NJ- Rasmussen: Obama Slightly Favored

[Zarn]

Yeah, this seems a little bit off.  I think we should we for a little more before we agree that this can be a tossup.

No, this is on par. The GOP usually does better further away from the election. But then people go, "Well I think the Dem is terrible, but Chris Mathews told me the Republicans are evil, mass kitten killers. Also Bon Jovi and Bruce Springsteen like this Democrat."

[Zarn]

I think NJ is pretty polarized, so I assume we'll see something along the same lines we've seen in the past 2 elections. I think 2000 was an exception to the rule.

It is. The difference is Ocean County and the R areas are growing while Essex County is shrinking.

Christie will be the first Republican to cross 50% statewide in a long time.

It could very well be trending R slightly compared to the nation, but I still think the GOP ceiling there is 47% or so in a presidential election, around what Bush got in 2004.

It's been trending right compared to the nation for a while. The ceiling is likely to be a point or two higher now.

This is assuming neither candidate is blown away.

[Zarn]

Pennsylvania is hardly fool's gold - it wouldn't take much to turn it over. Michigan might be more appropriate.

And Texas is hardly comparable to New Jersey.

If I understand the term correctly you want a state that is fairly close but yet so polarized that it is hard to get over to your side. Washington, Oregon and New Jersey all seem to be in this category for the GOP. For Democrats it should be close-ish Southern states and that used to be NC and VA until Obama won them. Now it might be a state like GA. Arizona used to be in this category as well, IIRC.

You have to remember that Bush Sr won PA and NJ. They are comparable to VA and NC, because the GOP has not have that kind of election recently, where it would win those kind of states. The Dems had that with 2008. That said, these states are clearly not moving to the left, if anything they are moving right.

[Zarn]

Georgia is pretty solidly Republican, even in a sweep.

I find it hard to believe Chris Christie's state would stay Democratic in a landslide.

[Zarn]

Romney would play well in NJ relative to whatever the national turned out to be.

No.