How possible is this electoral map?

[Reaganfan]

I created an electoral map in states where Obama's approval was no higher than the mid-40s, then added states to Obama that seem likely to break his way next year (Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa) then added them up to find a Republican victory with 272-266.

Also, do you think a map like this is possible with an Obama popular vote victory occurring despite a loss?

[opebo]

Not only very possible, it is the most likely map, other than the same map with Nevada flipped, which is probably equally likely.

[Tender Branson]

I think that if Colorado goes to Obama, Nevada should do so as well.

The large and growing Hispanic share in these states should push the Democrat over the finish line.

Other than that your map looks reasonable, but maybe Virginia is now above the national average and could also vote for Obama again.

I voted "unlikely but possible".

[pbrower2a]

The Obama campaign will do in Nevada what it did in 2008 -- flood Nevada with political volunteers and paid operatives  from California who then ensure that every imaginable Democratic voter, including many new Nevada residents (such as political volunteers and political operatives who used to live in California) goes out to vote. 

[Kevin]

Very Possible,

But I'd flip NH though.

[Paul Kemp]

At least it doesn't have MI going for the GOP. I don't care what the polls say, if Romney is the nominee they aren't going to vote for Mr. "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt."

[pbrower2a]

At least it doesn't have MI going for the GOP. I don't care what the polls say, if Romney is the nominee they aren't going to vote for Mr. "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt."

Romney loses Ohio for the same reason, as Ohio depends heavily upon the auto industry, too.

[Paul Kemp]

At least it doesn't have MI going for the GOP. I don't care what the polls say, if Romney is the nominee they aren't going to vote for Mr. "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt."

Romney loses Ohio for the same reason, as Ohio depends heavily upon the auto industry, too.

I don't believe it would have the same effect.

[zorkpolitics]

If the election is close this is a very reasonable map. 
But as Obama's failures and incompetence become clearer to all, I am now expecting a easy win for the GOP candidate: I expect CO, NH, IA, WI, PA to be in play, and if Obama's approval drops below 40%, MI, MN, NM, ME, and OR to become toss-ups.

[DS0816]

Won't happen.

[opebo]

If the election is close this is a very reasonable map. 
But as Obama's failures and incompetence become clearer to all, I am now expecting a easy win for the GOP candidate

It is quite possible that the electorate will come to understand that the GOP caused the depression.

[Devilman88]

I think it is so funny that people still think the political map will still look like it was in the early  2000s. We are currently in the middle of a time where the map is changing. Where fast growing southern states are becoming more democratic and slow growing northern states are becoming more conservative.

[Penelope]

I think it is so funny that people still think the political map will still look like it was in the early  2000s. We are currently in the middle of a time where the map is changing. Where fast growing southern states are becoming more democratic and slow growing northern states are becoming more conservative.

I agree. If Obama loses, I could see him still winning Virginia, etc.

[opebo]

I think it is so funny that people still think the political map will still look like it was in the early  2000s. We are currently in the middle of a time where the map is changing. Where fast growing southern states are becoming more democratic and slow growing northern states are becoming more conservative.

I agree. If Obama loses, I could see him still winning Virginia, etc.

Ok, Devilman88 has a reasonable point, but to say it could lose while still winning the fast-growing less-Republican Southern States is just over the top:

Unless you didn't count Florida as a fast-growing less-Republican Southern state.. but even in that case it is a huge stress to imagine him winning VA and NC and losing.

Of course the reality is that all the change we keep talking about isn't really here yet.

[Paul Kemp]

If Obama loses MI, WI, etc., there's no way he wins VA or NC.

[King]

A candidate that can't win Colorado or New Mexico won't win Nevada.  I'd flip Nevada and New Hampshire.  This would be the Romney victory map.

[Devilman88]

I think it is so funny that people still think the political map will still look like it was in the early  2000s. We are currently in the middle of a time where the map is changing. Where fast growing southern states are becoming more democratic and slow growing northern states are becoming more conservative.

I agree. If Obama loses, I could see him still winning Virginia, etc.

Ok, Devilman88 has a reasonable point, but to say it could lose while still winning the fast-growing less-Republican Southern States is just over the top:

Unless you didn't count Florida as a fast-growing less-Republican Southern state.. but even in that case it is a huge stress to imagine him winning VA and NC and losing.

Of course the reality is that all the change we keep talking about isn't really here yet.

Change FL, WI and MI and that is how I think 2012 will look like in a 50/50 election.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obama won't lose Pennsylvania unless it isn't close.

[Devilman88]

That is what you think. But that isn't what the trends and polling data are showing.

[King]

That is what you think. But that isn't what the trends and polling data are showing.

By the way, how are you trending, Josh?

[Devilman88]

That is what you think. But that isn't what the trends and polling data are showing.

By the way, how are you trending, Josh?

Im doing good. I suppose that is what you are asking.

[specific_name]

This map is pretty close to what I get whenever I use evc, which is every few days or so... assuming a close pv. Nevada and Florida both have higher unemployment that the national average, so in a close race I would nudge them into the blue. However, I'm starting to think the race won't be close - my gut feeling is that it will be the most decisive result since the 80's. Though at the moment that doesn't seem possible.

As for the lean D Midwestern states going R, and the trending Hispanic/Yankee Southern states going D, I think we're a few years off from that type of flip in a close race. I could envision Obama winning most of his 08 states plus GA in a blowout. Or the reverse, loosing the Midwest entirely along with the South. The demographic flip will probably be pronounced by 2020.

[Penelope]

This map is pretty close to what I get whenever I use evc, which is every few days or so... assuming a close pv. Nevada and Florida both have higher unemployment that the national average, so in a close race I would nudge them into the blue. However, I'm starting to think the race won't be close - my gut feeling is that it will be the most decisive result since the 80's. Though at the moment that doesn't seem possible.

As for the lean D Midwestern states going R, and the trending Hispanic/Yankee Southern states going D, I think we're a few years off from that type of flip in a close race. I could envision Obama winning most of his 08 states plus GA in a blowout. Or the reverse, loosing the Midwest entirely along with the South. The demographic flip will probably be pronounced by 2020.

If Obama has a blow-out he could probably pull off a win in AZ, ND, SD, MT, and MO.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

I think the original map is almost spot on....however, I wouldn't be surprised to see PA go Republican for the first time in ages....

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

This map is pretty close to what I get whenever I use evc, which is every few days or so... assuming a close pv. Nevada and Florida both have higher unemployment that the national average, so in a close race I would nudge them into the blue. However, I'm starting to think the race won't be close - my gut feeling is that it will be the most decisive result since the 80's. Though at the moment that doesn't seem possible.

As for the lean D Midwestern states going R, and the trending Hispanic/Yankee Southern states going D, I think we're a few years off from that type of flip in a close race. I could envision Obama winning most of his 08 states plus GA in a blowout. Or the reverse, loosing the Midwest entirely along with the South. The demographic flip will probably be pronounced by 2020.

If Obama has a blow-out he could probably pull off a win in AZ, ND, SD, MT, and MO.

Eh, I'd put Georgia or even West Virginia before the Dakotas.