2011 Canadian election maps

[mileslunn]

Ah, but why assume that everyone in a given place has a similar set of views and values? Especially in a place like that.

  If you are referring to Whistler, I used to have a cabin there as a kid.  I am originally from British Columbia, so I do have some idea of the demographics there, mind you there are lot of weekend only residents as well as you have many seasonal residents who only live there part of the year rather than year round, thus the time of year the election is held might have some impact too.

[mileslunn]

In the Lower Mainland, the Liberals won two municipalities (University Endowment Lands and Bowen Island).  Bowen Island despite its rural nature is rather left leaning.  Sort of like Bainbridge Island is to Seattle in some ways.  The NDP won Vancouver, Burnaby, and New Westminster, while every other municipality went Conservative in the GVRD.

[mileslunn]

The NDP did win Tecumseh, although not by a whole lot, so I suspect imcumbency probably had some impact in Essex County as the demographics of Tecumseh I don't think are all that much more favourable to the NDP than some of the other Essex municipalities.  Windsor off course went NDP in a landslide, in fact using the present municipalities, I believe it was the only municipality in Southern Ontario where they cracked the 50% mark.  The Liberals on the other hand using the current municipalities failed to crack the 40% mark in any if I am not mistaken, although I have to double check.

[mileslunn]

The NDP won Ahuntsic and ironically, the Liberals won Yukon if you took e-day polls only.  Asides from those four, not sure of any others, although I might have missed a few.  I only checked the really close ridings.

[mileslunn]

Here is Nova Scotia by county.  I only did the US style and the winner as asides from the two counties the Tories got over 50% in, the winner in every county got in the 40s and no party got over 60% in any county.



And here is the US style map with the two counties the Tories got over 50% in being shown in red.

[mileslunn]

Churchill River is extremely polarized. Polls in the north at 90%+ for the NDP, while in the south were 90%+ for the Tories.

  Almost like the Deep South in the US in some ways.  There you have areas that go 90%+ Republican which are usually areas that are overwhelmingly white and areas that go 90%+ Democrat which are usually overwhelmingly African-American.  Looks like this one was somewhat racially polarized being Aboriginal heavily NDP and White heavily Conservative.  Is this more a coincidence or is there a strong racial divide in this part of Saskatchewan.

[mileslunn]

506, you are awesome!

Miles - it may not necessarily be racially driven, just that like many other areas, the First Nations population votes NDP, and like in many other areas, the (white) rural areas vote Conservative. It may be demographic without being racial, if you follow my drift.

EDIT: Actually, I seem to recall (possibly Earl?) mentioning that the NDP had selected a strong candidate who was a tribal leader or something for that seat?

  Don't disagree, just pointing out the similiarities albeit the reasons are probably quite different though.

[mileslunn]

Here is Ontario by county.  The Liberals only won Nipissing District and Toronto, while the NDP dominated Northern Ontario, but only won Hamilton and Essex County in Southern Ontario.  By contrast Southern Ontario was mostly Conservative while in the North they only won Kenora District (or you could include Muskoka and Parry Sound Districts if you count them as Northern Ontario)



Here is the US style again.  The Conservatives got in the 30s in Frontenac County, 40s in Kenora District, Ottawa, Prescott & Russell United Counties, Peel Regional Municipality, Brant County, Haldimand County (rounded up to 50% if rounded off), Wellington County, Waterloo Regional Municipality, and Middlesex County,  They only got over 60% in Lanark County, Stormont, Dundas, & Glengarry United Counties, Leeds and Grenville United Counties, and Kawartha Lakes, so many counties in the 50s.  The NDP got in the 30s in Hamilton, while they got over 50% in only in Cochrane District, Greater Sudbury, and Rainy River District.  The others they won they got in the 40s.  The Liberals failed to get above 36% in any of the counties.

[mileslunn]

Here is Ontario by municipality.  Since this map didn't show all of Nipissing District I left it out although I will give the figures in a later post.  The NDP in Southern Ontario only won Hamilton, Thorold, Welland, Port Colborne, Tecumseh, and Windsor.  The Liberals only won Deep River, Casselman, Kingston, Toronto, and Guelph.  Only in Windsor did the NDP crack the 50% mark while the Liberals in none.  The Tories got above 30% in every municipality using the present boundaries and even pre-amalgmation, Toronto, East York, York, Ottawa, and Vanier were the only ones they failed to crack the 30% mark.  Likewise in Nipissing District, West Nipissing was the only municipality where they got under 30%.

[mileslunn]

Not very clear in terms of colours on my machine so I will just do a colour coded based on winner and US style map.  In the case of Helena Guergis' riding, her vote + the Tories exceeded 50% in every municipality, but it did not exceed 70% in any of them.  Below is the data on winners and which bracket they were in.  I also included the Nipissing District.  I will do separate ones for Toronto, Hamilton, and Ottawa pre-amalgmation.

Tories over 70%

Oil Springs, The Archipelago, North Dundas, South Dundas

Tories in the 60s

Amaranth, East Garafraxa, East Luther-Grand Valley, Aylmer, Bayham, Malahide, Halton Hills, Carlow/Mayo, Tudor & Cashel, South Huron, Beckwith, Carleton Place, Drummond/North Elmsley, Lanark Highlands, Montague, Edwardsburgh/Cardinal , North Grenville, Addington Highlands, Georgian Bay, Osgoode, East Zorra-Tavistock, Norwich, North Perth, Brundell, Lyndoch & Raglan, North Stormont, South Stormont, Erin, Mapleton, Puslinch, East Gwilimbury, Brock, Southwold, North Frontenac, Chatsworth, Georgian Bluffs, Southgate, Bancroft, Centre Hastings, Faraday, Hastings Highlands, Madoc, Stirling-Rawdon, Wollaston, Bluewater, Central Huron, Kawartha Lakes, Enniskillen, Plympton-Wyoming, Warwick, Mississippi Mills, Smiths Falls, Tay Valley, Athens, Augusta, Elizabethtown-Kiteley, Prescott, Rideau Lakes, Westport, Adelaide-Metcalfe, Lucan-Biddulph, Middlesex Centre, North Middlesex, Thames Centre, Lincoln, West Lincoln, Blandford-Blenheim, Southwest Oxford, Tilsonburg, Zorra, McKellar, McDougall, Perry Ryerson, South River, Strong, Whitestone, Havelock-Belmont-Metheun, North Kawartha, Otonabee-South Monaghan, Greater Madawaska, Horton, McNab/Braeside, Bradford-West Gwilimbury, Innisfil, Oro-Medonte, Ramara, Severn, North Dumfries, Wellesley, Woolwich, Centre Wellington, Guelph/Eramosa, Wellington North, Georgina, King

Tories in the 50s

Brant, Arran-Elderslie, Northern Bruce Peninsula, South Bruce Peninsula, Melancthon, Mono, Orangeville, Shelburne, Scugog, Uxbridge, Whitby, Central Elgin, Dutton/Dunwich, Leamington, Central Frontenac, Grey Highlands, Hanover, West Grey, Dysart et Al, Highlands East, Minden Hills, Burlington, Milton, Mamora & Lake, Quinte West, Ashfield-Colborne-Wawanosh, Howick, Huron East, Morris-Turnberry, North Huron, Dawn-Euphemia, Lambton Shores, Petrolia, St. Clair, Perth, Brockville, Front of Yonge, Gananoque, Leeds & Thousands Islands, Merrickville-Wolford, Strathroy-Caradoc, Gravenhurst, Huntsville, Muskoka Lakes, Grimsby, Niagara on the Lake, Pelham, Wainfleet, South Algonquin, Alnwick/Haldimand, Brighton, Carling, Joly, Machar, Magnetewan, Seguin, Sundridge, Caledon, Perth East, Perth South, St. Mary’s, West Perth, Asphodel-Norwood, Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan, Duoro-Dummer, Galway-Cavendish-Harvey, Smith-Ennismore-Lakefield, Adamaston/Bromley, Arnprior, Bonnecherre Valley, Madawaska Valley, North Algona-Wilberforce, Renfrew, Whitewater Region, Barrie, Springwater, North Glengarry, South Glengarry, Wimot, Minto, Vaughan, Whitchurch-Stouffville, Brockton, Huron-Kinloss, South Bruce, Chatham-Kent, Mulmur, Clarington, Oshawa, St. Thomas, West Elgin, Kingsville, Meaford, Haldimand, Algonquin Highlands, Oakville, Limerick, Tweed, Tyendinaga, Goderich, Brooke-Alvinston, Point Edward, Greater Nepanee, Newbury, Southwest Middlesex, Bracebridge, Lake of the Bays, Fort Erie, Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, Calvin, Norfolk, Cobourg, Cramahe, Hamilton, Port Hope, Trent Hills, Ingersoll, Woodstock, Armour, Kearney, McMurritch/Monteith, Nipissing, Parry Sound, Parry Sound Unorganized, Powassan, Champlain, East Hawkesbury, Russell, Prince Edward, Killaloe, Hagarty & Richards, Laurentian Valley, Petawawa, Adjala-Tosorontio, Essa, New Tecumseth, Orillia, Tay, Cornwall, Cambridge, Aurora, Newmarket

[mileslunn]

Here is the remainder of the data.

Tories in the 40s

Brantford, Kincardine, Saugeen Shores, Amherstburg, Essex, Lakeshore, LaSalle, Pelee Island, South Frontenac, Owen Sound, Belleville, Desoronto, Sarnia, Loyalist, Stone Mills, Papineau-Cameron, Burk’s Falls, Peterborough, Clarence-Rockland, The Nation, Head, Clara & Maria, Laurentian Hills, Clearview, Midland, Tiny, Wasaga Beach, Richmond Hill, Ajax, Pickering, Frontenac Islands, Blue Mountains, London, Chisholm, Temigami, Ottawa, Callander, Brampton, Mississauga, Stratford, Alfred & Plantaganet, Hawkesbury, Pembroke, Collingwood, Penetanguishene,  Kitchener, Waterloo, Markham

Tories in the 30s

East Ferries, Nipissing Unorganized, Mattawa, and Bonfield

NDP over 50%

Windsor


NDP in the 40s

West Nipissing, Tecumseh, Thorold, Welland, and Port Colborne

NDP in the 30s

Hamilton

Liberals in the 40s

North Bay, Guelph, and Casselman

Liberals in the 30s

Deep River, Kingston, and Toronto

[mileslunn]

Here is Southern Ontario using the US style maps.  You can see in much of the province the Tories got over 50% despite averaging only 44% province wide (although it was 45% in Southern Ontario and 47% when you exclude the 416 area code).  Also shows how urbanized it is as if the rural to urban split population wise was more even, the Tories probably would have gotten over 50% province wide with such a map.

[mileslunn]

Here is Hamilton 2011

The NDP got over 50% in the old city while the Tories got in the 40s in Stoney Creek and Dundas, 50s in Glanbrook and Ancaster and 60s in Flamborough



In the case of Ottawa, the Liberals got in the 40s in Rockcliffe Park, NDP in 30s in Vanier and Ottawa, while the Tories got in the 40s in most of the suburbs (Cumberland, Gloucester, Kanata, and Nepean) while 60s in the rural sections (Goulborn, Osgoode, Rideau, and West Carleton)



While for Toronto it was Tories in the 40s in North York, Liberals in the 30s in Etobicoke and Scarborough, NDP in 40s in Toronto (Old City) while NDP in 30s in York and East York.  Interestingly enough the Liberals were the only party to get above 30% in all of the former municipalities but none over 40%.  Otherwise their vote was far more evenly spread out than the NDP or Conservatives meaning a slight uptick in the GTA could result in a whole wack of new seats at the same time they can get wiped out much easier than the other two parties.  I don't have the boundaries in front of me, but I will try to find them and do a map.

[mileslunn]

Surprised the Liberals won Nipissing. I thought that part of the riding was more Conservative.

  Nipissing-Timiskaming also includes three municipalities in Parry Sound District which off course the Conservatives handidly won, the Tories also come out ahead in the Timiskaming portion of Nipissing-Timiskaming although the NDP won the district as a whole.  It was really close and it was really North Bay which I think has over the half the population vs. the rest of the district as North Bay was the only municipality the Liberals won in the Nipissing District. 

[mileslunn]

Looking at how poorly the Liberals did in the neighbouring ridings, I suspect a good chunk of the Liberal vote in Nipissing-Timiskaming were personal Anthony Rota votes, not genuine Liberal votes.  I suspect had he not run, the Liberals would have come in third.

[mileslunn]

As promised here is Toronto.



Tories in the North, Liberals on the East and West and NDP in the middle part.  In reality Scarborough and Etobicoke were quite different in results as Scarborough was a three way race while Etobicoke was a two way race.  Etobicoke is a lot wealthier than Scarborough and not nearly as culturally diverse thus more conservative of the two.  Provincially, I expect Scarborough will stay Liberal although the NDP may do well depending on their numbers while Etobicoke is probably more favourable for a Tory pick up although I wouldn't be shocked either if the Liberals take all three ridings.  I expect the NDP to come in third in all three ridings.  In the case of Scarborough I think the NDP support is a lot softer than it is in the downtown where they have a much firmer base.

[mileslunn]

Looking at how poorly the Liberals did in the neighbouring ridings, I suspect a good chunk of the Liberal vote in Nipissing-Timiskaming were personal Anthony Rota votes, not genuine Liberal votes.  I suspect had he not run, the Liberals would have come in third.

Not sure how accurate that is. North Bay is usually a Liberal town, at least federally.

True, although the Liberals have never performed so poorly.  Also in most neighbouring ridings, they were in the teens, whereas Anthony Rota still got above 25% in almost all municipalities in his riding so I think had he gotten 10% lower in the rural portions the Tories would have won the district.

[mileslunn]

Alberta's up!

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/

Is the area around the Calgary Airport largely South Asian?  I am surprised how well the Liberals did here as having been to Calgary numerous time, Liberal is a like a four letter word there.  I don't think I've meant anybody from Calgary who votes Liberal, whereas I have from Edmonton.

[mileslunn]

506, you are awesome!

Miles - it may not necessarily be racially driven, just that like many other areas, the First Nations population votes NDP, and like in many other areas, the (white) rural areas vote Conservative. It may be demographic without being racial, if you follow my drift.

Seems to me the only way aboriginals ever vote Conservative is if one of their own is the local candidate - see Peter Penashue.

I think that is more the case in the Northern regions.  In the Northern areas people seem to vote more for candidate than for any particular political party.  After NWT and Nunavut don't have political parties in their provincial legislatures.  In Southern Canada, I think the Aboriginals go pretty heavily either NDP or Liberal.  The Metis I am not sure about as I know historically the Liberals did well amongst them but not sure if that is still the case.  I know the Tories have a number of Metis MPs so perhaps that has changed.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, most people who escape Alberta are non Conservatives. If someone tells me they're from Alberta, I know I can safely say "how unfortunate". My girlfriend was born in Edmonton, and she is further to the left than I am.

Edmonton has always been somewhat more left leaning than the rest of the province.  Both the NDP and Liberals have won seats several times provincially and federally.  In fact provincially, both parties have won the majority of seats in Edmonton a few times.  I also know many people in Edmonton who are on the left too.  Calgary however is a totally different story and the same with Rural Alberta.  While there are some on the left in those two places, they tend to keep a low profile.  I heard a story about one couple my parents knew from Calgary who were afraid to talk about the fact they were Liberal due to the negative reactions they would get from everyone. 

Anyways as a side note, using the provincial boundaries, anyone know how many ridings would have been won by the NDP or Liberals?  I am guessing there would be 3 or 4 in Edmonton and maybe one in Calgary and perhaps even one of the two Lethbridge ridings.

[mileslunn]

I believe Edmonton-Mill Creek was one of only three seats in Edmonton that went PC in the 2004 election.  Mind you Gene Zwodesky was first elected as a Liberal in 1997 and then defected to the PCs, so it could be his personal popularity.  I believe Edmonton-Gold Bar use to be one of the safest Liberal seats in Alberta provincially.   Also didn't the NDP win Edmonton-Highlands as it looks like the Western part of Edmonton East went NDP.  Interestingly enough in Calgary, it looks like the Tories won almost every poll in Calgary-Buffalo, Calgary-Currie, and Calgary-Mountainview.  Although I think in the last provincial election, there was the traditional Edmonton-Calgary rivalry.  Ralph Klein being from Calgary probably helped him there but hurt him in Edmonton, whereas Ed Stelmach being from just outside Edmonton probably helped regain some of the lost seats, while hurt him in Calgary.  Federally you don't get the Edmonton-Calgary rivalry like you do provincially or in hockey.

[mileslunn]

If the Wild Rose Party does well next election, all that will be thrown out the window.

True enough, although I think the Wildrose Alliance is strongest in Rural Alberta.  In Calgary and Edmonton they are at this point only strong enough to split the vote which in the case of Calgary would benefit the Liberals as the NDP is practically non-existent there while in Edmonton it could benefit either party.  Also a lot will depend on who the new leader is.  If the new PC leader is more right wing than Ed Stelmach, I suspect a lot of those flirting with the Wildrose Alliance will come back to the PCs.

[mileslunn]

It looks like Vancouver East and Langley were the only ridings any party swept.  In the case of South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, I believe the NDP poll near the border is the Semiahoo reserve which I believe straddles the border.  It looks like my parents' poll in Vancouver Centre and their other home on Bowen Island went Tory despite the fact the Liberals won Bowen Island and also won Vancouver Centre.  In the case of Whistler interesting that the Liberal polls were mostly south of the three lakes (Alta, and the Twin Lakes can't remember the names of each) as I recall these mostly being expensive properties owned by city residents usually over 40.  The areas the Conservatives won north of Highway 99 were more where your younger residents lived although the NDP did win Whistler Village.  Another interesting part is the Liberals didn't win a single poll in Vancouver-Kingsway and Richmond despite the fact they won these ridings in 2006.  It seems the Liberal vote imploded and went much the way people voted provincially.  Otherwise those who voted Liberal federally and provincially (the BC Liberals are more conservative than Liberal) swung over to the Conservatives, while those who voted NDP provincially and Liberal federally, swung over to the NDP.  Also in Vancouver-Quadra, the polls seem to correspond closely with the provincial boundaries otherwise the Liberals won Vancouver-Point Grey and Tories Vancouver-Quilchena.  Vancouver-Point Grey was never a strong BC Liberal riding and probably went BC Liberal more because the MP, Gordon Campbell and now Christy Clark happened to be premier, whereas Vancouver-Quilchena along with West Vancouver-Capilano are the two safest BC Liberal ridings in the province thus not surprising the Conservatives would win Vancouver-Quilchena, although not by the massive margins the BC Liberals did.

[mileslunn]

The poll I live in when I was living in Whistler voted Tory. Not surprising as it's new developments.  I wonder if they built over the camp they had us on yet?

I don't know much about the demographics of Whistler, as I assumed everyone there I encountered did not live there.

There is the problem as the majority of home owners or renters are seasonal who only come on the weekend, not permanant residents.  Never mind a significant portion of the staff on the mountains are Aussies who only live their seasonally and are not eligible to vote.  I haven't checked the stats, but best to check Stats Canada as I believe they only count those who are permanant residents and also they will give the breakdown between citizens and non-citizens although not amongst each group.  I should note although not too familiar, cottage country in Ontario probably has a huge influx of seasonal residents although I don't believe they can vote in those ridings, I think they have to vote in their home one, but it may give those who live there a false impression of the demographics nonetheless.

[mileslunn]

I should note although not too familiar, cottage country in Ontario probably has a huge influx of seasonal residents although I don't believe they can vote in those ridings, I think they have to vote in their home one, but it may give those who live there a false impression of the demographics nonetheless.

When I was in the university residences, Elections Canada offrred me to vote at home or at university. I suppose it is the same for cottages, no?

With a proof of residence, you can do much.

That is only for University students.  I was told the same, however for seasonal residents, you cannot vote there.  My parents have a seasonal place and they have to vote in their main place of residence.  University is a bit different since most spend the semesters in session in the riding of the university or nearby while the the semesters they don't take courses at home thus it is tough call whereas for seasonal residents, there is clearly a primarily one.