NJ- Rasmussen: Obama Slightly Favored

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

Romney will also do better than McCain in places like Hoboken and Downtown Jersey City (with their substantial Wall Street population). Not necessarily wins but he could shift a few thousand votes over.

The two biggest problems for the GOP since 1992 have been Passaic and Union. Often overlooked because of the "Big Three" in politics (Bergen, Essex and Hudson), these counties have clearly moved hard toward the Democrats. Passaic has had major demographic changes as well as constant infighting between two GOP factions. They managed to win four county offices in 2009 but it may be a fluke. Union has not Republican Freeholders in 15 years, though the rogue Democrats in Elizabeth and Linden sometimes back the GOP. Still, the conversion of Union Township from leans R to solid, plus the softening R vote in western Union, and the erosion of an often substantial GOP Presidential vote in Elizabeth has hurt statewide.

The problem is that there are some conservative-leaning areas in these urban counties but they are in heavily Democratic congressional and legislative districts. Two clear examples are Belleville and Bayonne, both of which shifted heavily from Gore  2000 to Bush 2004 and in Bayonne's case swung less to Obama than the rest of the country. Both towns could potentially go Republican narrowly, but there is no GOP anchor to lead them. The state Party should try to elect Republican school boards, councils and Mayors in towns like these since winning state and federal seats is near impossible in these areas.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

If you look at unemployment data from 2000, a lot of towns in NJ had 2% unemployment! Without the "moral outrage" in other parts of the country toward Bubba's antics, plus an exceptionally good local economy, Gore had NJ in the bag.

Right now, New Jersey's unemployment rate is slightly above the national average. There is less cultural aversion to Obama here, but considering the relative swing against Obama in some of North Jersey in 2008, and Romney likely being fairly inoffensive to the average NJ voter, Romney has a shot here. The question is will Obama have to spend money here to survive, and the fact that Chris Christie is a much tougher politician to crack than John Kasich or Rick Scott (both of whom are Obama's only hopes of winning their states).