Gerrymandering Canada

[adma]

Without Goodale, Wascana would actually be the most NDP-friendly seat in the province.

Or at least, the most Tory-unfriendly--at least from appearances, because it has less rural hinterland than the others.  But it does contain some of Regina's more affluent zones, to the point where the "NDP-friendliness" is counteracted by a St Paul's or (pre-this-past-election) Winnipeg SC tendency.  Which Goodale, being a Liberal, is well equipped to straddle.

[adma]

Though the problem with a lot of these "gerrymander" exercises is that they can take most-recent-results too much at face value:  Canada simply isn't like the States where the Blue/Red divide is so stiff and eternal.  Sure, there are places which may *seem* otherwise (the Sask urb/ru divides being a classic case in point); but things can shift and still can shift in weird ways, to the point where one can trip over oneself in fabricating apparently "Tory" or "Liberal" (or, I guess now, "NDP") ridings in the 905...

[adma]

And when it comes to Humber-High Park, the "Humber" (Etobicoke) part would probably work to cancel out any NDP tendencies...

[adma]

Of course, things might resolve themselves on the NDP's Rathika-esque behalf should Sgro opt to retire instead--she's 66 years old, after all...

[adma]

http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?authuser=0&ie=UTF8&hl=en&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004a8b289f2c3d734afe

Looks like a shattered windshield.

[adma]

A couple of points. Firstly, and I was thinking of this relative to Hamilton, creating a fourth seat may push Niagara West - Glanbrook over and adversely (for the NDP) impact on Welland, so overall, actually create a net no change overall.

Don't forget that about 18 NEW seats are supposed to go to Ontario in the next election. A new seat could be created in Hamilton without having to negatively impact Welland etc...

Someone with time on their hands ought to look at which ridings are the most overpopulated and try to project where these new seats are likely to be.

I will be doing this. You will note I have the census release date listed on my blog in anticipation of a redistribution project.

Unfortunately, Welland is going to be affected with redistribution, and its marginal status can only mean the NDP will suffer. I'm not sure were the riding can be shored up outside the area. Then again, a smaller Welland riding might be ok (losing Wainfleet would be great).

Though remember that, Wainfleet aside, a reconfigured Niagara West-Glanbrook could just as well annex elsewhere and become Niagara West-Haldimand.  Otherwise, I reckon most of the critical "affected with redistribution" in Welland has been done in the past and it might be surprisingly stable now, with a lot of the potential annexable neighbouring portions "NDP-swingable"--at this point, redistribution might as well have less of an effect on future NDP fortunes than MPP Peter Kormos' retirement...

[adma]

I don't know how that's logistically possible, unless you string a necklace of lower-class urban nabes and reserves together for a "First Nations" seat out West...

[adma]

You know, "Jewish" seats in Toronto and Montreal might be the closest viable approximation to US-style gerrymandering--and given present patterns, they might be like the "Cuban Republican" seats down Miami way...

[adma]

You mean, it'd need the kinds of ridings that'd make, say, Oak Ridges-Markham look rational...

[adma]

You mean, it'd need the kinds of ridings that'd make, say, Oak Ridges-Markham look rational...

I know the riding looks weird, but is it's not a gerrymander, is it?

No, it's more of a "cobbled-together leftover, marking time 'til the next redistribution" riding.