NJ- Rasmussen: Obama Slightly Favored
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fezzyfestoon
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #50 on: July 03, 2011, 12:04:21 PM »

Very true about Union and Passaic.  Though as this conversation can demonstrate, speaking in terms of county by county politics often doesn't really work.  The ultimate point is still there though and I think you're right.  Just like with the districts, there is a lot of variation.

Hoboken and Jersey City are interesting.  Hoboken is now the yuppie capital of the world and I wouldn't be surprised if Romney did outperform McCain.  At the same time, the new Hoboken is the poster child for one of Obama's target demographics.  Jersey City is still mostly working class though, so I'm not sure if the effect will be the same.

I'm excited to see what happens in New Jersey next election, I'm betting it will clear up a lot about the direction of the politics in the state.
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Kevin
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« Reply #51 on: July 03, 2011, 12:15:59 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2011, 12:17:31 PM by Kevin »

So from what I'm getting from all this talk is that the suburban population of New Jersey is still largely Republican. Especially, in the southern part of the sate along the shore areas.

However many areas of the state have shifted hard D due to demographic and geographical changes?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #52 on: July 03, 2011, 01:16:54 PM »

I'm excited to see what happens in New Jersey next election, I'm betting it will clear up a lot about the direction of the politics in the state.

Yep, so am I, especially with the NJEA divorce from many of the Democrats.

2005 and 2009 show very interesting results. County by county, Corzine's biggest dropoffs were in the Hunterdon > Monmouth belt. Places like Edison and Woodbridge were 60% Dem in 2005, and 45% Dem in 2009, relative to a 10% drop statewide, and places like New Brunswick barely moved at all. Ocean and Monmouth seem to have moved mostly universally township by township 12-13%.
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Badger
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« Reply #53 on: July 06, 2011, 10:38:40 AM »

Morris is really the only place the Republicans have a strong handle on and that's not much in the full picture of North Jersey.  I also completely disagree about Somerset, I can't see it in the Republican column nationally barring a Romney win.  It has gone from 16.5% more Republican than the nation in 1992 to now only 1% more Republican, with consistent movement in every election between.  Everywhere in the county has been lazily moving towards the Democrats for decades now.  In order for Republicans to actually stake a claim to the North Jersey suburbs, we'd have to see a massive shift back in the inner suburbs.  They've got a weak handle on the outer ones, but no presence in the inner ones.  In 2009, almost all of North Jersey trended Democratic compared to the state as a whole, particularly Bergen.  The shore and South are what carried Christie.  That's not a good sign for Republicans in suburban North Jersey.  Bergen and Somerset are perfect examples of an increasingly uninterested suburban New Jersey towards Republicans.  If Romney can snap those areas back that he has performed well in while capitalizing on the moves Middlesex/Monmouth are making towards Republicans, then he'll look good.  Other than that, there isn't much Republicans can do to get Jersey.

A lot of that switch in places like Somerset you are talking about occurred from 1990 to 2000, not 2000-2010. This decade, most of the suburban counties have stayed where they are, or headed right, relative to the nation. The state as a whole has a decreasing PVI since Gore got 56% here.

Monmouth (part of which is clearly in the NY metro, which is how I define North Jersey) went from 50% Gore to 45% Kerry to 47% Obama to 31% Corzine in 2009. A clear shift towards Republicans.

Middlesex went from 60% Gore to 56% Kerry to 60% Obama to 45% Corzine. Not particularly trending either way. It's astonishing that Christie won here.

Morris went from 43% Gore to 42% Kerry to 45% Obama to 31% Corzine.

Bergen went from 55% Gore to 52% Kerry to 54% Obama to 49% Corzine. Not too many swing voters here, which makes sense given the geography of the county. The GOP strongly controls the northern section.

Union went from 60% Gore to 59% Kerry to 64% Obama to 51% Corzine. Obvious problem here.

Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon have also moved right. Makes sense as these areas are dominated by whites and of course Christie was putting up 65-25 victories here. So I don't think your last statement is really quite accurate; Christie was carried by Monmouth, Ocean, and the cluster of Northwest counties, all of which we have a full grip on. These areas are Republican across the board as we hold all the legislative seats there.

Comparison of presidential election results to gubernatorial elections = apples to oranges. Doubly so with someone as individually unpopular as Corzine. Wait for 2012 pres results and we'll talk.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #54 on: July 06, 2011, 12:03:39 PM »

Romney obviously won't win New Jersey, but he would certainly play better there than most. It's a pretty tolerant state, too -- I doubt his Mormonism would be much of an issue there.

So from what I'm getting from all this talk is that the suburban population of New Jersey is still largely Republican. Especially, in the southern part of the sate along the shore areas.

However many areas of the state have shifted hard D due to demographic and geographical changes?

There have been few "hard D" shifts in the state, but there have been a handful of "soft D" shifts. Primarily:

  • Bergen County, once a GOP stronghold, shifted towards Democrats hard in the 2000s. It's moved back to the GOP a little, but that is mostly a corrective move and based on Democratic corruption in the county. On the whole, it's likely to keep trending Democratic at a steady pace.
  • Somerset County has always been a Republican stronghold, but Democrats are moving the needle there. It's a natural progression -- there's less and less farmland, more suburbia. These towns aren't getting less wealthy, but they are getting more ethnically diverse. It remains Republican, but it's moderate Republican (favoring the Lance/Zimmer type over the  Ferguson/Pappas type). Movement in Somerset County is one of the main reasons why Ferguson almost lost.
  • Essex County has been incredibly polarized throughout its history -- a firmly Democratic urban core in Newark; a rich Republican set of outer suburbs. These once-Republican towns are undergoing a transformation -- more transplants from New York City are moving in seeking a "quieter" life. A key barometer here: Democrats won the freeholder district carved out specifically for Republicans in 2005.
  • Republicans enjoyed much success in Mercer County in the 1980s; the 1991 ultra-Republican blip gave the GOP a legislative foothold in the county that lasted two decades. Democrats have since recaptured just about everything outside local government in Hamilton Township, the county's largest and most competitive municipality. In 1993, Whitman won Mercer by 6%; Christie lost it by 15% in 2009. It's the only county where Corzine improved his margins over time.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #55 on: July 06, 2011, 12:15:24 PM »

Morris is really the only place the Republicans have a strong handle on and that's not much in the full picture of North Jersey.  I also completely disagree about Somerset, I can't see it in the Republican column nationally barring a Romney win.  It has gone from 16.5% more Republican than the nation in 1992 to now only 1% more Republican, with consistent movement in every election between.  Everywhere in the county has been lazily moving towards the Democrats for decades now.  In order for Republicans to actually stake a claim to the North Jersey suburbs, we'd have to see a massive shift back in the inner suburbs.  They've got a weak handle on the outer ones, but no presence in the inner ones.  In 2009, almost all of North Jersey trended Democratic compared to the state as a whole, particularly Bergen.  The shore and South are what carried Christie.  That's not a good sign for Republicans in suburban North Jersey.  Bergen and Somerset are perfect examples of an increasingly uninterested suburban New Jersey towards Republicans.  If Romney can snap those areas back that he has performed well in while capitalizing on the moves Middlesex/Monmouth are making towards Republicans, then he'll look good.  Other than that, there isn't much Republicans can do to get Jersey.

A lot of that switch in places like Somerset you are talking about occurred from 1990 to 2000, not 2000-2010. This decade, most of the suburban counties have stayed where they are, or headed right, relative to the nation. The state as a whole has a decreasing PVI since Gore got 56% here.

Monmouth (part of which is clearly in the NY metro, which is how I define North Jersey) went from 50% Gore to 45% Kerry to 47% Obama to 31% Corzine in 2009. A clear shift towards Republicans.

Middlesex went from 60% Gore to 56% Kerry to 60% Obama to 45% Corzine. Not particularly trending either way. It's astonishing that Christie won here.

Morris went from 43% Gore to 42% Kerry to 45% Obama to 31% Corzine.

Bergen went from 55% Gore to 52% Kerry to 54% Obama to 49% Corzine. Not too many swing voters here, which makes sense given the geography of the county. The GOP strongly controls the northern section.

Union went from 60% Gore to 59% Kerry to 64% Obama to 51% Corzine. Obvious problem here.

Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon have also moved right. Makes sense as these areas are dominated by whites and of course Christie was putting up 65-25 victories here. So I don't think your last statement is really quite accurate; Christie was carried by Monmouth, Ocean, and the cluster of Northwest counties, all of which we have a full grip on. These areas are Republican across the board as we hold all the legislative seats there.

Comparison of presidential election results to gubernatorial elections = apples to oranges. Doubly so with someone as individually unpopular as Corzine. Wait for 2012 pres results and we'll talk.

Democrats reliably win statewide elections in West Virginia yet have recently voted for the Republican nominee for President by big margins in the last three Presidential elections. I figure that it could go easily for a Southern moderate Democrat (Carter -- twice!, Clinton) but not for a d@mnyankee Democrat since HHH in 1968. Culture matters greatly in deciding what candidate can win what state -- and Barack Obama is a horrible match for West Virginia. The only way in which President Obama wins West Virginia in 2012 is if the Republicans nominate a weak or extremist candidate.

Quality of a candidate matters greatly, too.  A very effective Governor or Senator might successfully navigate against a landslide against his Party. Some can govern or legislate effectively while in the minority; some can't.
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Verily
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« Reply #56 on: July 06, 2011, 12:24:34 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2011, 12:28:24 PM by Verily »

Romney obviously won't win New Jersey, but he would certainly play better there than most. It's a pretty tolerant state, too -- I doubt his Mormonism would be much of an issue there.

So from what I'm getting from all this talk is that the suburban population of New Jersey is still largely Republican. Especially, in the southern part of the sate along the shore areas.

However many areas of the state have shifted hard D due to demographic and geographical changes?

There have been few "hard D" shifts in the state, but there have been a handful of "soft D" shifts. Primarily:

  • Bergen County, once a GOP stronghold, shifted towards Democrats hard in the 2000s. It's moved back to the GOP a little, but that is mostly a corrective move and based on Democratic corruption in the county. On the whole, it's likely to keep trending Democratic at a steady pace.
  • Somerset County has always been a Republican stronghold, but Democrats are moving the needle there. It's a natural progression -- there's less and less farmland, more suburbia. These towns aren't getting less wealthy, but they are getting more ethnically diverse. It remains Republican, but it's moderate Republican (favoring the Lance/Zimmer type over the  Ferguson/Pappas type). Movement in Somerset County is one of the main reasons why Ferguson almost lost.
  • Essex County has been incredibly polarized throughout its history -- a firmly Democratic urban core in Newark; a rich Republican set of outer suburbs. These once-Republican towns are undergoing a transformation -- more transplants from New York City are moving in seeking a "quieter" life. A key barometer here: Democrats won the freeholder district carved out specifically for Republicans in 2005.
  • Republicans enjoyed much success in Mercer County in the 1980s; the 1991 ultra-Republican blip gave the GOP a legislative foothold in the county that lasted two decades. Democrats have since recaptured just about everything outside local government in Hamilton Township, the county's largest and most competitive municipality. In 1993, Whitman won Mercer by 6%; Christie lost it by 15% in 2009. It's the only county where Corzine improved his margins over time.

I kind of disagree on Somerset. It's not moderate Republican, it just happens to have some very Democratic areas in it (North Plainfield, Somerset CDP/Franklin Twp). The Republicans are no more moderate than those in Morris, there are just more minorities.

The change in the Democrats' favor mostly stems from the growth of Franklin Twp relative to the rest of the county (22% growth in Franklin Twp 2000-2010 v. 8% county-wide), and the increasing minority population there.
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bonncaruso
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« Reply #57 on: July 06, 2011, 12:36:15 PM »

Wow. I expected Obama to be in better shape in New Jersey.

Is a RAS poll, expect it to be off between +4 and +6. So, the margin is more like +15, which is exactly the margin with this Obama won this state in 2008.

RAS has a verifiably BIAS in it's polling.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #58 on: July 07, 2011, 01:12:02 PM »

Comparison of presidential election results to gubernatorial elections = apples to oranges. Doubly so with someone as individually unpopular as Corzine. Wait for 2012 pres results and we'll talk.

The 'unpopular' meme is overstated when it comes to NJ. Unpopularity has never prevented the Demcorats from winning 54-44 or so even after crap like the Torricelli switch.

If you want Presidential results, read the presidential results. Obama clearly underperformed Gore in the counties mentioned. NJ went from 8% more Democratic than the nation in 2000 (Gore 56%) to 6% more Democratic than the nation in 2004 (Kerry 53%) to 4% more Democratic than the nation (Obama 57%).
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krazen1211
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« Reply #59 on: July 07, 2011, 01:14:02 PM »

Democrats reliably win statewide elections in West Virginia yet have recently voted for the Republican nominee for President by big margins in the last three Presidential elections. I figure that it could go easily for a Southern moderate Democrat (Carter -- twice!, Clinton) but not for a d@mnyankee Democrat since HHH in 1968. Culture matters greatly in deciding what candidate can win what state -- and Barack Obama is a horrible match for West Virginia. The only way in which President Obama wins West Virginia in 2012 is if the Republicans nominate a weak or extremist candidate.

Quality of a candidate matters greatly, too.  A very effective Governor or Senator might successfully navigate against a landslide against his Party. Some can govern or legislate effectively while in the minority; some can't.

It's a good thing, then, that Christie is both a very effective governor and relatively popular by NJ standards.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #60 on: July 07, 2011, 01:27:22 PM »

NJ went from 8% more Democratic than the nation in 2000 (Gore 56%) to 6% more Democratic than the nation in 2004 (Kerry 53%) to 4% more Democratic than the nation (Obama 57%).

Backing up, NJ increased to 8% more Democratic than the nation in 2000 (Gore 56%) from 4.5% more Democratic in 1996 (Clinton 54%), and there from marginally more Republican than the country as a whole in 1992 (Clinton 42.95%, with Bush well overperforming.)

1992: 0
1996: D+4.5
2000: D+8
2004: D+6
2008: D+4

What I see here is that 2000 is the odd man out here, a high water mark for Dems that is uncharacteristic of NJ.

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Verily
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« Reply #61 on: July 07, 2011, 01:28:59 PM »

Comparison of presidential election results to gubernatorial elections = apples to oranges. Doubly so with someone as individually unpopular as Corzine. Wait for 2012 pres results and we'll talk.

The 'unpopular' meme is overstated when it comes to NJ. Unpopularity has never prevented the Demcorats from winning 54-44 or so even after crap like the Torricelli switch.

If you want Presidential results, read the presidential results. Obama clearly underperformed Gore in the counties mentioned. NJ went from 8% more Democratic than the nation in 2000 (Gore 56%) to 6% more Democratic than the nation in 2004 (Kerry 53%) to 4% more Democratic than the nation (Obama 57%).

Gore overperformed in NJ because of a convergence of factors (Jewish VP candidate, gun control debate, cultural distaste for everything Texas, etc.). Everyone agrees on that. Just drop it.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #62 on: July 07, 2011, 01:38:52 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2011, 02:13:48 PM by krazen1211 »

NJ went from 8% more Democratic than the nation in 2000 (Gore 56%) to 6% more Democratic than the nation in 2004 (Kerry 53%) to 4% more Democratic than the nation (Obama 57%).

Backing up, NJ increased to 8% more Democratic than the nation in 2000 (Gore 56%) from 4.5% more Democratic in 1996 (Clinton 54%), and there from marginally more Republican than the country as a whole in 1992 (Clinton 42.95%, with Bush well overperforming.)

1992: 0
1996: D+4.5
2000: D+8
2004: D+6
2008: D+4

What I see here is that 2000 is the odd man out here, a high water mark for Dems that is uncharacteristic of NJ.

2000 was uncharacteristic, but not for the silly reasons that are cited in the posts here. They are just random musings postulated as fact to try to ignore the obvious.

The outcomes are much better explained by real fundamentals, such as of course, the fact that NJ's economy peaked in the year 2000, and not random tangents that distract from real fundamentals.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #63 on: July 07, 2011, 01:57:28 PM »

Gore overperformed in NJ because of a convergence of factors (Jewish VP candidate, gun control debate, cultural distaste for everything Texas, etc.). Everyone agrees on that. Just drop it.

Gore was thrashing Bush in NJ polling months before Lieberman was selected as the Vice President. What prophetic voters, who of course forgot that Poppy was also from Texas.....
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Badger
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« Reply #64 on: July 11, 2011, 09:57:29 AM »

Comparison of presidential election results to gubernatorial elections = apples to oranges. Doubly so with someone as individually unpopular as Corzine. Wait for 2012 pres results and we'll talk.

The 'unpopular' meme is overstated when it comes to NJ. Unpopularity has never prevented the Demcorats from winning 54-44 or so even after crap like the Torricelli switch.

If you want Presidential results, read the presidential results. Obama clearly underperformed Gore in the counties mentioned. NJ went from 8% more Democratic than the nation in 2000 (Gore 56%) to 6% more Democratic than the nation in 2004 (Kerry 53%) to 4% more Democratic than the nation (Obama 57%).

Corzine was personally more unpopular than Lautenberg ever was. Part of the reason he was selected to replace the also personally unpopular Torch. Besides, comparison of grubenatorial results to federal election results are often a shakey comparison for any state under any circumstances.

Your point about statewide PVI is noted, but building off what Brittain said don't you think that Obama's 57%/+ 4.3 (D) PVI showing--exceeded in the last century only by LBJ and FDR in 36--is more representative of the statewide ceiling for a Democratic presidential candidate than of a GOP shift?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #65 on: July 11, 2011, 12:49:42 PM »
« Edited: July 12, 2011, 09:36:43 AM by krazen1211 »

Corzine was personally more unpopular than Lautenberg ever was. Part of the reason he was selected to replace the also personally unpopular Torch. Besides, comparison of grubenatorial results to federal election results are often a shakey comparison for any state under any circumstances.

Your point about statewide PVI is noted, but building off what Brittain said don't you think that Obama's 57%/+ 4.3 (D) PVI showing--exceeded in the last century only by LBJ and FDR in 36--is more representative of the statewide ceiling for a Democratic presidential candidate than of a GOP shift?

Both NJ Senators have tended to have average or so approval ratings in most polling for the last decade; somewhere between 35-40% approval and a slightly smaller amount disapproving. Of course they will outperform this and get ~54% on election day; Lautenberg got 56% in 2008; these aren't stud candidates like Schumer who can win just about every county in the state and the electorate isn't like that anyway.

I think you are correct though in saying that such is the ceiling for the statewide vote, at least at the time. It just happens to be quite a bit lower than the neighboring states.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #66 on: July 11, 2011, 06:04:12 PM »

If you look at unemployment data from 2000, a lot of towns in NJ had 2% unemployment! Without the "moral outrage" in other parts of the country toward Bubba's antics, plus an exceptionally good local economy, Gore had NJ in the bag.

Right now, New Jersey's unemployment rate is slightly above the national average. There is less cultural aversion to Obama here, but considering the relative swing against Obama in some of North Jersey in 2008, and Romney likely being fairly inoffensive to the average NJ voter, Romney has a shot here. The question is will Obama have to spend money here to survive, and the fact that Chris Christie is a much tougher politician to crack than John Kasich or Rick Scott (both of whom are Obama's only hopes of winning their states).
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