2011 Canadian election maps
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lilTommy
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« Reply #50 on: July 20, 2011, 08:37:57 AM »

Tamil candidate as well, also an open seat. But still amazing.

Scarborough-Rouge River and Davenport weren't looking than they would go to the NPD 5 years later.

Bit of an understatement regarding Scarborough-Rouge River, which was one of the safest seats for any party and looked totally impregnable.

Looks like the NDP noticed they did a masterful job with the nomination of Rathika (current MP), they Nominated Neethan Shan, another Tamil who previously ran in October for City Council... this wouldn't have been a huge target before May; now its on the NDP's radar
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EarlAW
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« Reply #51 on: July 20, 2011, 10:26:34 AM »

Did Jack even visit the riding much? It was not on anyone's radar in the pundit world. If Andrea visits the riding, we'll know we have a shot.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #52 on: July 20, 2011, 10:39:05 AM »

Did Jack even visit the riding much? It was not on anyone's radar in the pundit world. If Andrea visits the riding, we'll know we have a shot.

I don't think he visited that riding specifically, i think he did show up in scarborough though? (someone can correct me here) i know they had events in most of the ridings on the west side the NDP won.
Like Bramelea-Gore-Malton (wasn't won but a strong surprising second!), Scar. RR was a pleasant surprise and i expect Andrea to show up in both ridings... since the same candidate that ran federally, Jameet Singh (sikh lawyer) is running again in BGM. And Neethan has more name recognition from past campaigns.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #53 on: July 20, 2011, 10:44:46 AM »

Jack was in Guildwood on the last leg of the campaign, I know that for sure. And I remember him in Brampton and being surprised at the huge turnout there.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #54 on: July 20, 2011, 10:52:39 AM »

Sorry to break the gloating, but returning this thread to its original intent. Here's Ottawa-Orleans.



The NDP actually won a poll! They had come close in that one in 2008. It includes a bunch of sketchy social housing in Blackburn Hamlet (which is pretty much a sh**thole).

Aside from that, little change aside from Liberal gains in Hiawatha Park (north of the 417) and Tory gains in high-growth Avalon. My own poll voted Liberal by a 10-pt margin or so.

I should have a fun riding this afternoon.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #55 on: July 20, 2011, 12:09:45 PM »

ha. The NDP winning a poll in that riding is hilarious. We never run a serious campaign there. I'll have to do a google street view of that poll to check it out.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #56 on: July 20, 2011, 12:24:33 PM »

ha. The NDP winning a poll in that riding is hilarious. We never run a serious campaign there. I'll have to do a google street view of that poll to check it out.

It's a bunch of small, poor, sketchy social housing. I think it's also quite ethnically diverse. It's not a place to take a field trip to.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #57 on: July 20, 2011, 12:29:11 PM »

ha. The NDP winning a poll in that riding is hilarious. We never run a serious campaign there. I'll have to do a google street view of that poll to check it out.

It's a bunch of small, poor, sketchy social housing. I think it's also quite ethnically diverse. It's not a place to take a field trip to.

Similar areas voted NDP in Ottawa South as well. Although, I wouldn't use the term "sketchy". I'm fairly comfortable walking into social housing projects.  Although perhaps the one in BH is especially bad?
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DL
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« Reply #58 on: July 20, 2011, 12:42:39 PM »

Did Jack even visit the riding much? It was not on anyone's radar in the pundit world. If Andrea visits the riding, we'll know we have a shot.

Actually, the last event of the 2011 NDP leader's tour was in Scarborough Rouge River. As you may recall, that final Sunday May 1 was a bit of a whistlestop down the 401 to Kingston, then Oshawa and then late at night on election eve Jack spoke at a mammoth rally in Rouge River with something like 1,000 people. I think they got word that it was looking very good in the home stretch!
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mileslunn
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« Reply #59 on: July 20, 2011, 12:58:47 PM »

Greetings from Nuremburg, Germany.  I haven't responded on anything as I have been out of the country since July 1st.  Most nights I am out enjoying the nice weather but the weather has been quite crappy here otherwise rain and only 15C, not the extreme heat you guys are having.  Anyways I will start working on the maps when I get home this weekend.  Probably on Sunday as I will be too jet lagged on Saturday.  Below are my comments on the map so far.  Please keep your replys to this.  If you want more information of my European trip send me a private message.

1.  Etobicoke-Lakeshore:  Surprised how few polls Ignatieff won.  Looks like the Liberal vote was pretty evenly distributed while it appears in the wealthier areas, the Tories got close to 50% and NDP in the single digits while in the more working class areas it was a three way split. 

2.  Nipissing-Timiskaming.  It appears it was North Bay that kept this riding close whereas the rest of the riding sort of resembled the North/South divide.  The Southern parts went Tory much like the neighbouring ridings and the Northern parts the NDP did better like elsewhere in Northern Ontario.  As for the NDP weakness in North Bay, it is sort of borderline Northern Ontario and usually the Tories tend to do better in these areas and NDP weaker. 

3.  Toronto:  I remember seeing a map in the Toronto Star not too long ago showing the wealthy neighbourhoods mostly near Yonge Street and the poorer largely immigrant ones in the Northwest and Northeast.  It appears much of the Tory strength was not in the heavily ethnic ridings, but rather the affluent ones.  I wonder if their policy on tax cuts vs. that of other parties played a role here.  The NDP has a long stretch of support but still weak in Etobicoke and North York.  While Scarborough asides from Scarborough-Rouge River and the very eastern parts seems like a mish mash of everything mind you most ridings were three way splits.  The Liberals narrowly won Etobicoke yet looking at the map it appears the Tories won far more polls in Etobicoke than the Liberals.  I am guessing in a lot of the wealthy areas, both parties got over 40% thus many were narrow Tory wins despite the darkness of blue, while the Liberals won by bigger margins in the Northern parts.  In Scarborough-Rouge River Jack Layton did in fact visit the riding although near the very end.  Also the NDP won amongst immigrants who had been in Canada less than 10 years while the Tories amongst those who had been in Canada for much longer periods and most in this riding are pretty recent arrivals.  It is not mostly Tamil, in fact it has a large Chinese and Black population.  The one thing about the riding as I believe whites are only 11% which is the lowest of any riding in Canada, so kind of a gage of how well parties do amongst visible minorities.  Up until recently, Scarborough was one of the Liberals strongest areas, even under Dion they got over 50% in Scarborough.  Ironically it was the NDP who rose the most, not the Tories who only went up slightly but won Scarborough Centre due vote splits while Pickering-Scarborough East is more 905 than 416 thus the Tory strength here.

Bramalea-Gore-Malton: It appears many of the Liberal areas swung over to the NDP while the Tories held their previous areas, otherwise the more white areas.  For all the talk of the Tories making a breakthrough amongst ethnic voters, it appears the NDP did too.  Mind you a lot of the heavily immigrant ridings they won we haven't posted the polls for yet.  I will be interested to see Brampton as a whole, Mississauga, and Markham, that will be a better indicator.

Ottawa-Orleans:  Are the Eastern and Southern parts more anglophone than other parts of the riding as historically the Francophone community use to vote heavily Liberal, or is this just because those areas are more suburban/rural and also further from the city centre thus fewer civil servants?

I may respond later if I find an internet cafe in the other cities I stop in.

Auf Wedershen
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lilTommy
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« Reply #60 on: July 20, 2011, 01:02:05 PM »

I spoke to Dan Harris (we go way back to our days in ONDY, was elected in Scarborough SW) at the NDP platform launch it must have been April 10thish, anyway at that point he was confident he could win... but SSW had no incumbant and a scandal around the tory candidate... plus this was Dan's i believe 8th run at office.

there are some great maps being show over on Rabble if anyone wants too look, they don't define the poll border (which i hate) but give some great pictures... Shilly's maps are better

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/electoral-maps-2011-federal-election-poll-poll-results
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Hashemite
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« Reply #61 on: July 20, 2011, 02:14:49 PM »

Interesting stuff in the Toronto maps. Italians in the city remained loyally Liberal, the Portuguese and Spanish went NDP. The Chinese-Cantonese were more likely to vote Liberal on the whole than the other Chinese (except in dwtn Toronto).
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Hashemite
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« Reply #62 on: July 20, 2011, 02:33:12 PM »

Two more cool maps:

Ottawa-Vanier:



NDP swept Sandy Hill and much of Lowertown, and also carried Vanier and Overbrook/those places south of Montreal Rd. Vanier is historically Francophone (but increasingly multicultural) and also rather poor, and historically very much Liberal. The NDP carrying it makes sense but is telling of the Liberal rout. Lots of 3-way or close 2-way Lib-NDP races in a lot of the riding.

The Liberals did do well in Rockcliffe Park (which went Tory in 2006) again. Conservatives won Beacon Hill North (anglo suburb) and Pineview (suburb).

and Westmount:



Westmount vs. NDG/downtown. Obviously.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #63 on: July 20, 2011, 03:07:06 PM »

Holy s**t son. (looks at Ottawa-Vanier). I didn't realize the NDP would win that many polls. Clearly the French vote went overwhelmingly NDP. Too bad the rest of the riding is not very NDP friendly, and I'm sure they party did very poorly in Rockcliffe and Beacon Hill.  I think the party can do a lot better in Sandy Hill and Lower Town. This area was Alex Munter's best area in the 2006 municipal election, making me believe it's Ottawa most left wing neighbourhood.

BTW, my analysis of of the Toronto ridings have begun on my blog. It's pretty time consuming, so I'll release the ridings in stages.
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DL
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« Reply #64 on: July 20, 2011, 04:21:49 PM »

I think Ottawa-Vanier will be very, very high on the NDP target list next time. The NDP came pretty close this time despite not targeting the riding at all and running a bit of a no-name candidate. Demographically it should be an NDP seat. Next time the NDP will probably get someone high profile and make an investment in the riding, Mauril Belanger may quit, and on top of that with Ontario gaining 18 new seats - its likely that some of the less NDP-friendly outer parts of the riding will get lopped off in redistribution.

It will also be interesting to see what happens to a riding like Westmount-Ville Marie with redistribution. Even though the seat allocation for Quebec may not change much - some boundaries will shift and Montreal could lose a seat or two to allow for new seats in burgeoning suburban areas. If Outremont is too small in population compared to Westmount - the downtown NDP part of Westmount-VM could get shifted into Outremont or Laurier-Ste. Marie. Who knows?
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Holmes
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« Reply #65 on: July 20, 2011, 04:42:02 PM »

Hell yeah, York went NDP. Tongue And the science section of the campus (where I live) went NDP in 2006 too. Heh.

Loving the maps! Northern Ontario might be really interesting to do as well... not as much ridings as Toronto by a long shot.
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DL
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« Reply #66 on: July 20, 2011, 04:58:21 PM »

Hell yeah, York went NDP. Tongue And the science section of the campus (where I live) went NDP in 2006 too. Heh.


How many voters are there at York U? Are there big residences or other student housing there?
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Holmes
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« Reply #67 on: July 20, 2011, 05:18:35 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2011, 05:29:03 PM by Holmes »

Hmm. It's very much a commuter school. Not very much people living on campus. There are six undergraduate residences, and a few graduate/older undergraduate apartments. I would say 2000 people living on campus, or 3000 max. But even then, the election was held right after the winter semester ended, so it was substantially less than that, I would imagine.

More students live in The Village though, it's private property located between Assiniboine and Murray Ross. Seems to have went NDP as well. That might be a better indicator of how students vote, since the election was held after the winter semester.

eta: For what it's worth, it doesn't look like the Glendon campus went NDP.
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nickjbor
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« Reply #68 on: July 20, 2011, 05:37:07 PM »

My buildings are official residences and are lumped in with the village, and some condo's down on Finch; it's the only poll in York that voted Liberal apparently.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #69 on: July 20, 2011, 07:12:38 PM »

Er, this is my first map:



The West End goes for the NDP while those who can afford apartments by the shore vote for the Conservatives. Nor do the Greens win a single poll, though that may be an error on my part. Quite a large number of polls were decided by 1 or 2-vote margins. The reason Fry won by 5% was advance polling.

I might make a map of the Lower Mainland.
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Smid
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« Reply #70 on: July 20, 2011, 07:40:06 PM »


Great work!

I might make a map of the Lower Mainland.

I will really be looking forward to seeing this!
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adma
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« Reply #71 on: July 20, 2011, 08:22:39 PM »

eta: For what it's worth, it doesn't look like the Glendon campus went NDP.

Which is more a measure of the seat it's in (Don Valley West, where the NDP ran a de facto paper candidate) than anything.
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adma
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« Reply #72 on: July 20, 2011, 08:25:16 PM »

I spoke to Dan Harris (we go way back to our days in ONDY, was elected in Scarborough SW) at the NDP platform launch it must have been April 10thish, anyway at that point he was confident he could win... but SSW had no incumbant and a scandal around the tory candidate... plus this was Dan's i believe 8th run at office.

SSW *did* have an incumbent: Liberal Michelle Simson (who came third).  But SRR *didn't*; which surely factors into Rathika's win.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #73 on: July 20, 2011, 08:30:21 PM »

Er, this is my first map:



The West End goes for the NDP while those who can afford apartments by the shore vote for the Conservatives. Nor do the Greens win a single poll, though that may be an error on my part. Quite a large number of polls were decided by 1 or 2-vote margins. The reason Fry won by 5% was advance polling.

I might make a map of the Lower Mainland.

This map appears to be consistent to the Vancouver mayoral race that I am/was working on, but have temporarily abandoned.

But, I did make this city council map:



There is that right wing area on the north side of Downtown, and on the south side on False Creek. (I think it's Granville Island or something)
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MaxQue
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« Reply #74 on: July 20, 2011, 09:53:28 PM »



To see the 2008 result map: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2545_12_07_09_5_20_03.png

So, for people not knowing the area, La Sarre/Macamic/Parmarolle is in the north-west, Amos is the black blob in the north-east, Barraute is south-west of the lonely Bloc precinct, Rouyn-Noranda is the gigantic blob in the middle of the map. Notre-Dame-du-Nord/Ville-Marie/Laverlochère is in the southern half of the riding, on the Ontario border. Timiskaming Shores is on the other side of the boundary. Témiscaming is the black dot near the south of the boundary, surrounded by weird-looking precincts. It is 20-25 minutes away from North Bay.

Liberals and Conservatives didn't even come close of winning a precinct.

Bloc won three precincts. One in Landrienne (a farming village near Amos). Their mayor is very involved in the national debate, on the independance side and often appear in regional independantist political events with the Bloc MPs and the PQ MNA. The two others are in Rouyn-Noranda in middle-class areas. The tied precinct is the economically dead village of Rochebeaucourt, which is so bad than the church was closed. Wood-cutting doesn't bring money anymore and the farming land has a very low quality.

Strangely, NDP is stronger in rural and suburban areas than in cities, which doesn't make sense to me. Regional politics were explained in saying than rural areas were more independantist than cities. But, it seems reversed for now. The only explanation I see is than other parties (Liberal and Conservative) are in much better shape in cities than in rural areas (in this riding Liberal+Conservative was often around or below 10%).
A better idea?

Strong NDP results are often easy to explain. All 70% NDP precincts are Indian reservations and the good results in the north-west of the riding can be explaining by the NDP candidate coming from a village in that area. Weak NDP in the far north of the rding can be explaining because those towns are in Baie-James municipality and are, like the rest of the area, strongly independantist.

So, next, I'll do the provincial TB-Atikolan (probably bad spelling) map than Earl asked, then a map than someone asked me, then requests or undone maps of the Hashemite list (if we didn't finished by then, we are in fire today, apparently!).
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