Gerrymandering Canada

[Novelty]

Would it be possible to gerrymander more Green seats?

[Hatman 🍁]

New challenge: gerrymander Ottawa-Orleans to elect the Liberal.

I had to shore up Orleans with parts of what was Ottawa-Vanier, I hope you don't mind:

Would it be possible to gerrymander more Green seats?

It's funny, I told my friend at work about what I was doing today (this), and he asked the same thing. I sincerely doubt it; although if you split up Saanich-Gulf Islands in such a way you could create 2 green seats... but I doubt it.

[adma]

Though the problem with a lot of these "gerrymander" exercises is that they can take most-recent-results too much at face value:  Canada simply isn't like the States where the Blue/Red divide is so stiff and eternal.  Sure, there are places which may *seem* otherwise (the Sask urb/ru divides being a classic case in point); but things can shift and still can shift in weird ways, to the point where one can trip over oneself in fabricating apparently "Tory" or "Liberal" (or, I guess now, "NDP") ridings in the 905...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Would it be possible to gerrymander more Green seats?

No, the Greens won far too few polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

Though the problem with a lot of these "gerrymander" exercises is that they can take most-recent-results too much at face value:  Canada simply isn't like the States where the Blue/Red divide is so stiff and eternal.  Sure, there are places which may *seem* otherwise (the Sask urb/ru divides being a classic case in point); but things can shift and still can shift in weird ways, to the point where one can trip over oneself in fabricating apparently "Tory" or "Liberal" (or, I guess now, "NDP") ridings in the 905...

Oh, I know. I think the point of this exercise is another way to analyze the election results

[Hatman 🍁]

OK, here's 13 NDP seats in Toronto



Comments?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The reason you are getting so many seats is you are not accounting for riding specifics.

[Hatman 🍁]

The reason you are getting so many seats is you are not accounting for riding specifics.

what?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Places like Rouge River voted NDP because of the local candidate. Unless you want to Somehow gerrymander that candidate, the NDP wont be winning both those ridings

[Hatman 🍁]

Places like Rouge River voted NDP because of the local candidate. Unless you want to Somehow gerrymander that candidate, the NDP wont be winning both those ridings

Oh, lol. Good point. The NDP could run 2 Tamils and get similar results. As I mentioned before, this is another fun way to analyze the election results.

[adma]

And when it comes to Humber-High Park, the "Humber" (Etobicoke) part would probably work to cancel out any NDP tendencies...

[lilTommy]

OK, here's 13 NDP seats in Toronto



Comments?

This is why i am so glad we do not let politicians gerrymander like in the US! TO looks ugly, Dufferin makes my eyes bleed... but it does remind me of the old city of Toronto ridings from the 30's, all long and stretched out along arteries:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Rosedale_-_1933.PNG

What if we try and gerrymander SW Ontario to get more NDP seats?

[Hatman 🍁]

OK, here's 13 NDP seats in Toronto



Comments?

This is why i am so glad we do not let politicians gerrymander like in the US! TO looks ugly, Dufferin makes my eyes bleed... but it does remind me of the old city of Toronto ridings from the 30's, all long and stretched out along arteries:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Rosedale_-_1933.PNG

What if we try and gerrymander SW Ontario to get more NDP seats?

Dufferin is great, it allows all those NDP voters at York to have an NDP MP

ETA: I could probably get another Windsor riding and another London riding and another Hamilton riding.

[minionofmidas]

A very reasonable map, much better than the current one, and evidently not a gerrymander at all.

[/ducks, hides]

[mileslunn]

Gerrymandering cannot work always, but you can gerrymander ridings to increase the odds of a certain party winning.  In the case of Guelph and Kingston & the Islands, the odds highly favour a Liberal win although a Tory and maybe even NDP under the right conditions are possible.  If the city was split into two ridings both extending into the rural areas, the odds would heavily favour a Conservative win but a Liberal win under the right conditions would still be possible.  Even in the US gerrymandering doesn't always work if the demographics of the Congressional district change enough to make it less favourable for a certain party.  The South is probably the easiest to gerrymander as voting patterns are based on heavily on race, otherwise African-Americans for the Democrats and Whites for the Republicans.  In Canada would don't have such racial polarization.

[Hatman 🍁]

Gerrymandering cannot work always, but you can gerrymander ridings to increase the odds of a certain party winning.  In the case of Guelph and Kingston & the Islands, the odds highly favour a Liberal win although a Tory and maybe even NDP under the right conditions are possible.  If the city was split into two ridings both extending into the rural areas, the odds would heavily favour a Conservative win but a Liberal win under the right conditions would still be possible.  Even in the US gerrymandering doesn't always work if the demographics of the Congressional district change enough to make it less favourable for a certain party.  The South is probably the easiest to gerrymander as voting patterns are based on heavily on race, otherwise African-Americans for the Democrats and Whites for the Republicans.  In Canada would don't have such racial polarization.

Kingston and Guelph need only be split in half to get rid of their Liberal advantage

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Another problem is that your victories are narrow. Saskatchewan has each of it's 8 "central" ridings have the cities being huge proportion; the NDP should have an advantage, but they dropped.

In other words, you could argue that Saskatchewan was gerrymandered to be pro-NDP, and that the NDP has been unable to perform.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another problem is that your victories are narrow. Saskatchewan has each of it's 8 "central" ridings have the cities being huge proportion; the NDP should have an advantage, but they dropped.

In other words, you could argue that Saskatchewan was gerrymandered to be pro-NDP, and that the NDP has been unable to perform.

Yes, I know. I would never advocate for these districts, obviously. Although chopping off Rosedale and adding it to Toronto-Danforth would probably benefit the NDP the most. Or creating a new riding that runs parallel to the Lake like DL suggested.

[Hatman 🍁]

London, ON gerrymander to get 2 NDP seats.



I would do Windsor, but I would need a map of Essex County, and Krago hasn't made one yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hamilton was easy to gerrymander 4 NDP ridings. I was hoping for a district that extended all the way to Brantford, but it was unnecessary. Perhaps gerrymandering a 5th NDP district would be possible.

[DL]

Dufferin is great, it allows all those NDP voters at York to have an NDP MP

There is actually no reason for those NDP voters at York not to have an NDP MP even with the current boundaries for York West riding! York West is actually just about the poorest riding in Ontario and has a very large Black population. That area was a big provincial NDP stronghold from the 1950s to 1995! If the NDP actually targets that seat next time and spends the maximum and has a good candidate - it should be highly winnable. Judy Sgro the Liberal incumbent is not particularly formidable either.

[Holmes]

How glorious it would be if Sgro were to be defeated, especially by an NDP candidate. Unfortunately, by the time the next election is called, I won't be living in the riding anymore.

[adma]

Of course, things might resolve themselves on the NDP's Rathika-esque behalf should Sgro opt to retire instead--she's 66 years old, after all...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?authuser=0&ie=UTF8&hl=en&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004a8b289f2c3d734afe

[Smid]

A couple of points. Firstly, and I was thinking of this relative to Hamilton, creating a fourth seat may push Niagara West - Glanbrook over and adversely (for the NDP) impact on Welland, so overall, actually create a net no change overall.

Secondly, and this is merely an expansion on Teddy's thoughts earlier, a gerrymander may make it harder for one party to win a majority, but if they win by a reasonable margin, their majority will be much bigger because the other party will win more seats on a thinner margin and have fewer safe seats. Those central Saskatchewan seats might theoretically favour the NDP in an average election (8-0, or 7-1) but if the NDP performs worse than average, those results flip the other way around. The fewer safe seats can then make it difficult for the "natural" governing party to rebuild following a poor electoral showing, with fewer choices for the front bench giving them less credibility as the alternative government.

At the risk of sounding clichéd, it's that whole "Chinese symbol for crisis being the symbols for opportunity and threat" thing... A gerrymander may make it easier for a party to retain government, but if they lose, they're more likely to lose big. It may make it slightly harder for the other party to form government, but when they do, they will probably have a bigger majority and thus make it harder for the other party to claw its way back and a stronger mandate to implement policy - potentially giving them greater legitimacy in the eyes of the voters and making it easier for that party to retain government once it has won.

In short, a gerrymander is in some respects self-balancing, and only beneficial to one party over the short-term, in the longer term it makes no difference.