Christie conducting focus groups in preparation for possible run

[Reaganfan]

https://twitter.com/#!/jonathanalter/status/103866166514167809

[King]

Would William Taft's entry change your support from Perry?

[Progressive]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/08/17/christie_reportedly_mulling_bid.html

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/08/17/christie_reportedly_mulling_bid.html

Mike Naso already started a thread advising us of this. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

God, not more candidates. I'd be surprised if someone gets over 20% of the vote next year.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Let's say the race comes down to (from left to right of the GOP spectrum): Romney/Christie/Ryan/Perry/Bachmann

...that would be a good healthy debate for the GOP to have.  It would make for an interesting race.  In the end, I think Ryan would win the nomination.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

And then get 30% of the vote in the general election?

My money is still on Romney.

[NVGonzalez]

There's your Fred Thompson

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

And then get 30% of the vote in the general election?

My money is still on Romney.

I dont see a path to the nomination for Romney.

[Reluctant Republican]

I like Christie(Though he'd still not be my first choice. I shall stick with Paul till the end) But its too late for him or anyone else, IMO. Even establishment support at this point would be divided so many ways as to be rather worthless.

Also, he needs to get his health in order. Lose some weight. I'm not sure he could do the strenuous campaigning that would be required.

Though if he ever does want to run, 2012 is the best year for him. in 2016 Rubio, Paul and all the rest of the class of 2010 will be wanting to give it a shot. But I think that his window's closed already.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

And then get 30% of the vote in the general election?

My money is still on Romney.

I dont see a path to the nomination for Romney.

*Win New Hampshire
*Win Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada (at least 2 of the 4)
*Hold on until March-ish, maybe win 1 or 2 states (Hawaii? Alaska?)
*Come back with New England, NY, NJ, MD, DE
*Win PA
*Win last few random western states (saved by CA?)

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I like Christie(Though he'd still not be my first choice. I shall stick with Paul till the end) But its too late for him or anyone else, IMO. Even establishment support at this point would be divided so many ways as to be rather worthless.

no, both the base and the establishment are not satisfied with the current field...it's not too late at all.  Christie has his weight/health/temperament as an issue...Ryan doesn't.

Cantor has made it clear to the House GOP membership that he wants a quick debt deal along the lines that were agreed to, the GOP understands another game of chicken isnt going to play well with the public....Translation:  the GOP establishment knows that by the end of September, all ducks must be in a row so that the focus can return to Obama's management of the country.

So, Chirstie and Ryan have till the end of September to decide.  After that, the window will begin to close.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

And then get 30% of the vote in the general election?

My money is still on Romney.

I dont see a path to the nomination for Romney.

*Win New Hampshire
*Win Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada (at least 2 of the 4)
*Hold on until March-ish, maybe win 1 or 2 states (Hawaii? Alaska?)
*Come back with New England, NY, NJ, MD, DE
*Win PA
*Win last few random western states (saved by CA?)

but as the field narrows, Romney will get shellacked

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I like Christie(Though he'd still not be my first choice. I shall stick with Paul till the end) But its too late for him or anyone else, IMO. Even establishment support at this point would be divided so many ways as to be rather worthless.

no, both the base and the establishment are not satisfied with the current field...it's not too late at all.  Christie has his weight/health/temperament as an issue...Ryan doesn't.

Problem is that Ryan, as every House member, is up for reelection every two years and enjoy a great deal of importance as a Chairman of the Budget Committee. With such an uncertain primary outcome, would he risk a safe seat and important chairmanship?

Christie won't be up for re-election until 2013. He doesn't have anything to lose now.

[NVGonzalez]

Christie aides deny it

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/17/christie-source-the-pressure-is-ratcheting-up/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_politicalticker+%28Blog%3A+Political+Ticker%29&utm_content=FaceBook

[bullmoose88]

but as the field narrows, Romney will get shellacked

Romney needs to avoid having Christie in the race.  Then he otherwise needs the number of conservative candidates to be pretty high for a significant amount of time. Romney would need to win NH, keep expectations low and meet them in the conservative primaries and caucuses while having multiple conservative candidates win those events.

In short Romney needs to come out of the initial stages with a plurality and looking like he's the most electable nationally and the inevitable nominee.

Pretty hard to do, and if he doesn't...toast.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Ryan's seat is only R+1; I think he'll lose it next year.

[NVGonzalez]

Ryan's seat is only R+1; I think he'll lose it next year.

If the Dems find a candidate that is formidable and have at least a decent campaign he will probably be toast

[Keystone Phil]

Love it!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I now intend to write a story about a Santorum X Phil X Christie love triangle.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Christie really is one of the Republicans' best choices here. He has the right kind of temperment, and frankly, he'd fill a void -- Republicans have no candidate they can get excited about who is actually electable.

The only question -- experience. Will the public be okay electing someone with only three years' experience in the executive? Will his time as U.S. Attorney count as "experience?"

Also, he needs to get his health in order. Lose some weight. I'm not sure he could do the strenuous campaigning that would be required.

Oh, get over it. He'd be running for president, not running up a damned flight of stairs.

Do you people have any idea what it's like to be fat?

[Iosif]

Christie really is one of the Republicans' best choices here. He has the right kind of temperment, and frankly, he'd fill a void

Hehehe

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Do you people have any idea what it's like to be fat?

no, but I'm sure finding a toilet seat that fits is a real pain in the ass

[useful idiot]

Ryan's seat is only R+1; I think he'll lose it next year.

He also got 64% of the vote there in a year that Obama carried his district...

[Landslide Lyndon]

When it comes to the Republican nomination, Christie seems to be the elephant in the room.
He has gravitas, his entrance will make a big splash and will possibly squeeze out some other candidates.

All things said, he sure has a hefty resume and it's pretty obvious why many Republicans see him as the 800-pound gorilla of the presidential field..