Don't really know who Bob Riley is, but I'll say what I said before.
Bullfrog's Populist appeal saves the day as Appalchia votes resoundingly for their hero. Meanwhile, in the South, Bullfrog's roots in places like swamps win him Mississippi and Louisiana as people in the bayous vote heavily for him. Meanwhile, low social liberal turnout gives JCL Bob Riley New Hampshire, while business owners in Nevada are scared to death of Bull "Raging Populist" Frog.
I'd have to agree with you on your conclusion on Bullfrog's electability.