2012 NDP leadership convention

[lilTommy]

Loenard Krog BC MLA from Nanaimo looks to be going with Mulcair.
Hes a former 2003 leadership candidate, but i'm not that familiar with him.

http://www.straight.com/article-578936/vancouver/ndp-mla-leonard-krog-expected-endorse-thomas-mulcair-federal-party-leader

[lilTommy]

i think its just the shock of her flipping, seemingly coming from nowhere... she should do the right "insert democratic" thing (NDP policy but that dosen't much matter to her now) and call for a by-election.

I'd be fine, as a dipper, will Brians move (i'm not voting for him) or the whats been mentioned here about moving to an elected senate.

but, do people think this will hurt Mulcair? since she did endorse him?

[lilTommy]

How is he responsible for her defection? She said she still wishes him the best, BTW. Wonder if there'll be more...

No nothing like that, i have heard some chatter in the Facebook world about this... mostly from people who have already said they support someone else though... its being used as foder.. "look Mulcairs liberal roots are showing... he wants us (NDP) to be liberals... he would leave like her if he doesn't win" thats kinda stuff.
just wondering if that even plays outside the committed supporters groups

Always love your analysis Hatman

[lilTommy]

No source for Duncan's endorsement yet, but it was mentioned on 308.

But, Dewar did get an endorsement from former provincial NDP leader Michael Cassidy. Mulcair got a big endorsement from MP Don Davies and also former BC MLA Norman Krog.

Updated map:

... Leonard Krog... i mentioned it last page. Hes a former 2003 leadership candidate on the provincial level; was the NDP lead on  BCRail too

[lilTommy]

Pauls on a roll... he just snagged big name Charlie Angus

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20120113/paul-dewar-charlie-angus-endorsement-120113/

[lilTommy]

There hasn't been an NDP leadership election in nearly a decade, but all the evidence suggests that Mulcair hasn't broken through in English Canada. I still think 1) Topp 2) Nash 3) Mulcair 4) Dewar on the first ballot. Beyond that I'm not predicting, because I know nothing of the NDP's internal dynamics.

Accidental Deliberations (a Sask based blogger) has a running rankings (i suppose like everyone) but he has it 1) Mulcair, 2) Nash, 3) Dewar, 4) Topp, 5)Ashton... Saganash, Cullen, Singh

The media has done a terrible job here too, probably because they aren't trying to bloody each other... except Topp and thats mostly backfired here. In ON, that seems to be a good call for the rankings but out west i have no clue how things are going... in the west Topp still seems to be getting endorsements, Dewar is doing rather well and Mulcair has picked up some good backing. To me Topp's policies sound great... but the man hasn't sold me and i think when NDPers look at the candidates and look who can WIN (many will be swayed by this) Topp drops down and becomes your 4th or 5th guy...

Two Alberta blogs gave Mulcair rather glowing reviews when he was in Edmonton (Daveberta and Alberta Diary) so maybe Mulcair will be that slow-and-stead-wins-the-race guy in the end.

http://accidentaldeliberations.blogspot.com/2012/01/leadership-2012-candidate-rankings_15.html

[lilTommy]

Mulcair also goes against both the ideological and cultural grain of the party though. Would a party which has always picked happy warriors want a brawler like Mulcair? Especially one who's an explicit centre-leftist rather than a social democrat?

I think thats exactly what Dippers are thinking right now... plus you have to remember the NDP is roughly a big-tent-left party... made up of socialists/social democrats/progressives (left to right) or Left/left-of-centre/centre-left. To me Dewar doesn't come across as a old Social Democrat either; Topp talks like one but acts like a Progressive/Moderate (his time with the saskieNDP)... only Nash, Ashton and Cullen strike me as Socialist/SD's.

http://daveberta.ca/2012/01/thomas-mulcair-comes-to-edmonton/
- Dave, who is a ALTA Liberal and Alberta Party guy says "I was not sure what to expect from his talk, but I found myself pleasantly surprised with Mr. Mulcair’s ability to offer intelligent pragmatic social democratic answers to a crowd  consisting of committed leftists was both impressive and sometimes brave "
... So Mulcair might either be a) learning to speak to the crowd; or b) has generally always been a SD and since in PQ there is no provincial wing, and if your a federalist the PartiQuebecois is hard to take... the Liberals is your only place (like Current MNA henri-françois gautrin who led the old QNPD and Nathalie Rochefort former MNA who was a federal Dipper).

from my perspective, we need a moderate leader to win over more moderates, thats the only real room to grow (outside of taking green, youth, non-voters... combined they wont add up to too much). The NDP needs to win in SASK/MAN (you need a moderate) and in Rural areas in BC/ON/Atlantic (again need a moderate) so... if the party still keeps SD policies but is led by someone who is seen as not a radical... plus Mulcair can take on Harper.

[lilTommy]

Sounds like it will be similar to 2003, where you could vote at convention, online or mail... me i did the online (same for the Ontario leadership race). I'm still thinking about going, since its around the corner from my house

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democratic_Party_leadership_election,_2012

nice list on wiki, and all the endorsees (many we left out but still biggies)

Oh, anyone know who Robert Chisholm might back? that couild be a game changer for someone.

Was also a nice write-up in the star about Saganash...
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1116528--ndp-leadership-candidate-romeo-saganash-knows-what-it-s-like-to-beat-the-odds

[lilTommy]

We can vote at the convention? Then, I guess that's what I'll be doing. Anyone else here going?

Mmm, I don't think so. The Toronto Comic-con is the same day. Quality time with my boyfriend versus party convention.

Comic-con is in the burbs, to far for a non-driver like me.
OR you could do like me, get your NDP supportive boyfriend to finally take out a membership

Side bar... do you prefer comic-con over fan expo? been meaning to get my ass to one.

[lilTommy]

Comic-con is in the burbs, to far for a non-driver like me.
OR you could do like me, get your NDP supportive boyfriend to finally take out a membership

Side bar... do you prefer comic-con over fan expo? been meaning to get my ass to one.

Comic-Con is in the Metro Toronto Convention Center this year, right across the street from the CN Tower. And last year it was in the Direct Energy Center. Nowhere near the burbs. Also my boyfriend's from California so no membership for him. Besides, he used to complain about me supporting the NDP and not the Liberals because they had "no chance" and the Liberals were "leftist"(I know, I know) until the NDP became the official opposition last May.

As for Fan Expo, I've never been. I live in Timmins during the summer, so I'm too far away for that.

Sorry Earl. I could always dress up as Mulcair for the convention, though?

Well Shut the Front Door!... might have to look into going then this year, could have sworn that one was up in Markham.

Ahhh i used to hear that complaint all the time back home in Eastern Ontario... less so these days.

Dewar seems to be sweeping to some degree Manitoba (southern mostly), any reason?
Still waiting to see if Chisholm backs anyone... common, get on with it! I don't know if any of his previous endorsers have come out in support of anyone else.
I only just realised my long time friend and new MP Dan Harris is going for Mulcair

[lilTommy]

Yeah, he introduced him at a few of Mulcair's Toronto events. I saw him talk when I went to one, but I didn't speak to him directly. It took all my courage to actually have a conversation with Mulcair, himself.

William Molls, who was the NDP candidate for St. Paul's in the 2011 election was there as well. I think he said he was on his team? But I forget. It was a while ago.

I have yet to get to any events... i'm hoping to maybe get to the Leaders event tmr... i hate being a working man
How was Mulcair your reation/thoughts to Mulcair in person?

[lilTommy]

I met Mulcair about 3 years ago. Let's just say he's an... interesting conversationalist, but a lot calmer than the ROC media would have you believe.

Sounds like your just being polite whats your real perseption of the man?

[lilTommy]

Mulcair is defending it:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/01/17/pol-thomas-mulcair-france.html

"We celebrate our diversity, we have a minister responsible for multiculturalism. But when push comes to shove, if you give him half a chance, the real Stephen Harper comes out (suggesting) 'I'm more Canadian than you are because my family doesn't have a background in different countries,"' Mulcair said

He can handle himself... i don't think this will affect those voters who the NDP are trying to attract anyway. The articule is rather positive towards Mulcair and makes Harper look like he truely is, a small minded man.

there was a rabble write-up about Mulcairs meet and greet in TO last night... the Union stance was brought up by one babbler
"..."what's wrong with letting the party members elect the leader?" rings very badly in Ontario. Affiliated members are members. Andrea Horwath got excellent support from the affiliated members when she won the leadership. A minority of Ontario members want to end the affiliate vote for the Ontario leadership in future. Mulcair risks being seen as siding with them. Andrea is proud to be one of Hamilton's "Women of Steel;" she was not the candidate of the party's Toronto establishment. In my small town, we have three union locals affiliated with the NDP, all Steel locals. They are not a pressure group, they are at the core of our founding partner, the labour movement. Mulcair knows the words, but I haven't heard him sing the tune."

So i agree with his perception of unions, but i disagree with having affiliate groups getting block voting. Union members should take out individual memberships, as its presumptuous to assume all members would vote for one candidate. Because they are a block and no other affiliate group gets blocked votes (i was ONDY and NDYC and we never have a block vote) they do become a pressure group and weld undue influence. I have no problems with union executives deciding to endorse candidates but each member should cast his own vote and i applaud the NDP executive for making the leadership vote that way.

in reference to TGP; Topp has been saying some great things in his pitch to the base, and thats part of the problem is that it feels like pandering to me. I am absolutely sure everyone of the candidates support increased equality in taxating and he won points with me for bringing those specifics up. But the man dosen't impress me and his out the door before jack was even cold was distasteful. To me experience is just as important when your leader. Your comments somewhat say all other candidates can't win over specific communities, economics being what drives people to vote... so Nash who has almost exclusively been focusing on economic issues or Mulcair who is pushing sustainable development everywhere can't win these folks over? I just don't buy that.
Oh about Andrea, most people live day-to-day on those minor cost-savings, they may seem minor to people like us who love big policy, but some people its the little things, the real tangible things that peak their interest and maybe, just maybe get them to look at you and your party a little closer... I love big policy don't get me wrong, but campaigns should be balanced by both big and small initiatives.

[lilTommy]

Your comments somewhat say all other candidates can't win over specific communities, economics being what drives people to vote... so Nash who has almost exclusively been focusing on economic issues or Mulcair who is pushing sustainable development everywhere can't win these folks over? I just don't buy that.

No no, just to be clear, I wasn't saying that at all - just trying to understand the Topp thinking on its own terms. I agree with the general consensus that Mulcair is a strong candidate for the general election, and Nash has a lot of strengths too though she is clearly a bit riskier in Quebec.

Thanks for clearing that, and i agree the "rich get richer, tax the rich... etc" type of policies worded right (fair or equitable tax reform?) can gain support... especially when you advocate for eliminating taxes on the poorest etc. Anyway, i don't see why Topp thinks he can win in ROC over Mulcair...

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/18/john-ivison-mulcair-in-pole-position-heading-into-ndp-debates/

Forum Poll... quick synopsis:

"More telling was his (Mulcair) performance among nearly 300 self-declared NDP voters, where he won 19% support, nearly double that of his closest rival, Peggy Nash (10%) and far ahead of Paul Dewar (6%) and Brian Topp (6%). This suggests his support extends beyond his Quebec bastion.
That the race is far from over is evident from the 48% of NDP supporters who say they haven’t yet made up their minds.
When those people are stripped out, Mr. Mulcair’s support rose to 36%, ahead of Ms. Nash’s 20% and 11% for both Mr. Dewar and Mr. Topp. (Romeo Saganash won 8%; Nathan Cullen 7%; Martin Singh 4% and Niki Ashton 3%). With such a small sample size, it should be noted that the margin of error is plus or minus 8%."

The debate last night, which i miss GDMF! (profanity lol)... anyone see? i am going to watch it on Rabble today... What i'm reading is that:

Mulcair - continues to impress, inspire, calm and collected, strong and feisty
Nash - started to shine, passionate, strong on policy, still no charism queen but improving
Dewar - looked more comfortable and at ease then previous, improving
Saganash - huge improvement over the last televised one, still an uneven performance
Topp - i saw uneven coverage; some saying they saw why he was endoresed by bigwigs, knows policy can be trusted to be the SD etc, others saying he came across the most negative and frowny?
Ashton - Impressive but not leader quality just yet
Cullen - the most likeable and funny, but least able to connect (mostly cause of his shoot-in-the-foot policy on joint nominations (? right)
Singh - will make a great MP, too one-note

[lilTommy]

Brian Topp got some more endorsements. The biggest seems to be that of another comedian, Colin Mochrie (I'm sure our British and American friends will recognize him from Whose Line Is It Anyway?)

I thought he would be better than that.

Well, Topp was the head of the actor's union. He's going to get all of the actor's endorsements.

But, I think the most coveted celebrity endorsement will be that of the Barenaked Ladies. Who will BNL support? (I think they're the most famous NDP supporters)

Topp musn't have been too happy with Polley endorsing Nash then eh.

Ya i think whomever steven page endorses will get another big boost, and some more national attention.

Now its Dewar on the mild attact against Mulcair...
http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Dewar+calls+Mulcair+clarify+position+bulk+water+exports/6039912/story.html

[lilTommy]

...and more Labour endorsements for Nash:

Gil McGowan of the Alberta Federation of Labour (AFL)
Sid Ryan of the Ontario Federation of Labour (OFL) - the only one i know, multiple Oshawa candidate and an outspoken firebrand, i like him but he is said to rub many people the wrong way.
Lana Payne of the Newfoundland & Labrador Federation of Labour (NLFL)
Rick Clarke of the Nova Scotia Federation of Labour (NSFL)
Mary Lou Cherwaty of the Northern Territories Federation of Labour (NTFL)

[lilTommy]

Did anyone catch Mulcair on 22minutes last nite?
http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/01/24/22-minutes-sneak-peak-cold-mulcair-will-that-be-a-toque-or-beret/

I thought he performed rather well, was calm and light hearted, laughs and smiles abound. A tad scripted but hes a politician so hes going to talk shop no matter where he is, and on a national broadcast thats his motive is to get his message out. Loved the Che comment, and his slap at Harper; i found he basically negated the dual citizenship stuff. hes already earned the nickname tommy now thanks to Critch.

If i were Nash or Dewar (i think Topps been on before) i'd be asking 22minutes to script them into scenes too now!

[lilTommy]

What kind of show is that? Doesn't exactly seem designed to make its guests look bad.

Its a political satire show about canadian/world news/politics... and yes it is designed to poke fun at their guest, and with their skits. The Rick Mercer show is the same type of humour. Along the same lines as the Daily Show
Jack Layton was a regular and was probably the best Federal Leader to be able to joke abouts and in many cases at his own expense; they routinely made fun of how lefty the party was, or how small the caucus was, etc.
If you can laugh and play along, since its all in beau-jest i think you come off looking relatable and likeable.

[lilTommy]

Another biggie for Dewar... Maher Arar
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/01/25/pol-ndp-dewar-arar.html

"...Arar is the Canadian citizen who was deported from the United States during a stopover flight and sent to Syria, his country of birth, in 2002. He was jailed for suspected links to terrorism, but never charged with a crime, and faced torture during his imprisonment for a year"

His wife, Monia Mazigh was a NDP candidate in 2004 in Ottawa South (i believe, a riding with a high arab/muslim population)... Could she or ever he be a candidate in 2015?

[lilTommy]

she was against same-sex marriage

She has no business being an NDP candidate, then.

My thoughts exaclty... i was excited that she was a) female b) minority, both badly need representation... but not at the expense of another group.
Plus McGuinty might be a Liberal leadership candidate... maybe, probably not but you never know.

[lilTommy]

I have to join the chorus, like Hatman/Holmes i wouldn't vote for someone who was against SSM (for obvious reasons too) id support an abolished senate but id rather see an Aussie style elected on PR senate... but thats not a deal breaker for me.

the Monia thing bugs me... as a minority woman how can you support keep another group as a second class citizen? i suppose this gets us into another argument all together so... But in the NDP equality is everything really, our pillars are built on that idea.

I joined that party cause it was principled...

But SSM and other equity issues cab be breakers for the party if they want to grow in suburban 905 and some ethnic communities... especially since the liberals and tories will fear monger and talk sh*t about the NDP in order to win (all you have to do is look at Ferreira in YSW in the ON election). But with the win in BGM that will help the party at least develop a stepping stone to grow from like they have in the Lower mianland in BC

[lilTommy]

Sorry to interrupt the SSM discussion, but Mulcair skipped last night's debate here in Montreal for a meet-and-greet. Debate was otherwise fairly mild.

I read that... funny how the media only just at the end noted that Dewar wasn't there and Saganash wasn't either.

Its not a party organised debate, and Mulcair and Dewar had pre-arranged events (scheduled before the west island event). so nothing newsworthy here

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mulcair-skips-ndp-leadership-debate-in-montreal/article2315314/?from=sec368

Im more looking forward to sundays Halifax debate to see if were seeing more defined differences... mostly in directions they want to take the party and some on policy.

[lilTommy]

... more endorsers... for Dewar

http://www.londoncommunitynews.com/2012/01/mathyssen-endorses-dewar-for-ndp-leadership/

Irene Mathyssen (former ONDP cabinet minister in Rae gov't which is funny to me still) and
Claude Gravelle (new crop, i think 2006 Northern ontario breakout)

To me Dewar still isn't high on my rankings; his french is just not there, too rigid and stiff looking, he has some great ideas but then again so do most of the others (minus Cullens joint nominations which is too bad, cause i like that guy to no end)

[lilTommy]

Does Maythissen is/was a London MP?
London-Fawshane, I think?

Yes... she still is an MP, i think 2006 she won. Before that she was an MPP in the Rae gov't 90-95... i think her riding was Middlesex (county where London is located)

[lilTommy]

I agree with Teddy its too early to "freak out" just yet... worry yes, since the trend has been on the downside but i think that's directly attributed to the fact the:
a) leaderless and a leadership race that until now isn't get much attention;
b) weak interim leader;against a strong 3rd party leader
... next leadership debate is all french in Quebec city, so that might garner some much needed PQ media attention.

Who watched the Halifax debate?
I thought this one was much more passionate, yes they were all taking shots at Harper but that's the main target so in the end they need to practise that too.
But were starting to see differences coming out, and contenders are going after each other on them.
Mulcair, Cullen and Dewar were targeted the most; Mulcair can swing right back at them, he showed how powerful of a speaker he can be without coming across as a raving lunatic. I thought he hadled each attack well and to me nothing stuck.
Cullen defended his join nominations well and i think gave more details as its a "members wish" type of approach, i still like the guy  and hes sure the most funny and likeable, but this plank isn't a winner but he sure did defend it and part of me liked it (as a means to win then introduce MMP)
Dewar handled himself well in the attacks and also tried to get at Mulcair which he paid for being blasted by Mulcair. Hes definitely trying to get more liked he was recounting more personal stories any chance he could.
Nash has more fire in her belly now, she was i think the least attacked so I'm not sure what the means, but did go after Cullen.
Saganash still feels like he not confident in English, you saw his demeanour change drastically when he spoke french... its great to have him in the race but he can't win with his English.
Topp was just lackluster, funny at time but never really wow'in me, he deafened well his tax plan and went after Mulcair on it, i found they both had great points and now i am waiting to see what Mulcair will release on tax fairness (since he said he would)
Singh will make a great MP and again continues to perform well for a novice but he is a one message kinda guy.
Ashton, speaks much better than Saganash but i find her always (in the debates) rather angry but like saganash I'm glad shes in this thing.

Change anyone mind?
I still think Mulcair, Nash, Dewar... maybe Topp are the top 4.