. It's probably based on their crappy regional results. No way that the PC is ahead in Northern Ontario - it's probably closer to 45 NDP/30 PC/20 Lib. Small subsamples, margins of error, etc etc.


Léger federal poll: 33 NDP/32 CPC/19 LBP/8 Green

QC: 47 NDP/ 29 BQ/ 10 CPC/ 10 LBP
ON: 39 CPC/ 26 NDP/ 25 LBC

Ugh, even the provincial NDP is beating the federal party now.

There was an interesting articule in teh Globe about Adnrea and weather or not pushing an election for short term possible gains is best; I agree witht he comments that its best to work with the Liberals, it shows that Andrea can be a serious negotiator (reminisent of Jack in that sense) and in the meantime the NDP is getting all kinds of attention for the proposals they are making for Budget changes... the tories look bad for saying "No, Not at all " and now have zero attention while the NDP and Liberals negotiate.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/adam-radwanski/why-ontarios-ndp-isnt-drawing-a-line-in-the-budgetary-sand/article2392569/

[lilTommy]

I Agree that Durham region is much more demographically favourable to the NDP then say York (incomes are not as high, industrial history in the Auto sector (blue collar jobs), 90 win history in almost all the old ridings). Once we have redistribution ridings like Oshawa (if split on a N-S) become huge targets, as well as others... but If Holland runs and Flaherty runs those are two stars and the NDP really wont have a shot unless we can come up with equal stars.
The NDP did best in scarboroughs working class ridings, ethniclly diverse ridings and some older working class areas... Agincourt is solid Liberal, but Rathika and Harris now can work to target Centre, Guildwood (wealthier so less favourable) and Agincourt.
Peel is not an area to overlook either but ethnic voting paterns will be more important here, as in getting more strong south asian candidates running particularly in Brampton.
I don't agree that Vancouver-False Creek is like St. Pauls though... St.Pauls feel like old money (Forest Hill, Mount Pleasant), with a mix of mid-town yuppie. I don't see that in VFC, which is new money... maybe the yuppie thing is comparable
Give Ontario some time, you saw hoe long it took for us to buy-into the Conservative story; in fact i think the Liberals need to strengthen themselves so tehy can win ridings the NDP have no chance at (Etobicoke Centre, Eglington-Lawrence, Don Valley West) those would be gains from the Cons. No matter what i think the Liberals will never die in ontario, particularly in Urban cores like Ottawa and Toronto...The NDP should also be targeting University ridings (Kingston, Guelph, Peterborough, St. Catherines) These are ridings the NDP can to some degree win over with Mulcairs emphasis on economic management, strong policy can play well, some of these are also industrial (or former) cities.