Who'll be in power in the following countries in 2016?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can't really speak for late 4th Republic (I think that's what you're alluding to), but as for modern times, things are quite simple. Since 1977 or at least 1983, French are used to voting against the party in power for local elections. There has been almost no exception to this rule since then. During the Mitterrand years, the right dominated local offices (it held around 80 departements and every region but 2). Now, as the right is in power since 2002, it's not surprising to see the left fare well, even though it's not the only reason why they do so well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You don't think that the Fourth Republic counts as 'modern times'?

Anyway, I don't think we actually disagree. It isn't that French voters have a long-standing preference for left-wing local government (especially given the control that central government had over local government until the 1980s) combined with right-wing central government, but that France is certainly not immune from standard mid-term voting patterns.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You don't think that the Fourth Republic counts as 'modern times'?

Seen from today, it looks like Antiquity. Most French people would have difficulties to imagine they had that kind of regime just 53 years ago... And of course its political/party systems and voting patterns have nothing in common with today's.

Anyways, I didn't want to express disagreement, just adding some explanations about why we have this situation since 2004. Anti-incumbent vote is a defining factor in French politics, and local elections are kind of "mid-terms" as you said.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany: Angela Merkel, CDU/Green or CDU/SPD coalition

So far, CDU Chancellors have either been in power for only three years or for a period of ca. 15 years. Merkel is way past the three and clinging to power as the one thing she's really really good at. Besides, the SPD has managed to maintain its aura of general incompetence so far. Fukushima also removed the main obstacle for a CDU/Green coalition at the federal level.

[Hash]

France Marine Le Pen

LOL

Please get a clue or step being a hack.

[batmacumba]

You don't think that the Fourth Republic counts as 'modern times'?

Seen from today, it looks like Antiquity. Most French people would have difficulties to imagine they had that kind of regime just 53 years ago... And of course its political/party systems and voting patterns have nothing in common with today's.

Anyways, I didn't want to express disagreement, just adding some explanations about why we have this situation since 2004. Anti-incumbent vote is a defining factor in French politics, and local elections are kind of "mid-terms" as you said.

But yet, it has not been immediately. It has some delay on turning sides. So it's fair to suppose 60-40% for the left in 2014.
Well, I admitted it was a weak reason. Now, center-right politicians keep polling well, despite Sarkozy (at least on IPSOS), while the left ones keep polling bad, except the prospective presidential candidates (and Lang, for some motive). There was a left surge, between late 2010 and early 2011, but it's getting back to previous state. So that's why I instinctively imagined cohabitation, combined with those really weak political motives.

Germany: Angela Merkel, CDU/Green or CDU/SPD coalition

So far, CDU Chancellors have either been in power for only three years or for a period of ca. 15 years. Merkel is way past the three and clinging to power as the one thing she's really really good at. Besides, the SPD has managed to maintain its aura of general incompetence so far. Fukushima also removed the main obstacle for a CDU/Green coalition at the federal level.

I'd imagined that, but I wondered if the greens wouldn't find they would have better positions and weight at the government, negotiating with the runner-up, witch, after all, had been their most traditional allies. Guess I was relying too much on my own country political patterns. I also thought Stuttgart21 would make Greens refrain from this alliance.
So, how much being the most voted overrides historical common alliances and policies?

[opebo]

United States - Republican named Rick Perry, GOP Senate and House
United Kingdom - cons
Germany - SPD
France - Sarcosy.
Australia - the rightwing
-----------
Italy - Berlesconey

[ZuWo]

United States - A Republican President
United Kingdom - A Torie Prime Minister
Germany - A CDU/SPD coalition
France - Nicolas Sarkozy
Australia - A Conservative Prime Minister
Spain - A Conservative Prime Minister
Italy - A left-wing government
Poland - The PO
Belgium - the country won't exist as such anymore
Sweden - The Socialdemocrats

[Antonio the Sixth]

But yet, it has not been immediately. It has some delay on turning sides. So it's fair to suppose 60-40% for the left in 2014.

Most likely, yes. But if they take over in 2012, the left will probably start facing important losses at the local level.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Do they ? I admit I don't pay much attentions to popularity rating of this and that politicial, but as far as I know there is no significant left-wing figure which is unpopular, and while a few right-wingers remain quite popular, they are mostly "mavericks" like Borloo or Rama Yade. Anyways, French Presidential elections are always about personality, so all that matters is how people percieve each candidate.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So far, PS candidates are still polling at unseen levels (Aubry around 26%, Hollande 29%), and for the first time since 1995 they are ahead of the right. Every 2nd round poll gives the PS candidate over 55% (one had Aubry at 53%, but it hasn't been corroborated yet). Before mid-2010, the PS candidates either had a small lead or were tied with Sarkozy. Sure, there is some back-and-forth, and in these days Sarko has certainly gained ground. But so far polls are still quite bright for the PS.

A cohabitation is not impossible : it might happen in such a political climate, where the entire political class is discredited. My philosophy here is "never say never". However, you must remember that, since Presidential and Legislative elections are syncronized, the latter are often considered by the voters as a formality (hence the awful turnout) : it's all about "giving the President his majority". So it's, at least, highly unlikely for a cohabitation to happen in such situation.

[Hash]

For my guess on France: infightings, backlash, EU economy and the trend on maintaining conservative legislators and leftist local administrations, despite national leanings.
I know. These are weak reasons. I'm relying more on my instincts. Not on my wishes, thought.

Legislative elections will be held right after the presidential elections in the summer of 2012, and after that would be held after the 2017 presidential elections in the summer of 2017. If the left wins in 2012, it is extremely likely they would win a governing majority unless for some weird reason the voters behave unusually bizarrely and elect, for some reason, a right-wing legislative majority. And assuming the left wins the 2012 legislative elections, there is no reason to assume they wouldn't make the legislature last a full 5 years until after the 2016 prez elections. The synchronization, if it lasts (I see no reason to assume it won't) basically blocks any cohabitation.

[batmacumba]

But yet, it has not been immediately. It has some delay on turning sides. So it's fair to suppose 60-40% for the left in 2014.

Most likely, yes. But if they take over in 2012, the left will probably start facing important losses at the local level.

We're saying the same thing, here. Something like 98, but inverted.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So far, PS candidates are still polling at unseen levels (Aubry around 26%, Hollande 29%), and for the first time since 1995 they are ahead of the right. Every 2nd round poll gives the PS candidate over 55% (one had Aubry at 53%, but it hasn't been corroborated yet). Before mid-2010, the PS candidates either had a small lead or were tied with Sarkozy. Sure, there is some back-and-forth, and in these days Sarko has certainly gained ground. But so far polls are still quite bright for the PS.

A cohabitation is not impossible : it might happen in such a political climate, where the entire political class is discredited. My philosophy here is "never say never". However, you must remember that, since Presidential and Legislative elections are syncronized, the latter are often considered by the voters as a formality (hence the awful turnout) : it's all about "giving the President his majority". So it's, at least, highly unlikely for a cohabitation to happen in such situation.

Well, I was stating figures for general politicians, not the presidential race. If the IPSOS Baromètre politique is reliable for the last 2 years, there was this surge, but it is slowly fading (including for Hollande and Aubry, despite Hollande's meteorical surge on April and June, self-explained) and right wing politicians are in a really better figure on a sustained basis. One thing I've noticed was this rates of approval independs the chief of state approval. As I've already said, this is not on my wishlist of political developments. My best wishes you folks are right and election synchronization overrides this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, I was stating figures for general politicians, not the presidential race. If the IPSOS Baromètre politique is reliable for the last 2 years, there was this surge, but it is slowly fading (including for Hollande and Aubry, despite Hollande's meteorical surge on April and June, self-explained) and right wing politicians are in a really better figure on a sustained basis. One thing I've noticed was this rates of approval independs the chief of state approval. As I've already said, this is not on my wishlist of political developments. My best wishes you folks are right and election synchronization overrides this.

What figures are you talking about exactly ? As I've said, approval ratings of the politicians in a party are pretty meaningless in France's system. And also, can you link to a few of those approval numbers ? I haven't noticed right-wing politicians being more popular than left-wing ones in average, and if it's true that's an interesting factoid.

[Hash]

Probs this stuff: https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipsos.fr%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fattachments%2Frapport_complet_barometre_politique_ipsos_lepoint_18_juillet_2011.pdf

Popular right-wingers were Lagarde, Juppe, Yade, Borloo, Freddie, Kouchner, Fadela, NKM and to a lesser extent; Bertrand, Pecresse, Baroin. This was before the Lagarde scandal and iirc right after she got the IMF job, so probably inflated. Juppe is a competent minister who is relatively well-perceived in a job which isn't overly political as it doesn't deal with domestic politics. Yade, Borloo, Kouchner and Fadela are all ex-ministers turned into mavericks. Fredo Mitterrand is an idiot, but he doesn't do anything too controversial and he's amusing at times. NKM is a well-liked competent minister who doesn't deal with too controversial stuff. Bertrand has always appeared as some good-natured nice little boy. Pecresse is a tad surprising but she hasn't, afaik, done anything too controversial recently. Baroin is also a generally competent and well-perceived guy who hasn't done too much and hasn't been in his current job for long.

[batmacumba]

That's it, and people on the left are way better than about an year ago. Delanoë was in the best rates for a long time, alone on the left side. Strauss-Kahn surged, when it was clear that he was in the race, Lang shortly after. For obvious reasons, he's no longer there. Aubry surged, and lastly Hollande. For some reason (not being so exposed on the media?) the right wing always polled on top.
As the fall of Sarkozy seemed to not affect it, I've figured out the same lack of political hell transferring could happen on legislative election. The other rightists don't pass me the same level of non-republican appeal that Sarko does. And if this is the reason for his trailing on polls (I'm not having to much information on people's humor about this, my father is the TV5 24 hours guy, not me) more than disenchantment with the government (and, sure if PS is not able to control their own messes), than my spider sense told me there may be cohabitation. Again, hope it's broken.
In 98 I almost lost some limbs for predicting France's victory.

[TheGlobalizer]

A bit more than just who's in power.

US: GOP across the board, but their balls will be in the Tea Party's vice so you'll have infighting and less net activity.  Social issues mostly a non-starter but fiscal conservatism will become a component of the political center Washington, particularly as part of a then-implemented soft austerity and entitlement reform.  Social conservatives give up on DOMA and focus on anti-abortion amendment, and lose both.  Will attempt to overextend gains in Congress and probably lose the House in 2016 elections.

UK: Tory majority, no coalition with LibDem needed.  Economy will stabilize into slow, low growth, will struggle to balance banking focus in City of London vs. public distaste for banks.  Will gravitate toward Thatcherite policies and Big Society will be a distant memory.  Riots create a backlash and support a stronger law and order focus; Euroskepticism will expand and UK will continue to be "barely EU" (mostly market access only).

Italy: Post-Berlusconi center-right North-South autonomy coalition.  Increased focus on federalism and devolution due to Lega Nord and other minor coalition partner influence.  Improved financial situation but with some Greece/London-esque rioting (especially in Rome).

France: Probably Sarkozy.  He'll rattle around between right-wing and left-wing pressures, won't do much of note/value.  Economy will deteriorate, social order will deteriorate.

Germany: Center-left coalition.  Fiscal stability will be the focus.  Euro will remain but Germany will look for other ways to decouple.

Europe as a whole: More anti-immigrant and nationalist, will continue to try to reconcile social contract with soft economy by excluding "the others".  Euro project will survive and become more resolute, but peripheral states will lose significant sovereignty to the economic powerhouses (Germany, Netherlands, France (fading), Italy (strengthening)) in exchange for open market access, strong currency, and guarantees of stabilization in crises.  Greece may not survive the Euro but the rest of the PIIGS will, albeit weakened considerably.  Euro institutions will come out of the economic crises stronger and with more actual authority, and guided by the powerhouses and stable new Euro members (e.g. Poland).

[Antonio the Sixth]

As the fall of Sarkozy seemed to not affect it, I've figured out the same lack of political hell transferring could happen on legislative election. The other rightists don't pass me the same level of non-republican appeal that Sarko does. And if this is the reason for his trailing on polls (I'm not having to much information on people's humor about this, my father is the TV5 24 hours guy, not me) more than disenchantment with the government (and, sure if PS is not able to control their own messes), than my spider sense told me there may be cohabitation. Again, hope it's broken. In 98 I almost lost some limbs for predicting France's victory.

Nah, that's not how French politics work. The approval of a few figureheads have 0 influence in legislative elections. I'm not saying a cohabitation won't happen (even though it's very unlikely), but if it happens it won't be for this reason.

Actually, I think a cohabitation between Sarkozy and a PS Assembly is far more likely than the reverse situation. If French people reelect Sarkozy in 2012, it will be by default, not because they like it. They will still consider him to be an evil asshole, but for whatever reason will prefer him to the alternative (PS candidate disqualified by 1st round, or heavily unpopular, or perceived as incompetent). In such scenario, the French would be prone to prevent Sarkozy from keeping implementing his policies, and could very well vote for the PS in the legislative elections.

[Kevin]

United States-Obama(Although the Republicans will hold the House and Senate, + plus the majority of Governorships)
United Kingdom-The Conservatives although Cameron's future look uncertain
Germany-SDP in Coalition with the Greens and the Left
France-Ether Francois Hollande or less likely Martine Aubry
Australia-Liberals most likely under Abbott
Netherlands-Centre-Right led Coalition  
Denmark-Social Democrats under Helle Thorning-Schmidt
Spain-Rajoy, but the Socialists regaining power is equally likely in my opinion
Canada-Conservatives Post-Harper
Italy-Centre-Right parties(the Italian left is too divided and stagnant to take)  
Belgium-Can't say(may not even be a country like mentioned by other forumites)
Sweden-Centre Party under a new leader
New Zealand-John Key and the Nationals
Ireland-Fina Gael(or perhaps Labour)
Greece-Anti-Austerity Coalition consisting of a variety of different parties

[Stranger in a strange land]

Italy Silvio Berlusconi 

He isn't running again and I believe him when he says it.

even if he were, there's no way he could hang on that long.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

US: Dr. Ron Paul (R-TX/PA) GOP House, Senate, and majority of governorships
Canada: Conservatve/Libertarian Colition
UK: Tories

[Hash]

I'm sure all 5 members of the Libertarian Party of Canada will be pleased to learn that you think that in five year's time they'll be forming a governing coalition.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Think of a grand alliance of the right.

[Franzl]

Think of a grand alliance of the right.

Just one little problem. You have to win seats in order to participate in a governing coalition.

[Lief 🗽]

All your predictions are boring...

United States: Rick Perry, GOP House/Senate, anarchy on the streets
United Kingdom: Labour probably, but still anarchy on the streets
Germany: SDP/Green coalition
France: Socialist President
Australia: Liberals
Netherlands: Some grand coalition, like all their other governments ever...
Spain: right-wing government, anarchy on the streets
Canada: NDP minority government
Italy: right-wing government, anarchy on the streets
Belgium: no longer a country
Sweden: Socialists
Greece: anarchy

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Predicting who's going to be in power one or even two elections away is like predicting what the name of your first grandkid will be. But alright then I'll give it a try. (I will probably be wrong on a lot of these, but these are my best guesses)

United States: Obama will probably win re-election due to a weak GOP field, so Obama.

United Kingdom: By 2015 the economy should have recovered and might be good, Cameron will take credit, this with the combination of Ed Miliband being a weak leader will lead to Torie majority or continued Coalition.

Germany: Hard one, but considering how weak the CDU/FDP look in polls right now and how terribly they're doing in local elections probably an SDP/Green coalition.

France: If the PS doesn't win this time around they'll never win, so whoever they nominate.

Australia: Tough call, hmm... errgh... Liberals, hopefully with a new leader.

Netherlands: As with the UK, the economy will have recoved the next time they hit the polls so the centre-right Rutte coalition should be able to continue with PVV support.

Spian: The PP will win in November, but since Rajoy seems so weak as a leader he might end up being defeated by a charismatic left-winger in 2015, so errr... PSOE goverment.

Canada: Considering Harper wont need to go to another election until 2016, Harper obviously. And he'd have a good chance at winning re-election too.

Denmark - Thorning-Smith will win with a centre-left coalition this year, and again with the economy will probably be good in 2015, that coalition will be returned to power.

New Zealand - I'm guessing John Key might be returned for a third term in 2013.

Sweden - Well considering what I've said about the 2015 economy, Håkan Juholt's moustache not being the success people hoped it would be, and the Swedish people having a fetish for re-electing goverments in eternity, probably the Alliance. Although they've not been that great this past year so who knows. (But then this is apperently the big thread of wishthinking, so definatley Alliance)

Greece - Will have been sold of to highest bidder.