2011 Canadian election maps

[Hatman 🍁]

Weird thing I just noticed:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calgary_Northeast

How the hell did the Liberals get their best result since 1993??!! Won a fair number of polls - all in new suburban areas!

Calgary is becoming more and more Liberal. We are only 2 or 3 elections away before the Liberals win a seat here, and, are then able to hold on to it.

Calgary is becoming more left wing. Look who their mayor is.

[Hatman 🍁]

Someone posted an invitation to this forum on rabble, and I think I have a new favourite website.  As I've often told my long-suffering wife: I don't smoke, drink, gamble or chase women; I just like to make election maps.

My background is in Statistics and GIS, and I have worked at Elections Ontario and for two provincial electoral boundaries commissions.  I have also helped create maps for CTV and the Toronto Star.

This is what I like to do for fun.  I've been waiting for Elections Canada to release their digital boundary files and poll-by-poll results like a kid on Christmas Eve.  In addition to the last four federal elections, I have also created colour-coded poll maps for all recent provincial elections except PEI, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Saskatchewan (and I'm working on that one).

Thanks for your comments about the maps that I've posted on rabble.  I agree that the riding boundaries need to be fixed, and I'll try making a set of non-pdf maps with poll boundaries instead of the StatsCan street network file.  Here's a sample (Toronto Centre):

(I just got an error that newbies can't post links.  You'll have to replace the ampersands with slashes, and copy and paste this into a web browser  --  https:&&sites.google.com&site&krago123&maps&TorontoCentre.png  )

Thanks for the invite, and keep cool!

Hello Krago, that was I who invited you (under an alter alias). But anyways, welcome to the forum. I've been trying to organize Canadian election maps on my blog (see my signature).  I eventually want to make a Canadian version of this site.

Do you have a website of some sort?

You're incredibly lucky to have worked for Elections Ontario and to have helped with CTV and the Star. That's the kind of thing I would to do someday.

Anyways, welcome. Your maps are excellent. I thought we had the world beat with getting our election maps out, but we have a little competition.

Anyways, I hope you post some of your analysis, I think we can all learn something from what you know.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, I guess this is your site: https://sites.google.com/site/krago123/

Very nice! I shall add a link from my blog.

[Hatman 🍁]

Very nice! I shall add a link from my blog.

Sorry, Hatman, but the 'website' is actually just a File Cabinet that I use to store my maps so I can link to them on the web.  I didn't realize that anyone could access them!

Once I get a 'real' website going, I'll definitely send you the link.  Thanks.

Oh ok. I noticed you had some Manitoba provincial maps in there. Do you have the whole province? I'd like to see how some of the new ridings had voted.

[Hatman 🍁]

Very good stuff, Foucaulf, but is there a reason why you didn't include Vancouver Kingsway?

The Conservative map is interesting, I wonder what's with the pink/red areas in Vancouver Centre?

[Hatman 🍁]

Considering how many condos there are in Vancouver Centre, I'm surprised that the NDP manages to even do reasonably well.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the Democrats were split into 2 parties, you would then see the GOP winning more urban precincts. I'm sure Seattle has condos... those people tend to not be socialists.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh ok. I noticed you had some Manitoba provincial maps in there. Do you have the whole province? I'd like to see how some of the new ridings had voted.

Here is a map of Winnipeg showing the new riding boundaries overlaid on the poll-by-poll results from the 2007 provincial election: sites.google.com/site/krago124/maps/Winnipeg2007.png

Are there any other areas you're interested in?

You wouldn't happen to have the transposition of votes, would you?

[Hatman 🍁]

Also wonder why the Liberals did so well amongst university students?  Guelph and Kingston both went Liberal, the few Liberal polls in London were near UWO and it looks like in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale the only Liberal polls were around McMaster.  I would have thought that students are more likely to go NDP than Liberal especially considering the NDP had a better chance of defeating the Tories than the Liberals.  Any ideas on why this happened?  Did the Liberal education passport have any impact?

Depends on the university. I guess at UGuelph and at Queen's, the students thought that the Liberals had a better chance of winning.

[Hatman 🍁]

...and they had.

And York, UofT, UofWindsor, UofOttawa all went NDP (i believe?)... so i think it all is dependent on who on the "left" who can defeat a tory.

Or to defeat the Liberal, as some of those cases were. Carleton (my alma matter) also went NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

How about some urban/rural ridings...

Peterborough
Chatham-Kent-Essex
Prince Edward-Hastings (i believe thats belleville)
Brant

Oh and Kingston... curious about that one

He has some of Brant here: https://7686778538406164426-a-1802744773732722657-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/krago123/maps/HamiltonBB_Fed2011PD_Map.pdf?attachauth=ANoY7cokxYc3KN757rcPEYbu3WTd1hCKQj9TPjoLWTFXrp1G6h182T4-89-Qz95kWIIHY1SyL-X0-BkGFnH09ntUkYXmWMEDK_F30XgLkOhvk6tqeV4uBqK0DyoAOJCZeLg_d08HYRb399C-EszBydRWzKWMgJnANcoAvQ7gziO-4O5bhcmeJ0kMI2X7BNg3Dc8EXCKa-KDJTZ06Eq9hFxMjj8pGMiE5ig%3D%3D&attredirects=0

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont know why the bother with riding spanning the divide. Doesn't make any sense.

[Hatman 🍁]

What's the dipper area in Kingston like? Also, what's the town just outside the riding to the west?

That town is Amherstview. I'm surprised it's not more Tory, as that area is Loyalist country (it's literally in Loyalist Twp).

[Hatman 🍁]

Looking back at the Lower Mainland map, it seems that there were several Green polls around Downtown Vancouver. What sort of candidate did the Greens have?

The former leader of the BC Green Party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ahh, that's what happened.

[Hatman 🍁]

Labrador is interesting. Looks like the NDP could win Labrador West in the provincial election

[Hatman 🍁]

This is really good stuff. I think the way you've done it will make all of our live's easier.

[Hatman 🍁]

Labrador is interesting. Looks like the NDP could win Labrador West in the provincial election

Well, they did hold it before, but when the MHA in question is now in jail for corruption, I'm not sure how much of a sign that is.

Well, it was the 2nd best NDP riding in the 2007 election, so it's certainly one to watch.

I also checked out your Charlottetown map. Very interesting. Again, could mean something in the provincial election- but probably not. (NDP won the Downtown part of the city)

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm, that poll in Sydney had me thinking. We should try and compile all the polling irregularities we can find. From the look of that % change, it is clear that the NDP and the Greens were swapped.

[Hatman 🍁]

Great thread to return to after a little while away from the forum (even though I seemed to have missed krago's maps). That Toronto map is really really interesting.

Perhaps the most surprising thing so far is the sharpness of the line between Vancouver South and Kingsway, which isn't that sharp of a divide either ethnically or economically, and doesn't have a straightforward strategic explanation. Just evidence of the impact of whether a party bothers to really contest a riding with a local GOTV effort, I guess.

Left wing people vote Liberal in Vancouver South. Provincially, the area is Liberal as well. You can see the mayoral race here: http://bc2009.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/2008-vanmunielections-2009-boundaries.gif which shows more of a gradual shift in the right vs left vote. (i'm in the process of making my own version of that map for my blog, among the many projects I have on the go)

[Hatman 🍁]

Great thread to return to after a little while away from the forum (even though I seemed to have missed krago's maps). That Toronto map is really really interesting.

Perhaps the most surprising thing so far is the sharpness of the line between Vancouver South and Kingsway, which isn't that sharp of a divide either ethnically or economically, and doesn't have a straightforward strategic explanation. Just evidence of the impact of whether a party bothers to really contest a riding with a local GOTV effort, I guess.

Krago has not been seen since a moderator edited a black man's penis into someone's sig. I'm not sure he'll ever be back.

Did he comment on that?

I've noticed he's posted some on rabble again.

[Hatman 🍁]

Welcome back, Krago. Some great stuff there. I can definitely gerrymander a third NDP riding into Essex Oh, and the Gaspesie riding is missing the Magdalen Islands.

[Hatman 🍁]

Good stuff! Keep em coming.

[Hatman 🍁]

oooh. Interesting that the Liberals won Deep River, and not Clouthier. Clouthier won only three polls. It also looks like Guergis didn't win any polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

In Saint-Maurice-Champlain, the NDP won Herouxville, despite the fact their immigration and multicultural policies are about as far away as you can get from the town's position.  This was the infamous town for its policies on immigrants despite having none.

Well, if I remember well, the mayor and the municipal councillor who launched that said than they did it to launch a public debate on immigration and multiculturalism and than they didn't really believed in what they done.

By the way, I think than both retired last municipal elections.

Also, the xenophobia in Quebec is a left wing xenophobia, much like the type found in the Netherlands. You know, "Muslims are anti-women, anti-gay, etc, therefore they should eb banned" kind of thing.