Closest elections

[skybridge]

I will say that 1876 had the closest electoral college, while 1880 had the closest popular vote in history. How interesting that these are consecutive elections.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

well the 1876 election's EV counts aren't exactly valid...

[zorkpolitics]

The 24 yr from 1876 to 1900 (after Grant until Roosevelt) was a period of very close elections in the popular vote, ranging from difference of -3% to +3%.  It included the closest election in US history, 1880, (<0.1% separated the candidates) and included two 'wrong winners', when the winner in the Electoral College was second in the popular vote. 

There are predictions that we may have entered a similar period which predicts more close elections in coming years.

[skybridge]

Possibly, but then again, 2004 wasn't as close as 2000 officially

[tinman64]

It was the closest margin by which an incumbant won since 1916, though.

[dca5347]

It was the closest margin by which an incumbant won since 1916, though.

I believe that this is because Johnson didn't run in 1968.I believe if he had,he might have won,but by a very close margin!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1800: 1 electoral vote different and it wouldn't have gone to the House/Senate

1824:
House choose.
1. House could have chosen someone else
2. Jackson would have won a majority of the electoral vote with a swing to him of of 439 Missouri Clay votes, 5314 Kentucky Clay votes, and 384 Ohio Clay votes

1836:
VP race thrown to House. R. Johnson wins anyways. 1 more electoral vote, and it wouldn't have been thrown.

1844:
Polk wins PV by 1.46%, a swing of 2554 New York votes from Polk to Clay would have won it for Clay.

1848:
Swing to Cass from Taylor of 1634 Connecticut, 519 Florida, and 1374 Georgia votes would have swong it. Other ways work, including a swing of 6773 Pennsylvania votes.

1876:
Tilden actually wins the PV by 3.02% (hey, that's better than Bush). Swings of *ANY* of the following votes from Hayes to Tilden would have swung it:
1400 California
462 Florida
9811 Illinois
2404 Lousiana
538 Nevada
1516 New Hampshire
3525 Ohio
526 Oregon
445 South Carolina
3065 Wisconsin
Hayes also needed all 3 of Colorado's electors appointed for him to win
Disputed election

1880:
Garfield wins PV by 0.02%.
A swing to Hancock of 1331 Connecticut, 3324 Indiana, 2030 New Hampshire, and 333 Oregon votes.
Or a swing of 10517 New York.

1884:
Cleveland wins PV by 0.25%
Blaine would have won with a swing of 524 voters in Cleveland's home state of New York.

1888:
Cleveland actually wins PV by 0.80%.
A swing of 7187 votes in his home state of New York, and he would have beaten Harrison in the electoral college.

1892:
It would have been thrown with a swing away from Cleveland of
74 California
253 Deleware
2088 West Virginia
2682 Connecticut
3113 Wisonsin
3563 Indiana
7483 New Jersey
a couple more states and Harrison would win outright.

1916:
Despite a PV win of 3.12% for Wilson, Hughes would have won if 1887 California voters switched

1948, 1960, 1968, 1976, 1992, 1996, 2000:
See Atlas What ifs

2004:
Bush wins PV by 2.46%.
A swing of 59388 Ohio votes from Bush to Kerry would win it for Kerry.
The election would be thrown to the House/Senate with a swing of 10751 Nevada, 2995 New Mexico, and 5030 Iowa votes, a total of 18776 votes (0.015% of cast votes).
Another way for Kerry to win is with those 18776 votes, and a swing of 39933 Alaska votes for a total of only 58709 votes (0.048% of cast votes).