NJ- Rasmussen: Obama Slightly Favored

[fezzyfestoon]

Romney would play well in NJ relative to whatever the national turned out to be.

Yeah, I remember him resounding quite well in my area last time around.  If he can actually get people interested in areas like mine in Jersey, he might do pretty well.  If I'm remembering correctly, there was also a fundraising map online last election that showed Romney routinely doing extremely well in places like NoVa and North Jersey.  I'd expect a bump towards him in the election relative to the rest of the country.  I'd seriously doubt he'd be able to compete when it comes towards the end though.  Same goes for the Atlanta and Denver areas, where he seemed to overperform last election.  It looked as though his best areas in the primary were Democratic trending areas of states, which could be a good thing for the GOP if he can stunt some of those trends.  But again, I don't see them actually being able to capitalize should all things get to the point of being that favorable to them (Romney being nominated and continuing his popularity in wealthy suburbs).  If the GOP were able to restake a claim in the suburbs, it could change their course a bit.

[fezzyfestoon]

Morris is really the only place the Republicans have a strong handle on and that's not much in the full picture of North Jersey.  I also completely disagree about Somerset, I can't see it in the Republican column nationally barring a Romney win.  It has gone from 16.5% more Republican than the nation in 1992 to now only 1% more Republican, with consistent movement in every election between.  Everywhere in the county has been lazily moving towards the Democrats for decades now.  In order for Republicans to actually stake a claim to the North Jersey suburbs, we'd have to see a massive shift back in the inner suburbs.  They've got a weak handle on the outer ones, but no presence in the inner ones.  In 2009, almost all of North Jersey trended Democratic compared to the state as a whole, particularly Bergen.  The shore and South are what carried Christie.  That's not a good sign for Republicans in suburban North Jersey.  Bergen and Somerset are perfect examples of an increasingly uninterested suburban New Jersey towards Republicans.  If Romney can snap those areas back that he has performed well in while capitalizing on the moves Middlesex/Monmouth are making towards Republicans, then he'll look good.  Other than that, there isn't much Republicans can do to get Jersey.

[fezzyfestoon]

A lot of that switch in places like Somerset you are talking about occurred from 1990 to 2000, not 2000-2010. This decade, most of the suburban counties have stayed where they are, or headed right, relative to the nation. The state as a whole has a decreasing PVI since Gore got 56% here.

Monmouth (part of which is clearly in the NY metro, which is how I define North Jersey) went from 50% Gore to 45% Kerry to 47% Obama to 31% Corzine in 2009. A clear shift towards Republicans.

Middlesex went from 60% Gore to 56% Kerry to 60% Obama to 45% Corzine. Not particularly trending either way. It's astonishing that Christie won here.

Morris went from 43% Gore to 42% Kerry to 45% Obama to 31% Corzine.

Bergen went from 55% Gore to 52% Kerry to 54% Obama to 49% Corzine. Not too many swing voters here, which makes sense given the geography of the county. The GOP strongly controls the northern section.

Union went from 60% Gore to 59% Kerry to 64% Obama to 51% Corzine. Obvious problem here.

Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon have also moved right. Makes sense as these areas are dominated by whites and of course Christie was putting up 65-25 victories here. So I don't think your last statement is really quite accurate; Christie was carried by Monmouth, Ocean, and the cluster of Northwest counties, all of which we have a full grip on. These areas are Republican across the board as we hold all the legislative seats there.

Raw percentages mean nothing when it comes to trends.  It's all about the relativity.  This is what it looked like in North Jersey with respect to the country and state over the last few national elections in terms of percent more Democratic (starting with 1992):

Middlesex 4.7%, 6.4%, 7.9%, 6.9%, 6.3%

Somerset -13.3%, -18.9%, -18.8%, -10.1%, -9.4%

Morris -21.9%, -25.4%, -27.0%, -22.5%, -23.6%

Bergen -4.1%, -4.1%, -2.2%, -2.2%, -6.1%

Urban (Essex, Union, Hudson, Passaic) 10.8%, 16.5%, 18.7%, 21.9%, 23.7%

Rural (Warren, Hunterdon, Sussex) -22.0%, -30.0%, -34.2%, -31.6%, -31.8%

And because it's significant -
Shore (Monmouth, Ocean) -9.9%, -10.8%, -14.0%, -21.8%, -26.1%

You get a much clearer picture of what the state's politics look like this way.  Middlesex isn't even at the point it used to be even though it has been moving towards Republicans in the 2000s while Bergen is marginally more Republican.  Bergen used to be the Republican stronghold in the state when it was a tossup.  To me it's pretty clear that as the inner suburbs shifted far towards the Democrats, the state became out of reach.  You can see that in the urban counties distinctly.  They are becoming less urban and more suburban, yet relative to the state they are becoming way more Democratic.  And you can see the Republican areas of the shore solidifying for the Republicans over the last two decades, the only place in the state that really did that.  That's been what keeps the state close to competitive rather than a blowout Democratic state.  The three outer counties have such a less significant population than the suburbs and the more urban counties that their increasingly Republican tendencies are muted.  When you compare only 2000 (the Democratic peak) with today, you can really see what's been going on.  It looks good at first in Middlesex and Bergen, but you can see even there that the urban areas (presumably) are holding them back.  1.6% and 3.9% more Republican in Middlesex and Bergen can't compare to 5% more Democratic in the four urban counties.  Both those counties also have high urban populations.  It's an urban state and unless those inner (urban) suburbs are flipped, no Republican is going to be able to pass 50% in New Jersey.  That's why I'm saying Romney has a chance to make it look ok for Republicans relative to the way it's looked in the past few elections.  If he can boost up the wealthier suburbs that haven't been that strong for Republicans lately, it'll be a good showing.  He's not going to win the urban areas and he's not going to get Republicans much stronger in the outer counties or the shore, but if he can get the lazy Republican areas to show their colors that's what will give him a nice percentage in Jersey.

[fezzyfestoon]

Very true about Union and Passaic.  Though as this conversation can demonstrate, speaking in terms of county by county politics often doesn't really work.  The ultimate point is still there though and I think you're right.  Just like with the districts, there is a lot of variation.

Hoboken and Jersey City are interesting.  Hoboken is now the yuppie capital of the world and I wouldn't be surprised if Romney did outperform McCain.  At the same time, the new Hoboken is the poster child for one of Obama's target demographics.  Jersey City is still mostly working class though, so I'm not sure if the effect will be the same.

I'm excited to see what happens in New Jersey next election, I'm betting it will clear up a lot about the direction of the politics in the state.