Gerrymandering Canada

[MaxQue]

The Liberals used to stand for left-wing bleeding heartism and pro-quebecism under Trudeau.

That is the falsest thing I ever heard.

[Foucaulf]

Mulroney came in and stole away the pro-quebecism.

Mulroney gathered discontent from the West (NEP) and Quebec nationalists (patriation in particular) over Trudeau, and skewered Turner to obtain his landslide victory.

Chretien, then moulded the Liberals to stand for very moderate and centrist Conservatism.

Chretien, like everyone, realized that Mulroney's economic policy had failed and decided to focus on the issue completely. You are quite understanding the PC-Reform vote split, considering that the Liberals held almost every seat in Ontario as a result.

Then when the Conservative party came together, the Liberals stood for not-being-the-conservative-party

You forgot the sponsorship scandal. There was also the Martin minority, which melted away as Ontarians reembraced the Conservatives post-Harris.

Then Canadians were like
"but we LIKE the conservative party"

Once again, Ontarians.

meanwhile the NDP now stands for left-wing bleeding heartism and pro-quebecism.

Or maybe the Conservatives have been portrayed as anti-nationalist and excessively right-wing, especially after the past 3 elections? If anything, bleeding hearts are still attached to the Liberals because they detest the NDP's populist tendencies.

And now the Liberals are trying to figure out WTF they stand for.

Even that's dying down after the postponement of the leadership election. Now they're just trying to stay relevant by using the rest of their funds.

[adma]

You know, "Jewish" seats in Toronto and Montreal might be the closest viable approximation to US-style gerrymandering--and given present patterns, they might be like the "Cuban Republican" seats down Miami way...

[Hatman 🍁]

Makes no sense to look at things in isolation. Liberal support has collapsed amongst pretty much all 'immigrant' communities over the past couple of elections, especially further out into the suburbs. Which is extremely significant as such communities have been one of their main electoral bulwarks since the 1950s and after Trudeau became their main source of strength. The process has been more extreme with Jewish voters though; of course the Tories have been wooing them in a serious way for longer than other minorities and, also, they're a more affluent group overall. Suspect that Israel is a factor for some (especially the more mainstream Orthodox) but generally issues like that are overrated.

The Jewish vote change in recent years has been striking, a lot more than any other immigrant group.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Jewish vote change in recent years has been striking, a lot more than any other immigrant group.

Sure, the collapse in Liberal support amongst Jewish voters has been especially dramatic (don't think I denied that). I suspect that they will also find it harder to claw back; that is if they're ever in a position to even try. But it's very much part of a wider pattern rather than something unusual. My point, really, is that we're basically just looking for differences at the margins (why has group x swung harder than group y) rather than looking at something unique.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Jewish vote change in recent years has been striking, a lot more than any other immigrant group.

Sure, the collapse in Liberal support amongst Jewish voters has been especially dramatic (don't think I denied that). I suspect that they will also find it harder to claw back; that is if they're ever in a position to even try. But it's very much part of a wider pattern rather than something unusual. My point, really, is that we're basically just looking for differences at the margins (why has group x swung harder than group y) rather than looking at something unique.

Well, they've already swung provincially as well... before any other group. Who would've expected Thornhill to go Tory in 2007? I mean, I suppose it is the only riding in the province that John Tory's religious schools issue would be a benefit, but still.

It is fascinating about the Jewish vote. It wasn't too long ago that they were all voting Communist.

[MaxQue]

Jew voting in strange.

In 2008, in Outremont, Jews voted liberal, except Orthodox Jews which voted for the NDP.

[ottermax]

From my understanding, since my family lives right there in the Jewish segment on Bathurst is that these affluent voters are socially liberal, pro-israel (but this isn't a deciding factor), and tend to be a little fiscally conservative. Overall, very centrist voters and I think that many of them believe that the NDP promises the impossible, while the Conservatives are more realistic. Many of the older voters are very traditional Liberals, but they are fading away as younger, even more affluent families move in. The Conservatives have done an excellent job of presenting themselves as accepting of multiculturalism, other religions, and avoiding controversial social issues. It's seems like it was only time before wealthy Jews started voting for the party that offers lower taxes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, they've already swung provincially as well... before any other group. Who would've expected Thornhill to go Tory in 2007? I mean, I suppose it is the only riding in the province that John Tory's religious schools issue would be a benefit, but still.

Well, to an extent you've actually answered your own question, haven't you? But there's also the issue that the Tories seem (at least from what I've read over the past near-decade; so I'll have likely missed important things that people actually in Canada will have noticed) to have (seriously) attempted to appeal to Jewish voters before other 'immigrant' minority groups, a process that includes carefully (or not so carefully in the case of the religious schools thing) developing specific policies aimed at boosting support and so on.

Of course just as interesting (at least to me) is the fact that the Liberals have let them do that; and then allowed them to do with with the other affluent 'immigrant' minorities as well. Complacency and inertia are tempting conclusions (especially as they double up as explanations for the slow-motion collapse of the federal Liberals generally), but I've no idea how true that actually is.

And, of course, the same sort of thing has happened with the rural minorities that also used to be a Liberal bedrock. Why so little resistance to Tory charms? I mean, the way that they've folded to the NDP in certain areas is less surprising (it isn't as though they've had much positive to offer to left wing and/or working class voters of late so once a certain point was reached the NDP were always pushing at an open door), but their apparent capitulation to the Tories amongst their old minority (urban/immigrant and rural/etc) fortresses is almost bizarre.

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Was that as common in Toronto as Montreal?

[Hatman 🍁]

Jew voting in strange.

In 2008, in Outremont, Jews voted liberal, except Orthodox Jews which voted for the NDP.

What???

Was that as common in Toronto as Montreal?

Yes, actually.  *cough* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._B._Salsberg

[DL]

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Was that as common in Toronto as Montreal?

Yes, in the late 40s and early 50s there were two Communist members of the Ontario legislature representing what is roughly now the federal riding of Trinity-Spadina. In those days that was the Jewish area of Toronto.

[Hatman 🍁]

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Was that as common in Toronto as Montreal?

Yes, in the late 40s and early 50s there were two Communist members of the Ontario legislature representing what is roughly now the federal riding of Trinity-Spadina. In those days that was the Jewish area of Toronto.

Only one of the MPPs were Jewish though (the one I linked to)

[Nichlemn]

Are Canadian Jews significantly different from American Jews, or does Harper's success among them represent something that could be replicated among US Republicans?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

not unless US Democrats turn on Israel

[ottermax]

Are Canadian Jews significantly different from American Jews, or does Harper's success among them represent something that could be replicated among US Republicans?

We already are seeing a shift among more conservative Jews, although many of them already were supporting the Republicans. I do think Jews are one of the few American groups whose children tend to be more conservative than their parents. Most Jews in my generation born in the 80s and 90s were raised in affluence and tend to be less faithful to the Democrats, taxes, etc. Also there is a growing divide in the Jewish community between more liberal folks who care more about broader domestic issues and those who place Zionism as their most fundamental issue. Many Jews even those who would otherwise be liberal on every issue from health care to gay marriage are still stuck on the issue of Zionism and don't see the current Democratic party as very supportive of Israel.

But I don't think America is anywhere close to where Canada is right now with demographic shifts. The Republicans still have succeeded despite alienating minority voters and probably will continue to do so for a long time. Look at California a state where minorities hold strong voting power and still the Democrats dominate among nearly every group. Jews here are much more embedded with the Democratic Party and unlike the Liberal Party of Canada, there are no replacement parties in the horizon to cut apart the vote and encourage Jews and other minorities to flee the Democratic Party. As long as the Republicans are so tightly associated with the Christian Right, they will not be given the Jewish vote outside of the Orthodox. However this upcoming election could change things as we have already witnessed a decline in 2008, and it looks like the GOP is steering itself away from their religious right convictions.

If it took this long for liberal Canada to see this shift, it will take several decades, or radical changes in the party system in the US for Jews to start changing their votes.

[Verily]

I have the impression that Jews in Canada are overall wealthier than Jews in the US. Canada, unlike the US, never had the waves of low-income Jewish immigration from Germany in the interbellum period or immediately after WWII or Russia during/after the Cold War, mainly because Canada doesn't have a city like New York City, where Jews are an enormous segment of the population and have been for a long time.

Also, the party dynamics are important. The Republican Party has been the party of evangelical Christianity since the 1980s, which is a huge turn-off to Jews; Reform/Alliance had hints of the same, but the Conservative Party has never been dominated by religious radicals the way the Republican Party is (and the Conservative Party has recognized the political necessity of suppressing the influence of evangelicals within the party).

[Hatman 🍁]

I have the impression that Jews in Canada are overall wealthier than Jews in the US. Canada, unlike the US, never had the waves of low-income Jewish immigration from Germany in the interbellum period or immediately after WWII or Russia during/after the Cold War, mainly because Canada doesn't have a city like New York City, where Jews are an enormous segment of the population and have been for a long time.

Maybe not to the degree of the US, but we did see that immigration in Montreal and Toronto, and those Jews were quite left wing. As mentioned, they elected some communists to all levels of government.

[minionofmidas]

Makes no sense to look at things in isolation. Liberal support has collapsed amongst pretty much all 'immigrant' communities over the past couple of elections, especially further out into the suburbs. Which is extremely significant as such communities have been one of their main electoral bulwarks since the 1950s and after Trudeau became their main source of strength. The process has been more extreme with Jewish voters though; of course the Tories have been wooing them in a serious way for longer than other minorities and, also, they're a more affluent group overall. Suspect that Israel is a factor for some (especially the more mainstream Orthodox) but generally issues like that are overrated.

The Jewish vote change in recent years has been striking, a lot more than any other immigrant group.

Integration matters here, I suppose. Basically not ethnic whites/ "an immigrant group" anymore. When they very much used to be.

[Hatman 🍁]

Makes no sense to look at things in isolation. Liberal support has collapsed amongst pretty much all 'immigrant' communities over the past couple of elections, especially further out into the suburbs. Which is extremely significant as such communities have been one of their main electoral bulwarks since the 1950s and after Trudeau became their main source of strength. The process has been more extreme with Jewish voters though; of course the Tories have been wooing them in a serious way for longer than other minorities and, also, they're a more affluent group overall. Suspect that Israel is a factor for some (especially the more mainstream Orthodox) but generally issues like that are overrated.

The Jewish vote change in recent years has been striking, a lot more than any other immigrant group.

Integration matters here, I suppose. Basically not ethnic whites/ "an immigrant group" anymore. When they very much used to be.

Kind of like Italians. Another group that has started to vote Tory (look at Vaughan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course the Jewish parts of Toronto and (I think to a lesser extent, but certainly Mount Royal fits) Montreal are amongst the most affluent - and in a comfortable suburban sense - parts of the city in question. So what if one or two of their grandparents voted Communist?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, time for another gerrymandered map. This time my mission was to get the NDP a seat using Moncton and Saint John,

I present to you this:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, now that is more 'American'.

[Hash]

I'm not sure how accurate the "PCs won Jews in 2007 because of religious schools" thing is. I can understand Orthodox liking it, but would secular/liberal Jews like it?

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm not sure how accurate the "PCs won Jews in 2007 because of religious schools" thing is. I can understand Orthodox liking it, but would secular/liberal Jews like it?

You explain it then.

[Hash]

I'm not sure how accurate the "PCs won Jews in 2007 because of religious schools" thing is. I can understand Orthodox liking it, but would secular/liberal Jews like it?

You explain it then.

I don't have an explanation for it, but I'm just saying that perhaps it isn't the religious schools thing which won so much of them over.