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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Latest 2012 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
dporceddu (D-WA)MapProfile 10-20 2 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
Firefly (D-FL)MapProfile 11-05 1 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
rosin (I-DNK)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 1
brown73 (D-VA)MapProfile 06-08 1 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
Angry_Weasel (D-CT)MapProfile 09-19 2 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 2
boyohio02 (O-OH)Map 10-11 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
brandon.herren (I-CA)Map 10-27 22 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
franzl (D-DEU)MapProfile 10-30 2 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
HockeyDude (I-NJ)MapProfile 10-30 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
Izixs (D-NH)MapProfile 11-02 4 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 5
Latest 2012 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
AntonioV (D-CA)MapProfile 11-06 15 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
theprezmex (D-MEX)MapProfile 11-06 9 R +65 244 (+65) 294 (-65) 0 (0) 0
wjvenner (R-VA)Map 11-06 1 R +102 281 (+102) 257 (-102) 0 (0) 0
DantheRoman (I-MA)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +69 248 (+69) 290 (-69) 0 (0) 0
benconstine (D-VA)MapProfile 11-06 9 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
cp (G-QC)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
MilesC56 (D-VA)MapProfile 11-06 61 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 2
texasgurl24 (D-JPN)MapProfile 11-06 9 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
kylesammin (R-PA)Map 11-06 11 R +116 295 (+116) 243 (-116) 0 (0) 0
redefeatbush004 (D-MT)Map 11-06 13 R +75 254 (+75) 284 (-75) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2012 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Colbert (O-FRA)
by President_91 on 2018-09-08 @ 17:10:28
MapProfile 03-06 1 R +90 269 (+90) 269 (-90) 0 (0) 2
rosin (I-DNK)
by RileyUhr on 2016-10-21 @ 16:47:13
MapProfile 11-06 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 1
Angry_Weasel (D-CT)
by Angry_Weasel on 2014-10-24 @ 21:36:43
MapProfile 09-19 2 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 2
MOPolitico (I-MO)
by MOPolitico on 2014-09-22 @ 11:25:44
MapProfile 08-04 4 R +44 223 (+44) 315 (-44) 0 (0) 1
Americanadian (D-ON)
by Flo on 2013-10-18 @ 17:39:27
Map 09-08 8 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 7
MilesC56 (D-VA)
by MilesC56 on 2013-08-06 @ 14:21:43
MapProfile 11-06 61 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 2
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by Ickey415 on 2013-05-23 @ 12:40:59
MapProfile 11-05 111 R +82 261 (+82) 277 (-82) 0 (0) 23
WhyteRain (I-TX)
by thornestorm on 2012-12-24 @ 02:40:13
MapProfile 11-06 9 R +90 269 (+90) 269 (-90) 0 (0) 9
thornestorm (G-CA)
by thornestorm on 2012-12-02 @ 23:02:43
Map 08-12 9 R +11 190 (+11) 348 (-11) 0 (0) 11
KS21 (I-KS)
by KS21 on 2012-11-18 @ 15:13:37
MapProfile 11-06 28 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 4
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 31731 times)
ElectionAtlas
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« on: July 20, 2011, 08:57:49 pm »
« edited: September 09, 2011, 10:48:32 am by Dave Leip »

Hi,
I've enabled the 2012 General Election Presidential Prediction Script here

Enjoy and let me know if you find any bugs.

the Primary Predictions for the Republican 2012 primary season will be available after the calendar gets nailed down.

Enjoy,
Dave

Compiled Prediction Map
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2011, 10:23:48 pm »

Cheesy  You're awesome.
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Free Palestine
FallenMorgan
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« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2011, 10:38:01 pm »

Will there also be prediction maps for Senate and Governatorial elections?
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2011, 03:22:00 am »

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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2011, 06:04:02 am »

Will there also be prediction maps for Senate and Governatorial elections?

Yes - although I usually create those later as the candidates become more settled.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2011, 12:13:04 pm »

One small thing I noticed - When I tried updating my prediction, when I got to the review page, the paragraphs for the analysis are all bunched together and it does some funky things. For example:

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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2011, 04:11:39 pm »

Making my map for if the election were held today; I'll wait until later for my final prediction.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2011, 05:54:52 pm »

I love you, Dave!
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2011, 06:37:03 pm »

Thank you Dave! Smiley
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Free Palestine
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« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2011, 07:08:09 pm »

Will there also be prediction maps for Senate and Governatorial elections?

Yes - although I usually create those later as the candidates become more settled.

Cool.

All hail Dave!
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2011, 10:32:58 pm »

One small thing I noticed - When I tried updating my prediction, when I got to the review page, the paragraphs for the analysis are all bunched together and it does some funky things. For example:

Quote
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Hi - I don't see that - what browser/os are you using?

Also, I noticed that comments were disabled for everyone - I have removed the disable.

Enjoy,
Dave
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #11 on: July 22, 2011, 12:07:55 pm »

I was using Firefox. I'll try Internet Explorer and see if it works.
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Paul Kemp
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« Reply #12 on: July 22, 2011, 12:17:35 pm »
« Edited: July 22, 2011, 12:25:00 pm by Dick Whitman »

And on the 20th day of July, He returned.
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2011, 08:07:11 am »

How do I get my prediction to show up here?
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2011, 08:24:45 am »

Well, my prediction map is pretty easy to imagine, since I start with the 2004 results.  So here it is:

Give Obama all of the states won by Kerry in 2004, then subtract these six:  Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maine.

That will give Obama 191 electoral votes; the other 347 will go to the Republican.

As far as I can see, that's the most optimistic (for the GOP) prediction at this site.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2011, 01:51:37 am »

In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2011, 12:35:38 pm »

Come down to NV,CO, and OH.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #17 on: December 18, 2011, 03:13:14 pm »

Surely Obama will win Ohio with less than 40%... Roll Eyes

Some people really don't think.
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #18 on: February 07, 2012, 08:21:20 pm »

I still see Obama winning at least 330 electoral votes.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #19 on: March 06, 2012, 01:45:59 pm »

Man some of these predictions make me sad.

Obama winning Arkansas?
Republicans winning Maine 2?

Really?
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2012, 08:38:30 am »

In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.


My prediction, which is on here somewhere (I can't find it) also uses Kerry's 2004 performance:  Obama wins all of Kerry's states but six:  Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine.  Result:  Obama gets 191 EV.
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R2D2 (Voting for the Not Fascist)
20RP12
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« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2012, 03:16:49 pm »

I still see Obama winning at least 330 electoral votes.

Please, extrapolate.
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2012, 12:47:47 pm »

In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.


My prediction, which is on here somewhere (I can't find it) also uses Kerry's 2004 performance:  Obama wins all of Kerry's states but six:  Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine.  Result:  Obama gets 191 EV.
What evidence do you have that Romney will win OR, MN, and/or ME? I can see NH, PA, and maybe WI, but unless Europe collapses, Romney won't win in a landslide (or at all).
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True Federalist
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« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2012, 01:42:06 am »

I think I'll start doing my commentary on which forum predictions are most susceptible to change again.

As of 8 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 11 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 5 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
Missouri: 18 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 7 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 17 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 3 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 15 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 11 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
North Dakota: 3 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
New Hampshire: 7 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 11 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
South Carolina: 11 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Ohio: 15 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Mexico: 17 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Missouri: 18 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2012, 11:22:49 pm »

As of 9 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 13 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 5 changes (NC) to go from 40% R to 50% R
Missouri: 19 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 8 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 18 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 9 changes (-1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 4 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 17 changes (+2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 8 changes (-3) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (-1) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
North Dakota: 4 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
Virginia: 7 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 8 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
South Carolina: 8 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nevada: 9 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 13 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Ohio: 17 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Mexico: 18 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Missouri: 19 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
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