2012 NDP leadership convention

[lilTommy]

Saganash and Mulcair are going to be on 22 Minutes tonight at 8:30. Of course, I have a lab to go to. sigh.

They all were on last night, am american style attack NDP debate, it was pretty funny... Nash made fun of Mulcairs beard; Mulcair called nash a commie, Dewar will build a moon base... etc
The even had a spanish-off dedate.

[lilTommy]

Bay St. ponying up for Topp.

http://blogs.ottawacitizen.com/2012/02/02/bay-street-ponies-up-for-topp-leadership-bid/

Interesting. Coordinated effort to destroy the NDP?

This makes me dislike Topp and start to distrust him even more... with all his fervent left-wing talk to draw in the base, this makes me think he might have some alterior motives. I hate to think that about any of them! but this makes me a wonder

[lilTommy]

I had that same robo call and so did my boyfriend... it was hilarious cause we were in the same room and no more then 10mins apart did the calls come.

The Toronto-Danforth by-election is now on for march 12... i expect to see the leadership candidates all over the riding... Dewar seems to be first out of the gate.

I think the Bev issue is the same as the long gun, she spoke out against probably cause she was getting a large amount of pressure to do so (this is my perseption, she could have legit opposed it but i doubt it); just like Niki and Rafferty all did about the long gun.

[lilTommy]

http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/59749-ns-cabinet-ministers-back-federal-ndp-hopeful-mulcair

With Chisholm out that made NS a very nice target; and those are big endorsements, 4 cabinet ministers including NS finance minister Steele.

[lilTommy]

Are there any organised factions in the NDP at the moment? And if so who are they routing for?

The only ones i can think of are the Socialist Caucus (those are the leftist of the left, trots, commies, true socialists) but i don't know if they have outright supported anyone. And i'm not sure if any of those candidates want it.
YNDC; Young New Democrats Caucus (i think thats the name) is the only other one which is obvious enough what it is. again i doubt they do block things, haven't really ever i think

[lilTommy]

Nash also gets two more MPS: Laurin Liu (Rivière-des-Mille-Îles) et Élaine Michaud (Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier)

[lilTommy]

Yes she was, but so were most people at one time or another (Borg, Freeman, Dube to mention some) since esp at the beginning the party was really putting most of it resources on making sure Mulcair won... then as he numbers started to improve MPs like Borg actually started to campaign.

[lilTommy]

Two more MPs for Mulcair today
 - the much maligned Ruth Ellen Brosseau (Mulcair really went out of his way to take her under his wing, defend her and try to teach her, so has fellow Trois-Rivieres MP Robert Aubin) also Denis Blanchette has endorse Mulcair

[lilTommy]

So of those who watched the French debate, should Dewar drop out?

[lilTommy]

Dewar has had some good ideas and some great support; but his lacking french and the jump-the-gun-deputy choice of Angus (another barely bilingual Ontarian) are deal-breakers for me.

[lilTommy]

Hey, Charlie is a fine man.

Oh no insult meant, i frakin' love Charlie!.... but as deputy leader when the leader is also from ontario... not a great choice.

Boulerice is a Topp man? if were just looking at quebers as deputy, there is Boivin who could do it (female vs male leader too)

The Deupty leader is going to really depend on who the leader is (same as above, if Mulcair is leader we don't want the deputy to be from PQ as well and so on with that same logic)

[lilTommy]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/topp-battles-to-regain-front-runner-status-in-ndp-race/article2338679/

Well people wanted the gloves to come off didn't they?
I agree that Dewars lack of fluency in french is a terrible downside... He should step out of the race.
I do not agree that Mulcair is that much of Liberal centrist threat; not understanding the PQ provincial scene strikes me as odd from Topp (if your a federalist your choices are the PLQ or greens, and if you want to get elected just the PLQ. he fails to note that i can think of two other federal NDPers who are/were PLQ MNAs... Henri-francois Gautrin and Nathalie Rocheford)

Topp will have NO SEAT (and ZERO electoral experience) meaning we run the risk of another Turmel (shes done the best she can and she just counting the days now) situation coming about... two leaders one in the house another out-and-about.
Topp from the get go struck me as being an opportunist... Jack wasn't even buried when he stepped up and took the "annointed-by-jack" monicker, that has always come across as distasteful to me. He should step out of the race too.

It should be a Mulcair-Nash-Cullen-Ashton race, Yes i totally think Topp should drop out before Ashton does
(Singh was a given, hes made his name know and will be a fantastic NS candidate in 2015)

[lilTommy]

Might as well ask it here. I finally got my NDP card in the mail, and Horwath is on it. So I'm assuming other provinces have their provincial leader on the card as well. So what's on Quebec's card?

Last time I got a card, there was no one on it. I think each province decides on what to do, or even to have a card in the first place.

Mine is old school, with the old logo... I'd rather a big'ole picture of andrea
Hmmm would it be so bad if all the cards in quebec had pictures of Tommy Douglas and Jack Layton all over them? lol

The NDP is unique in that your a member of the provincial party and that rolls up and creates the federal membership... except in quebec... which is why i always did and still do want a NPDQ but thats another long story eh

[lilTommy]

... On that note, somehow people don't think Pauls french is that bad?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/dewar-counters-french-flak-with-quebec-caucus-support-in-ndp-race/article2341985/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Home&utm_content=2341985

- Hélène Laverdière and Hoang Mai (both i would say big names among the PQ MPs) endorse Paul...

Topp WOULD ask an MP from quebec to step aside for him... the last minutes of the interview. Jack never ask anyone to step down...
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Politics/1244504890/ID=2198024357

[lilTommy]

Membership numbers are out and they are IMPRESSIVE! to say the least:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/21/pol-ndp-membership-numbers.html

http://blogs.canada.com/2012/02/21/ndp-leadership-membership-numbers-rise-across-the-country-with-huge-jump-in-quebec/

FEB 2012              OCTOBER 2011

AB –     10,249              9033
BC –     38,735              30,000
MB –     12056              10,307
NB –     955                    (Not previously reported)
NL –      1030                  200
NS –     3844                  1300
NT/NU/YK – 924         (Not previously reported)
ON –      36,760              22,225
PE –      268                     135
QC –       12,266             1695
SK –      11,264              8929

TOTAL 128,351           83,824

Looks like three tiers of Provinces: ON & BC with 30+ members, but add up to 58% of the membership if my math is right; AB, PQ, MB, SK with 10+ adds up to about 35% of the membership; all the rest which is about 7%

Those are good numbers in Quebec... but i know they were hoping for 15K. Other good news is strong numbers in MB and NS where we are the go'ts AND strong numbers in SK where the party took a beating in last years provincial election.

Thoughts?

[lilTommy]

Surprised at Alberta numbers.

I'm partially surprised... the Liberal brand in ALTA is horrible, so where else can progressive minded voters go? the NDP having the ONLY opposition MP helps to some degree i think in getting the brand out there. On the prov level, Brian Masson (leader) is the most experienced of all the leaders (they are all less then what 2yrs as leaders?) also the NDP is seen (what i can see) as the only stable and reliable opposition party... the liberals are a mess and wildrose is Reform-in-carnate. I'm hoping that by 2015 this might mean more seat gains ( 3 or 4 more seats maybe!)

[lilTommy]

Yukon numbers make some sense, they just had a territorial election where the NDP did very well. Plus they have been the government of the Yukon a number of times so i think that helps; where as in NB the party seems to be in a funk. Any ideas?

BC; well the prov. wing the BCNDP is unique in that they are a mix of left progressive liberals and true NDPers, so that might help Mulcair. Cullen wil have some home advantage so i suspect BC will be his best province; that i think will cut into Mulcairs vote as they are both playing in that "change" pool. Nash and Topp will fight it out amongst the traditional Social Democrats.
Mulcair has 10 endorsers from BC (MPs, former MPs, MLAs, Former MLAs and prominents)
Topp has 23 (most of them MLAs, but 5 MPs)
Cullen has 8
Nash has only 4

Topp i'm no fan of but he seems to have a good team out there, i suspect he will do well... he might have SK locked up too but hes seen as trailing everyone else and hasn't performed well at all in the debates. Hes says the right things to win over Social democrats but Nash seems to have that attraction to her that Topp dosen't.

ON is going to be a battle between Dewar, Nash Topp and Mulcair. I think Mulcair will come in second to Nash.

[lilTommy]

Still, a normal map would draw a Regina riding and a Saskatoon one, which would lean to the NDP.

Its almost too early to say who will pick up seats where until we see the new maps... ON, BC & AB (ok and PQ) will all have new ridings; SK will hopefully be totally redrawn into urban/rural ridings... and all other provinces will have to be re-drawn based on intern population shifts.

The boundary commissioners (is that their names?) were announced recently so the process is on!

[lilTommy]

Hmm looks like it was before then, in 1984 they had mixed ridings too... but i see what your getting at, ridings like Saskatoon East were almost held to just the city. back then it was the city and close suburbs.

http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca/site/english/maps/archives/5thedition/peopleandsociety/politicalgeography/mcr4110

but then it was two ridings splitting both Regina and Saskatoon in two mixed ridings. With the population increase both cities can sustain one or two fully urban seats

[lilTommy]

I much prefer the system we have in place to the US system for OBVIOUS reasons.... But parties can rally around certain proposed re-draws (as we have been mentioning above about the NDP pushing for urban/rural ridings) But its pretty impartial.

I think is australia the parties can actually advocate for killing/completely re-drawing the each others strongholds?

... strategic voting always fails...

The CAW supporting Nash was just a matter of time, she was the former president after all. CEP supporting Topp again i don't see it; or get it at all. Hes the least attractive candidate.

[lilTommy]

WOw, todays seems to be a big day for endorsements!

Peggy Nash got some big municipal endorsements from ON and BC, can we see the targetting yet?:
Adam Vaughan, Toronto City Councillor for Ward 20
Maria Augimeri, Toronto City Councillor for Ward 9
Janet Davis, Toronto City Councillor for Ward 31
Ron Jones, Windsor City Councillor for Ward 2
Carolyn Davies, Amherstburg City Councillor
Ben Isitt, Victoria City Councillor
Michelle Kirby, Oak Bay City Councillor
Diane McNally, Greater Victoria School Board Trustee
Constance Barnes, Vancouver Park Board
John Lutton, former Victoria City Councillor
Carol Pickup, former Saanich City Councillor

Not to be outdone, Mulcair also got some big BC(at times ish) support from oh look where BC!:
Joyce Scotton, former Campaign Manager for Tommy Douglas,
Gary Lauk, former cabinet minister in Dave Barrett’s NDP government
Tim Stevenson, former cabinet minister and four-term Vancouver City Councillor,
Jessie Uppal, director at the BC Federation of Labour;
Geoff Meggs, two-term Vancouver City Councillor;
Kerry Jang, two-term Vancouver City Councillor; and
Tish Lake, former NDP candidate from Kelowna and a Vice-president of the BC NDP.

[lilTommy]

The Topp lovefest eludes me! So, Chemistry for all of us, i'd say ask them why they want Topp to be the leader?

All i can say is he speaks well, knows how to talk to social democrats but he still dosen't impress me and i find him the most adversarial of the bunch.

I watched the debate, it was so far one of the more fiesty ones but thats to be expected i think http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-contenders-take-the-gloves-off-in-winnipeg-debate/article2350862/

Mulcair and Nash were "attacked" the most i think, Topp and Cullen were also gone after, Dewar somewhat and Ashton and Singh i don't think at all. Thats telling since there have been murmurs that Ashton will dropout.
What i found somewhat interesting was that Topp was targetting less Mulcair and more so Nash.

[lilTommy]

Another former premier.... This time Mulcair get Harcourts endorsement
http://www.thomasmulcair.ca/site/2012/02/27/former-bc-premier-mike-harcourt-endorses-thomas-mulcair/?lang=en

Romanow supports Topp... and Schreyer support Mulcair too, has Dewar or any other NDP premier endorsed?

[lilTommy]

My ranking is almost the same as Holmes, we only differ on the lower rankings

Mulcair
Nash
Cullen (if Saganash was in the race he'd be my third)
Ashton
Dewar
Topp
Singh

The NDP is Centre-Left already, i think they stopped being "socialist" when the CCF became the NDP. Its about the messaging, the delivery and how we talk to people that i think hes trying to get out there. Policy sure, i think some of the leftier stuff he might water down... but remember policy is chosen by the membership so seeing as they couldn't even change democratic socialist to social democrat i don't see the parties policies changing too much. What i'm seeing is that people are realising that to be the government we have to run from the centre and govern from the left... reverse liberals, Mulcair is seen as the best to take on Harper and can be the best face to put out there (Has been in government is a big plus for me, even though it was a Liberal one, he left on principle which says a lot)

[lilTommy]

... Mulcair wins over Chisholm
http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/politics/archives/2012/02/20120229-131610.html

(don't judge me on the sun link)

Really good read on IRV and who can win:
http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/02/beginning-of-the-end-games-paths-to-win-in-the-ndp-leadership-race/