Is this a realistic 1968 map RFK-Nixon-Wallace?
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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  Is this a realistic 1968 map RFK-Nixon-Wallace?
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Author Topic: Is this a realistic 1968 map RFK-Nixon-Wallace?  (Read 2244 times)
hawkeye59
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« on: June 29, 2011, 11:03:11 PM »



*ahem* Rouge Beaver *ahem*
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2011, 11:14:41 PM »
« Edited: June 29, 2011, 11:22:43 PM by Scott »

Make Texas red, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and California blue, and Arkansas, Louisiana, and Georgia green. Smiley

Also, RFK was not in this election.  Hubert Humphrey ran as the Democrat.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2011, 09:40:17 AM »

If only this forum worked like facebook where if you "tagged" Roguebeaver, he'd know about it and be able to pop over to this thread once he logs on.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2011, 09:45:53 AM »

I don't see how RFK could affect the Nixon v. Wallace race in the South. I think it'd just give Wallace more votes.
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hawkeye59
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« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2011, 11:43:36 AM »

I don't see how RFK could affect the Nixon v. Wallace race in the South. I think it'd just give Wallace more votes.
Many of Wallace's voters were populist, blue-collar voters, some of whom would have supported Kennedy. Kennedy appealed to blue-collar voters.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2011, 11:52:25 AM »

I don't see how RFK could affect the Nixon v. Wallace race in the South. I think it'd just give Wallace more votes.
Many of Wallace's voters were populist, blue-collar voters, some of whom would have supported Kennedy. Kennedy appealed to blue-collar voters.

Wasn't Humphrey a favorite of Labor?
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2011, 12:00:24 PM »

I've always though Kennedy had a chance at Indiana. But, Nixon would not have carried Georgia by a larger margin than he does South Carolina and Tennessee. North Carolina only goes to Kennedy with Terry Sanford on the ticket. In reality, I don't think that Nixon would carry Georgia because of George Wallace. Florida would probably be closer than shown on your map, but Nixon would carry it. I think Kennedy has a better chance of taking California than Humphrey did. Texas is probably lean Kennedy. And, I don't think Kennedy would loose Ohio but win Indiana instead. He would carry Ohio before he did Indiana.
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hcallega
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« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2011, 01:10:08 PM »

I love my man RB, but election maps aren't his strongest area. IMO, your map is decent. Here is what my map looks like in this scenario:
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Paul Kemp
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« Reply #8 on: June 30, 2011, 02:19:21 PM »

Also, RFK was not in this election.  Hubert Humphrey ran as the Democrat.

Past Election What-ifs (US)
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shua
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2011, 03:29:37 PM »

RFK would likely take IA and WI. I don't see him taking IN.
also, what GPORTER said.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2011, 10:26:56 AM »

I would say both maps are fairly realistic. While RFK won the IN primary convincingly IOTL, 500,000 more Republicans voted for Nixon alone than in the Democratic primary. So scratch Indiana.

Kennedy wins Ohio and can win California if he nearly burns himself out (as happened in the primary IOTL) stumping the state when possible, plus a more efficient GOTV machine. Ultimately CA hangs on GOTV, particularly in LA County for RFK and NoCa for Nixon.

Kennedy-Wallace: Many Northern and Midwestern WWC voters who voted Wallace in the general voted for RFK in the primary and adamantly refused to consider Nixon. I don't recall any stats being done but numerous anecdotal sources, both primary and secondary, suggest that the number was significant. It was a cultural/personal vote thing, BTW.
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hawkeye59
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« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2011, 03:57:54 PM »

How's this?

RFK/Sanford 271
Nixon/Agnew 240
Wallace/LeMay 27
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Thomas D
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« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2011, 05:01:11 PM »

How's this?

RFK/Sanford 271
Nixon/Agnew 240
Wallace/LeMay 27

Yeah. I could see this being the results. Though NC is a bit of a stretch.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2011, 07:28:32 PM »

Personally I think Sanders would be a better pick for RFK's Veep. Somewhere in between the Old and New South on racial issues, plus the same age as RFK and not tarred as a traitor like Sanford. But that's just me- partially because so many RFK TLs (and Dem victory '68 TLs generally) have Sanford as VP.

Also: NJ is a possible RFK pickup due to his strength among WWCs, especially Catholics.
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