was this map ever a realistic possibility in 1968?
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  was this map ever a realistic possibility in 1968?
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Author Topic: was this map ever a realistic possibility in 1968?  (Read 1751 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: July 11, 2011, 03:58:27 PM »

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tpfkaw
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2011, 05:06:29 PM »

Yes, Wallace was polling in the low 20s (no doubt an underpoll, too) at one point.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2011, 05:29:31 PM »
« Edited: July 11, 2011, 05:33:47 PM by Anonymous Irish Alcoholic »


Oh it's quite possible really.
More than anything it really depends on who the candidates are.  Oh the events and circumstances also impact the election but in 1968 it definitely depended on who the candidate was.  I really can't think of any election in the 20th century that had as much twists and turns as the 1968 election.  I mean really what other election in the 20th century can you think of that had:
1) An incumbent favored to win at the beginning of the year who would end up dropping out of the race after being challenged by a little known anti-war Senator from Wisconsin?
2) The second youngest son of America's most popular family becoming the favored party nominee......before being tragically gunned down in a hotel kitchen?
3) The previously little known Senator from Wisconsin becoming the primary favorite only to get snubbed at the national convention leading to one of the most uncivil party conventions in history?
4) One of the heroes of the Civil Rights Era being nominated for the party nomination sending southern pro-segregation faction into outrage?
5) An influential Southern Democrat forms his own ticket based around the same idea as the State's Rights ticket in 1948 to try win enough Electoral College votes to deny either party the victory.
This thread asks about a "realistic possibility", well I would say that the course of 1968 would be considered in most other elections to be pretty "unrealistic".
In fact I would argue that the only part of the 1968 Electoral season that stayed constant was NIXON.  Since at least 1966 everybody and their grandmother was predicting that Nixon would be THE ONE to win the Republican nomination.  He was favored to win the GOP nod at the beginning of the season, he was favored to win in it during the season, and he won it in the end.  Against a pretty demotivated and gaffe prone field he did that and won against a chaotic Democratic Party in 1968, even with George Wallace playing the role of vote stealer.
Given that, I would have to predict that the for this map to be possible the one constant, NIXON, would have to be taken out of the equation.  Though I will admit if somebody can think of a scenario in 1968 where Nixon is the candidate in the aforementioned map, I would consider it given a very well thought out argument.

Here are some important questions you should ask given Walter's map:
1) What are the exact numbers in some of the closest states?  The 40% shading in New York could mean the Democratic candidate won by almost 10%, or they won by only .10%.
2) What candidates in both parties would cause enough of a stink for Southerners to give rise to a strong third party performance by (presumably) George Wallace that results in victories in Texas and Virginia?
3) What Democratic candidate could win in California in 1968 given a not-so favorable environment for the Democrats (given that there is no electoral majority for anybody)?  Likewise, the absence of what Republican candidates could make winning California a possibility for Democrats in 1968?
4) How much/less momentum would be going for the major tickets in order for this map to be possible?
5) How does LBJ handle the Vietnam War in 1968?  Does he remain vigilant about continuing, does he call for withdrawing the troops in the face of a winless war, or does he pursue a policy in between the two?

Here's what I think would happen for this map to make sense:

1. LBJ drops out of the race like he did in real life.  This would have to be because if he were still in the race come November the Democrats losing Texas would make no sense.  Believe me, I come from a Texas family and more often than not Texans would vote for circus clown for President if he was a Texan.  This might be less true today if the candidate is a Democrat, but back in 1968 when Texans were still on Democratic withdrawal.........oh boy.
2. Robert Kennedy runs for the Democratic Nomination and after his speech at the Ambassador Hotel in LA he gets shot.......in the arm or the shoulder.  Pretty much he gets a mild injury and belittling jokes are made at the expense of the fail of an assassin for years to come (kind of like what happened to John Hinckley Jr.).  Either that or Sirhan loses his balls and decides not to go through with it.  Doesn't matter what Sirhan does, because apparently he fails to kill RFK.  I'm less sure on this as I am LBJ running (which I would have to say I would be 110% beyond sure wouldn't happen given this map) but given the Democratic candidate performs well in Missouri and California I'm guessing would be possible.  Also, I believe that with RFK going into the Convention, with some of his connections to political machines as well as his own popularity, the convention and the aftermath would be quite a bit more harmonious than in real life.
3. Didn't really intend to throw this one in here but Edmund Muskie is still nominated the Vice Presidential candidate on the Democratic side given the 50%+ Democratic performance in usually Republican Maine.
4. Nixon decides to permanently retire from politics.  Or somehow his campaign for President bombs horribly.  Either way, somehow a moderate/liberal Republican wins the nomination.  I'm saying this because the ticket seems to have zero appeal in the traditional South thus explaining AIP victories in places like Virginia and Florida.  Out of the Republican candidates not named Nixon who had a chance I'm guessing it would either be George Romney or Nelson Rockefeller.  I can not say for sure, given that both Michigan and New York still go for the Democrats.  If forced at gunpoint I would guess that Rockefeller somehow wins the nomination since him losing New York would make a little more sense (RFK was US Senator from New York).  I'm also going to assume that Agnew isn't the VP (given Maryland) and that a random Republican (meh, I'll probably say Charles Percy of Illinois) is nominated.
The rest of the season after the conventions:
RFK overperforms for a Democrat in states like California, Maine, Michigan and Missouri.
Rockefeller underperforms for a Republican in states like Michigan, Missouri, Kentucky, Connecticut, and Maine.  The latter two are surprising given how traditionally Republican they are, but given RFK's charisma and political ability along with Muskie's presence on the ticket it makes sense.

That's what I'm guessing would make this map possible.
As for the House outcome........no idea.
Looks like I opened up a whole new can of worms with that one.
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GeorgiaSenator
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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2011, 09:08:08 AM »

Yes, very realistic if...

1. Maybe if they had a presidential debate at the end of the campaign, this might have been the result (thank you previous posters)

2. Wallace concentrated his campaign efforts in the south instead of running a national campaign
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DS0816
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« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2011, 02:14:44 AM »

was this map ever a realistic possibility in 1968?

No.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2015, 08:17:11 PM »

Awarding all states with less than a 2.5% margin to Humphrey yields the following map:

Humphrey 261
Nixon 232
Wallace 45

With Humphrey winning a plurality of both the PV and EVs, Wallace would be under enormous pressure. Had he instructed his electors to vote for Nixon, the fallout would probably have been worse than 2000. The best case would be for HHH to win a majority of EVs, but that seems unlikely in retrospect.
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