2011 Canadian election maps

[lilTommy]

Toronto, as promised.



Right click for huge version.

Fantastic map, whats really exciting for the NewDemocrats is that they 1) finally won ridings that containted traditionally been strong (parkdale, dovercourt, york south, scarb SW), but 2) won polls and made inroads in new areas (Scarb Rouge River... the NDP's young tamil candidate helped more than anything, York west and even Don Valley east). Those will all be targets come October

[lilTommy]

Tamil candidate as well, also an open seat. But still amazing.

Scarborough-Rouge River and Davenport weren't looking than they would go to the NPD 5 years later.

Bit of an understatement regarding Scarborough-Rouge River, which was one of the safest seats for any party and looked totally impregnable.

Looks like the NDP noticed they did a masterful job with the nomination of Rathika (current MP), they Nominated Neethan Shan, another Tamil who previously ran in October for City Council... this wouldn't have been a huge target before May; now its on the NDP's radar

[lilTommy]

Did Jack even visit the riding much? It was not on anyone's radar in the pundit world. If Andrea visits the riding, we'll know we have a shot.

I don't think he visited that riding specifically, i think he did show up in scarborough though? (someone can correct me here) i know they had events in most of the ridings on the west side the NDP won.
Like Bramelea-Gore-Malton (wasn't won but a strong surprising second!), Scar. RR was a pleasant surprise and i expect Andrea to show up in both ridings... since the same candidate that ran federally, Jameet Singh (sikh lawyer) is running again in BGM. And Neethan has more name recognition from past campaigns.

[lilTommy]

I spoke to Dan Harris (we go way back to our days in ONDY, was elected in Scarborough SW) at the NDP platform launch it must have been April 10thish, anyway at that point he was confident he could win... but SSW had no incumbant and a scandal around the tory candidate... plus this was Dan's i believe 8th run at office.

there are some great maps being show over on Rabble if anyone wants too look, they don't define the poll border (which i hate) but give some great pictures... Shilly's maps are better

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/electoral-maps-2011-federal-election-poll-poll-results

[lilTommy]

...and they had.

And York, UofT, UofWindsor, UofOttawa all went NDP (i believe?)... so i think it all is dependent on who on the "left" who can defeat a tory.

[lilTommy]

How about some urban/rural ridings...

Peterborough
Chatham-Kent-Essex
Prince Edward-Hastings (i believe thats belleville)
Brant

Oh and Kingston... curious about that one

[lilTommy]

Labrador is interesting. Looks like the NDP could win Labrador West in the provincial election

Well, they did hold it before, but when the MHA in question is now in jail for corruption, I'm not sure how much of a sign that is.

Well, it was the 2nd best NDP riding in the 2007 election, so it's certainly one to watch.

I also checked out your Charlottetown map. Very interesting. Again, could mean something in the provincial election- but probably not. (NDP won the Downtown part of the city)

The "Downtown" area has always been somewhat NDP friendly. It's convincing voters that voting NDP is not a wasted ballot that's not so easy.

Hearing all kinds of excitment about the next nfld election, the NDP replacing the Liberals! its too early but i'm hearing pickups in St. Johns... maybe Lab W.

And i think the last PEI election the then leader ran in the DT riding of Charlottetown, and that was the best result for the party that election (not saying much when the NPD polled under 2%

[lilTommy]

Great thread to return to after a little while away from the forum (even though I seemed to have missed krago's maps). That Toronto map is really really interesting.

Perhaps the most surprising thing so far is the sharpness of the line between Vancouver South and Kingsway, which isn't that sharp of a divide either ethnically or economically, and doesn't have a straightforward strategic explanation. Just evidence of the impact of whether a party bothers to really contest a riding with a local GOTV effort, I guess.

Left wing people vote Liberal in Vancouver South. Provincially, the area is Liberal as well. You can see the mayoral race here: http://bc2009.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/2008-vanmunielections-2009-boundaries.gif which shows more of a gradual shift in the right vs left vote. (i'm in the process of making my own version of that map for my blog, among the many projects I have on the go)

Next Federal if the NDP runs Meena Wong again, and the liberals don't have any type of good candidate (not all that likely) i would see this as competative again but still leaning conservative. Van-Fraserview though i think is more in play (provincial riding) If Yiu wins the nomination i think he might have this one... many say he was robbed after all the controversy around Heed, Fraserview and Fairview are targets no matter who the candidates are.

[lilTommy]

Welcome back!
I love whats happeneing in Peterborough... and in general is some smaller cities (Lethbridge, Brantford, wonder what Chatham looks like another NDP mayor there) the Liberals were almost shut out, i went to school there and (one of the Trent polls went NDP) and so did most of the "city" as well as a few polls out in Smith-Ennismore-Lakefield (wrong order maybe) but the Reeve is a Dipper there (Mary Smith), with redistribution the riding will likely lose some rural areas but not much since its just over the 100000 mark.

[lilTommy]

Here is Ontario by municipality.  Since this map didn't show all of Nipissing District I left it out although I will give the figures in a later post.  The NDP in Southern Ontario only won Hamilton, Thorold, Welland, Port Colborne, Tecumseh, and Windsor.  The Liberals only won Deep River, Casselman, Kingston, Toronto, and Guelph.  Only in Windsor did the NDP crack the 50% mark while the Liberals in none.  The Tories got above 30% in every municipality using the present boundaries and even pre-amalgmation, Toronto, East York, York, Ottawa, and Vanier were the only ones they failed to crack the 30% mark.  Likewise in Nipissing District, West Nipissing was the only municipality where they got under 30%.

Is anyone else surprised the NDP won towns along the lake in Parry Sound and Muskoka? or am i seeing this map wrong? which towns are they?