2011 Canadian election maps (user search)
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Author Topic: 2011 Canadian election maps  (Read 62352 times)
MaxQue
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« on: June 20, 2011, 12:34:30 AM »

We will still need the updated polling maps.

The 2008 maps won't necessary work with the 2011 results.

When a riding sees an increase in voters, a new poll is created from an existing poll. (i.e. 54 splits into 54 and 54-1).

 If a poll becomes too large on Election Day, an ‘alpha’ spilt occurs.  (i.e. 54A, 54B, 54C.  Voters who’s last ends in A-H vote in 54A, I-Q in 54B, and R-Z in 54C.).

If a riding sees a lot of splits, then the riding is most likely going to be renumbered in the following election. The polling maps become obsolete.

If you want to compare a riding.

Compare the Poll Numbers from the 2008 and 2011.

Find the Highest Regular Poll Number (polling number up to 399) from the 2008 election to 2011
election.

If they are the same then you should be able to use the map for that riding.

If not, the riding has re-numbered its polls. The occurs in ridings that has seen a sharp increase in voters (i.e. the 905 region outside Toronto)

Polls are number the following ways:
1 – 399      Regular Poll
400 Series   Mostly apartment blocks, and other single polling locations.
500 Series   Mobile Polls, Personal Care Homes, Hospitals, etc.
600 Series    Advance Polls


I hope this helps

  I was more thinking in terms of towns and geographical areas for rural ridings while neighbourhoods for urban ones.  Even if the poll numbers don't match, you can still visually get an idea of where each party has its support.

Well, usually, the poll by poll results names the town in which the poll is.
So, in those cases, a town map is possible.
Which is a bit useless, rural areas aren't experiencing growth, in general, so, no new precincts.
And for neighbourhoods, no. Sometimes, while they renumber, they move the numbers all around the riding, if I remember well.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2011, 12:39:06 AM »

We will still need the updated polling maps.

The 2008 maps won't necessary work with the 2011 results.

When a riding sees an increase in voters, a new poll is created from an existing poll. (i.e. 54 splits into 54 and 54-1).

 If a poll becomes too large on Election Day, an ‘alpha’ spilt occurs.  (i.e. 54A, 54B, 54C.  Voters who’s last ends in A-H vote in 54A, I-Q in 54B, and R-Z in 54C.).

If a riding sees a lot of splits, then the riding is most likely going to be renumbered in the following election. The polling maps become obsolete.

If you want to compare a riding.

Compare the Poll Numbers from the 2008 and 2011.

Find the Highest Regular Poll Number (polling number up to 399) from the 2008 election to 2011
election.

If they are the same then you should be able to use the map for that riding.

If not, the riding has re-numbered its polls. The occurs in ridings that has seen a sharp increase in voters (i.e. the 905 region outside Toronto)

Polls are number the following ways:
1 – 399      Regular Poll
400 Series   Mostly apartment blocks, and other single polling locations.
500 Series   Mobile Polls, Personal Care Homes, Hospitals, etc.
600 Series    Advance Polls


I hope this helps

  I was more thinking in terms of towns and geographical areas for rural ridings while neighbourhoods for urban ones.  Even if the poll numbers don't match, you can still visually get an idea of where each party has its support.

Well, usually, the poll by poll results names the town in which the poll is.
So, in those cases, a town map is possible.
Which is a bit useless, rural areas aren't experiencing growth, in general, so, no new precincts.
And for neighbourhoods, no. Sometimes, while they renumber, they move the numbers all around the riding, if I remember well.
  Even if numbers change dramatically, you can still compare maps visually.  Also hopefully we can do maps for entire cities like the GVRD, Toronto, Island of Montreal, Quebec City, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.  It would be interesting to see where each party's strength is in each city.

We can compare maps, but how are we supposed to do the new map if numbers are changed very much?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2011, 04:49:14 PM »

I think there are maps with the update poll by poll.  I realize you cannot compare poll by poll with last time, but you can still produce a visual image and compare those.  We already have those from 2008 in another thread, so this will be for 2011.

No, the maps are not provided by Elections Canada.

They are provided by Geogratis.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2011, 05:40:33 AM »



To see the map of the 2008 election: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2545_04_07_09_6_12_18.png

Map instructions:
Chibougamau is the square thing at the bottom-right of the Northern Quebec map. Chapais is just to the west. Waswinipi is in the Bloc precinct (brown thing in the middle) and Lebel-sur-Quévillon too (it is the dot near the southern border). Matagami is to the west of that, in a 40% NDP precinct. Kuujjuaraapik and Whapmagoostui is the black dot in the south-east of the lonely Conservative precinct in Northern Quebec.
Vallée-de-l'Or goes below Northern Quebec. Senneterre is in the middle of the blue area, Val-d'or is the really big black area and Malartic is near the western border of the riding.

The grey precinct in Malartic is a Bloc-NDP tie.

So what to say.

Bloc won 2.5 precincts, while Liberals won 4 and Greens 5.

So, explanations.
Begin with the Green vote. Their candidate was a Inuit. He had excellent results in Inuit reservations and nothing elsewhere. His home reservation should be easy to guess.

Conservative vote. Well, the candidate was the very popular mayor of Senneterre. He won... Senneterre area, with more 60% at some places. The reservation win in the north is strange, but Inuit reservations always had strange vote patterns.

Liberal vote. Four inuit villages. There is a good news for them, their vote grew to around 15-20% in southern Val-d'Or. Bad news, they lost their lock on reservations and they polled around 2% in most French Northern Quebec and had 0 votes in a few precincts.

Bloc vote. Collapse. They tied NDP in a small Malartic precincts, won a precinct in economically depressed Lebel-sur-Quévillon and won with 4 votes on 6 casted in Desmaraisville, a clinically dead town (the dark BQ precinct around Waswanipi and Lebel-sur-Quévillon).

NDP vote. Well, they won no precinct last time. So, the candidate was a Cree, Cree voted for him massively. He got over 90% in his native reservation of Waswanipi. Chibougamau seems to love him, he had over 50% in all precincts. Last time, the city was a Bloc stronghold. They swept Val-d'Or, too.

I don't see a clear correation between Bloc support in 2008 and NDP support in 2011. Some areas swinged ''more'' than other ones.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2011, 10:27:02 PM »

To me, North Bay is borderline on being in Northern Ontario. It doesn't politically behave like Northern Ontario, and, I went there a few times and it doesn't feel like Abitibi/North-Eastern Ontario.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2011, 11:16:24 PM »

North Bay is one place in northern Ontario that has absolutely no history of NDP support. ThunderBay, Sudbury, Timmins, the Soo have all gone NDP federally and provincially quite regularly, but North Bay never does and in fact the NDP is almost always a distant third there. is there any theory or reason as to why this is the case?

I've asked my Dad this (my Dad is from there) on a few occasions. I think he mentioned something about the rest of Northern Ontario having a tradition of mining, and miners were/are NDP voters. North Bay's main industry however was the railroads, and that's dead now.

Interestingly, both of my Dad's parents are/were NDP supporters (my Dad's not... it skipped a generation), and both lived in North Bay. Go figure.

Oh, and Nipissing does have an NDP history! It voted CCF provincially in 1943 Smiley

The 40's were very good for the CCF in those areas, I suppose. The Quebec provincial CCF won the only seat of their history in 1940, in Rouyn-Noranda, which isn't so far of North Bay.

Note: The provincial TB-Akitokan will come after I finished the (probably all orange, so boring) map of the other Abitibi riding. Sorry to inflige you that, but I love my region.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2011, 11:50:32 PM »

Scarborough-Rouge River and Davenport weren't looking than they would go to the NPD 5 years later.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #7 on: July 20, 2011, 09:53:28 PM »



To see the 2008 result map: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2545_12_07_09_5_20_03.png

So, for people not knowing the area, La Sarre/Macamic/Parmarolle is in the north-west, Amos is the black blob in the north-east, Barraute is south-west of the lonely Bloc precinct, Rouyn-Noranda is the gigantic blob in the middle of the map. Notre-Dame-du-Nord/Ville-Marie/Laverlochère is in the southern half of the riding, on the Ontario border. Timiskaming Shores is on the other side of the boundary. Témiscaming is the black dot near the south of the boundary, surrounded by weird-looking precincts. It is 20-25 minutes away from North Bay.

Liberals and Conservatives didn't even come close of winning a precinct.

Bloc won three precincts. One in Landrienne (a farming village near Amos). Their mayor is very involved in the national debate, on the independance side and often appear in regional independantist political events with the Bloc MPs and the PQ MNA. The two others are in Rouyn-Noranda in middle-class areas. The tied precinct is the economically dead village of Rochebeaucourt, which is so bad than the church was closed. Wood-cutting doesn't bring money anymore and the farming land has a very low quality.

Strangely, NDP is stronger in rural and suburban areas than in cities, which doesn't make sense to me. Regional politics were explained in saying than rural areas were more independantist than cities. But, it seems reversed for now. The only explanation I see is than other parties (Liberal and Conservative) are in much better shape in cities than in rural areas (in this riding Liberal+Conservative was often around or below 10%).
A better idea?

Strong NDP results are often easy to explain. All 70% NDP precincts are Indian reservations and the good results in the north-west of the riding can be explaining by the NDP candidate coming from a village in that area. Weak NDP in the far north of the rding can be explaining because those towns are in Baie-James municipality and are, like the rest of the area, strongly independantist.

So, next, I'll do the provincial TB-Atikolan (probably bad spelling) map than Earl asked, then a map than someone asked me, then requests or undone maps of the Hashemite list (if we didn't finished by then, we are in fire today, apparently!).
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MaxQue
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« Reply #8 on: July 20, 2011, 10:48:50 PM »

The NDP does more poorly in Northern Ontario cities as well (compared to rural areas), so maybe that has something to do with it.

Then, rural areas are more-left wing than urban areas?

Strange. The only place where I know this pattern is Southern France. Cities voted for the right, while rural areas were left-wing strongholds.

Hashemite, could the same reasons could explain Northern Ontario?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2011, 10:54:42 PM »

I spoke to Dan Harris (we go way back to our days in ONDY, was elected in Scarborough SW) at the NDP platform launch it must have been April 10thish, anyway at that point he was confident he could win... but SSW had no incumbant and a scandal around the tory candidate... plus this was Dan's i believe 8th run at office.

there are some great maps being show over on Rabble if anyone wants too look, they don't define the poll border (which i hate) but give some great pictures... Shilly's maps are better

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/electoral-maps-2011-federal-election-poll-poll-results


I just noticed this now... that guy must have some sort of program. The maps aren't that clear, but he sure has us beat. *sigh*. He's got pretty much the whole country covered by now.

Clear maps are better, so, let's continue.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2011, 11:55:41 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2011, 11:57:24 PM by Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation »

Well, the 40% NDP areas in Témiscamingue are farmland, while the rest isn't farmland. It is forestry/tourism/places for having cottages.

And if I remember well, doesn't Kirking (sp?) Lake is a NDP stronghold? It was clearly not farmland, when I went there years ago because my grandfather was hospitalised there? It seemed an industrial town?

But, that doesn't solve the question. Val-d'Or and Rouyn-Noranda are also mining and industrial cities. Clearly not farmland. (If someone ever went to Rouyn-Noranda, it would see than it is a ridiculous idea, it is impossible to have a farm there, the city in build on rock, not earth. Terrifying during thunderstorms, noise in awful.)

Edit: I forgot than there is a lot of public servants in Rouyn-Noranda.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2011, 04:46:33 PM »
« Edited: July 26, 2011, 05:08:29 PM by Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation »

Well, in the last provincial poll (March) NDP was having 11%. 62% for the Liberals, 25% for PC and 2% for the Greens.

Oops: Forgot to quote, that is PEI poll.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2011, 05:09:22 PM »


The poll above is for PEI.
Quebec has no fixed elections law, so, the election is at the will of Jean Charest.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2011, 04:37:11 PM »

It's not unprecedented in Europe (or Hazleton PA) for working-class urban whites who live in neighbourhoods with a lot of immigrant "outsiders" to be more attached to nationalist politics than those in more homogeneous areas. The map of Montreal seems to be consistent with this.

Well, do you consider than Anglophones are "immigrant outsiders" in your theory?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2011, 05:04:39 AM »

Following a request I received: Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.

Link to the 2008 map: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2545_08_08_09_8_00_09.png

2011 map:


(as usual, the normal size version is avaliable in the gallery or by right click, copy the addressof the picture and paste it in the address field.)

So, patterns are very strange. Conservatives gained many Liberal precincts, but Liberals also gained a couple of Conservative precincts. There is more 30% results than in 2008 because NDP was stronger in 2011. Swing was very not uniform.

Many precincts had almost no change about the Conservative vote share,but there was a Liberal to NDP movement. The liberal candidate came from the Casselman area.

New precincts were roughly draw, to save time.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2011, 06:46:51 PM »


Indeed, I don't think than Conservatives won the city, Liberals the rural areas and NDP nothing.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #16 on: August 04, 2011, 05:20:20 AM »

Yukon 2011.



Sorry for the bad quality of Yukon map, the shape in the file of Geogratis was quite inclined. Putting it upside down cut quality. The round point in SE Yukon represented a very small precinct which wasn't visible from that wide view.

So, the riding is very divided. Some precincts were won barely won 30%.
So, short comment.

Liberal and Conservative support is quite visible on the map.
NDP was strong outside Whitehorse, but performed very bad inside the city.
Green vote is roughly "How far are you of Whitehorse?". The further, the weaker the Green vote is.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2011, 01:31:44 PM »

In Saint-Maurice-Champlain, the NDP won Herouxville, despite the fact their immigration and multicultural policies are about as far away as you can get from the town's position.  This was the infamous town for its policies on immigrants despite having none.

Well, if I remember well, the mayor and the municipal councillor who launched that said than they did it to launch a public debate on immigration and multiculturalism and than they didn't really believed in what they done.

By the way, I think than both retired last municipal elections.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2011, 11:29:56 PM »

Scarborough went Liberal while the NDP won East York, although both were three way races.  So far of the municipalities I have done, Guelph, Kingston, Casselman, and North Bay are the only Liberal wins.  Of the former municipalities of Ottawa, the NDP won Ottawa and Vanier, Liberals Rockcliffe Park, while the Tories won every other one, although they only got over 50% (actually 60% in all these too) in Goulbourn, Osgoode, Rideau, and West Carleton i.e. the largely rural municipalities.  In the former municipality of Hamilton, the NDP won Hamilton, while the Tories got a plurality in Stoney Creek and Dundas and a majority in Ancaster, Glanbrook, and Flamborough.  Actually so far, the Tories have gotten above 40% in almost every municipality outside of Toronto, with only Casselman, Kingston (Frontenac Islands if you don't round up), and Hamilton.  I haven't yet gotten to Windsor which I am sure the NDP won by a fairly sizeable margin. 

Deep River went Liberal too, I think.

Also very interesting that Ottawa went NDP. I think that's a first in history. We've only had one NDP mayor, and probably would have had a 2nd if it weren't for amalgamation.

I would love to see a ward breakdown.

I think I'll wait for you to do all the provinces before I make a national map... but I'd love to see results by municipality in NB (perhaps by parish as well).

I'm not mileslunn, but I can try to do that if you want.
A map (if that even possible? good question) or a list?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2011, 03:31:55 AM »
« Edited: August 08, 2011, 03:43:43 AM by Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation »

Scarborough went Liberal while the NDP won East York, although both were three way races.  So far of the municipalities I have done, Guelph, Kingston, Casselman, and North Bay are the only Liberal wins.  Of the former municipalities of Ottawa, the NDP won Ottawa and Vanier, Liberals Rockcliffe Park, while the Tories won every other one, although they only got over 50% (actually 60% in all these too) in Goulbourn, Osgoode, Rideau, and West Carleton i.e. the largely rural municipalities.  In the former municipality of Hamilton, the NDP won Hamilton, while the Tories got a plurality in Stoney Creek and Dundas and a majority in Ancaster, Glanbrook, and Flamborough.  Actually so far, the Tories have gotten above 40% in almost every municipality outside of Toronto, with only Casselman, Kingston (Frontenac Islands if you don't round up), and Hamilton.  I haven't yet gotten to Windsor which I am sure the NDP won by a fairly sizeable margin.  

Deep River went Liberal too, I think.

Also very interesting that Ottawa went NDP. I think that's a first in history. We've only had one NDP mayor, and probably would have had a 2nd if it weren't for amalgamation.

I would love to see a ward breakdown.

I think I'll wait for you to do all the provinces before I make a national map... but I'd love to see results by municipality in NB (perhaps by parish as well).

From the looks of it, parishes are very possible, municipalities could be a lot harder (precincts borders don't follow them at some places.)

Well, that is supposing than I understand well.
Parishes are outdated but sane divisions used to draw precincts.
Municipalities/LSD are the current divisions, but precincts sometimes don't follow them.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2011, 09:37:42 PM »

Parishes are still used by Stats Can and Elections Canada.

It depends of the county.
They use them for Madawaska County, but they use LDSs for Restigouche County.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2011, 11:40:30 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2011, 06:19:50 PM by Sibboleth »

Parishes are still used by Stats Can and Elections Canada.

It depends of the county.
They use them for Madawaska County, but they use LDSs for Restigouche County.

I don't think so... proof?

Well, the precincts limits doesn't correspond at all to the parish limits.
Precincts: http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/13005.html
Geographical maps: here (Geosearch) and http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b0/Restigouche_County_NB_-_Addington_Parish.PNG (Wikipedia parish map).

All was working in Madawaska, but, it is beyong strange in Restigouche
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MaxQue
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« Reply #22 on: August 13, 2011, 12:33:57 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2011, 12:36:07 AM by Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation »

Looks like stats can uses Parishes in Restigouche to me! I just clicked on a place there and it has a (P) beside it, meaning parish.

Yes, I know, but Elections Canada didn't. Well, I can skip unclear rural areas and focus on municipalities.

EDIT: Why worrying? I'm not perfect, I'll do what I can.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2011, 11:23:52 PM »

I should note although not too familiar, cottage country in Ontario probably has a huge influx of seasonal residents although I don't believe they can vote in those ridings, I think they have to vote in their home one, but it may give those who live there a false impression of the demographics nonetheless.

When I was in the university residences, Elections Canada offrred me to vote at home or at university. I suppose it is the same for cottages, no?

With a proof of residence, you can do much.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2011, 12:09:25 AM »

I should add that for municipal elections at least in BC, you can vote in your seasonal place, in fact any municipality you own property in you can vote irrespective of how much time you spend there.  However for provincial and federal, this is not allowed.  Part of it, is for federal and provincial, you pay income taxes, whereas municipally you pay property taxes so there is a certain logic of allowing one to vote where they have a seasonal residence as opposed to provincially and federally.

Also, there is a risk of voting two times for provincial and federal elections. There is no problem with double voting in municipal elections. If you live in two different towns, you have a right to be represented in both towns.

In Quebec if I remember well, you have to live in the city since at least 6 months or be the owner of a building since at least 12 months (including businesses). If a building has multiple owners and than they all live outsite the city, if they decide to vote, they must choose which one of themselves will vote.

So, for a seasonal place, only the owner of the building can vote.
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