Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[ObserverIE]

Dana and Norris now on three each.

Westmeath and Offaly vote on Dana at 2. FG aren't strong enough on either of those councils to block her on their own (and in any case the negative votes are being aimed at Norris).

According to a Longford councillor on RTÉ radio this morning (4:30 in in the first clip), there are motions there to nominate both Dana and Norris, and if Dana already has four nominations by 4 o'clock, they may discuss Norris's nomination instead. However, FG hold 10 seats out of 21 in Longford so it may not get through anyway.

[ObserverIE]

Offaly supports Dana, giving her the fourth council she needed.

Westmeath votes down Dana 10-9 but it doesn't matter at this stage.

[Andrea]

Norris got Dublin: 30 in favour, 6 against, 11 abstain

[Јas]

So, with the candidature dealine passing today, we have our 7 candidates.


Mitchell (FG); Higgins (L); McGuinness (SF); Norris (i); Davis (i); Gallagher (i); Scanlon (i)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who's going to win then?

[Oakvale]

I'm cautiously predicting Higgins wins on transfers. Although someone bland and inoffensive like Davis could do well.

[minionofmidas]

By looks alone, I would vote for the confused old don first, then the older Ulster schemie, then the younger one, then the guy who at least has a beard, then the women (the one on the right first, probably, the other looks so bland she's just got to have something to hide). The child-molesting parish priest last.
I read their wiki articles, and while the beard moves ahead of the younger schemie and the woman on the right is even more unelectable than the priest, not much changes all in all.
I seem to be a fairly good judge of character based on this sample.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously all heads of state should look like confused old dons.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times, sample 1000, carried out face-to-face on Monday and Tuesday (after the first debate on Friday night, but before last night's debate), changes from last poll in July:

Michael D. Higgins 23 (+5)
Seán Gallagher 20 (+7)
Martin McGuinness 19 (new)
Mary Davis 12 (-)
David Norris 11 (-14)
Gay Mitchell 9 (-11)
Dana Rosemary Scallon 6 (new)

(In case anyone's wondering why the change figures don't add up, the last poll had Éamon Ó Cuív on 11).

More details at http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1006/1224305330934.html.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times, sample 1000, carried out face-to-face on Monday and Tuesday (after the first debate on Friday night, but before last night's debate), changes from last poll in July:

Michael D. Higgins 23 (+5)
Seán Gallagher 20 (+7)
Martin McGuinness 19 (new)
Mary Davis 12 (-)
David Norris 11 (-14)
Gay Mitchell 9 (-11)
Dana Rosemary Scallon 6 (new)

(In case anyone's wondering why the change figures don't add up, the last poll had Éamon Ó Cuív on 11).

More details at http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1006/1224305330934.html.

I re-coloured it to match the fact that Gallagher was FF right up until being FF became unpopular

[Oakvale]

Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times, sample 1000, carried out face-to-face on Monday and Tuesday (after the first debate on Friday night, but before last night's debate), changes from last poll in July:

Michael D. Higgins 23 (+5)
Seán Gallagher 20 (+7)
Martin McGuinness 19 (new)
Mary Davis 12 (-)
David Norris 11 (-14)
Gay Mitchell 9 (-11)
Dana Rosemary Scallon 6 (new)

(In case anyone's wondering why the change figures don't add up, the last poll had Éamon Ó Cuív on 11).

More details at http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1006/1224305330934.html.

My important and insightful commentary -

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Good performance in the debates, generally popular,  remains the clear favourite. Don't see him losing, but who knows?

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What? Oh, God, what? This is horrible news. I'd have thought Mary Davis would be the more popular of the two bland independents, but there you go. Ew. Ew. Ew.

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A little higher than I would have thought, but fits into the category of "good, but not good enough", which is probably how McGuinness will perform. Needless to say, he's pretty transfer unfriendly.

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Like I said, I'd expected Davis' and Gallagher's positions to be reversed, but meh. Respectable.

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I'm supporting Norris, so I'm disappointed, but not surprised. Considering there's been a fully-fledged media assault on his campaign along with a pretty poor performance in the debates, this isn't surprising.

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Hilarious.

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Dana has replaced Gay Mitchell as the creepiest candidate running, and this is reflected in her poll performance. Still slightly disturbing that 6% of people would vote for her, but okay.

[Oakvale]

Apologies for the double post, but there's also apparently a new Red C poll out -

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Pretty much confirms the Irish Times poll.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

And here was I hoping that this would turn into the first election in Irish history between two totally unobjectionable candidates. I´m still supporting Norris btw. Oh, and LOL Gay Mitchell.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Poll Averaging
Higgins 24
Sean 21
Martin 17
Norris 13
Gay 10
Davis 10
Dana 5

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times, sample 1000, carried out face-to-face on Monday and Tuesday (after the first debate on Friday night, but before last night's debate), changes from last poll in July:

Michael D. Higgins 23 (+5)
Seán Gallagher 20 (+7)
Martin McGuinness 19 (new)
Mary Davis 12 (-)
David Norris 11 (-14)
Gay Mitchell 9 (-11)
Dana Rosemary Scallon 6 (new)

(In case anyone's wondering why the change figures don't add up, the last poll had Éamon Ó Cuív on 11).

More details at http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1006/1224305330934.html.

My important and insightful commentary -

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good performance in the debates, generally popular,  remains the clear favourite. Don't see him losing, but who knows?

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What? Oh, God, what? This is horrible news. I'd have thought Mary Davis would be the more popular of the two bland independents, but there you go. Ew. Ew. Ew.

He comes across as amiable and normal - how much substance there is is another matter - and he hasn't engaged in or been the subject of a lot of the mudslinging mainly emanating from Mount Street (FG HQ) and Talbot Street (Independent Newspapers HQ).

[ObserverIE]

Norris's campaign seems over in practice. He can't even get good press in the Times. The stream of stories on Mary Davis's quango background seems to have at best stalled and at worst derailed her campaign.

Gallagher benefits as the only independent with pretty solid media credibility left, and from what seems to have been a non-controversial campaign so far.

Where will all those Mitchell and Davis transfers go?

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While it's more than well-deserved (for both Mitchell himself and for the clowns who've been "cheerleading"), I think Norris and Davis will be in his rear-view mirror. It will be a question of who falls fastest by the 27th.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Who did that poll? The graphic looks exactly like we get in Canada.

[ObserverIE]

Who did that poll? The graphic looks exactly like we get in Canada.

http://redcresearch.ie/about

[MaxQue]

Are they linked to Commies, or it is a rather strange name choice?

[ObserverIE]

Are they linked to Commies, or it is a rather strange name choice?

Commies? ROFL.

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Morkeshing bullsh**t.

[ObserverIE]

Party support from the MRBI poll (changes from last poll in July):

FG 35 (-3)
SF 18 (+8.)
Lab 17 (-1)
FF 16 (-2)
Greens 2 (-)
Others 12 (-2)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1007/politics.html
Not directly related, but excellent news!!!

edit - oh someone beat me too it.
Still!! I hope this is the start of real left-right split in Ireland.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1007/politics.html
Not directly related, but excellent news!!!

edit - oh someone beat me too it.
Still!! I hope this is the start of real left-right split in Ireland.

If it means Sinn fein being the largest party on "the left" then I don´t want it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sinn Fein will do well in the polls throughout the lifetime of this government, I think that's fairly clear, especially given the shattering of Fianna Fail's credibility. Whether that will translate into success at a General Election...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Sinn Fein will do well in the polls throughout the lifetime of this government, I think that's fairly clear, especially given the shattering of Fianna Fail's credibility. Whether that will translate into success at a General Election...

I think that has been pretty clear since the election.. I just wanted to make my position clear. And besides, I don´t consider SF a ´left-wing´ party. At least they aren´t in the way the Labour party - despite its conservatism - or the ULA are.