What states switch hands in 2006?
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  What states switch hands in 2006?
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Author Topic: What states switch hands in 2006?  (Read 8854 times)
A18
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« on: December 07, 2004, 12:37:55 PM »



Also, who is this Republican from Rhode Island? He's a RINO, right?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2004, 12:40:23 PM »

Carcieri is not a RINO.  And he's popular there and will probably win in 2006.
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A18
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« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2004, 12:47:54 PM »

I just can't find his stances on any issues. http://issues2000.org/Donald_Carcieri.htm
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danwxman
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« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2004, 12:51:28 PM »

Ohio?
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A18
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« Reply #4 on: December 07, 2004, 12:52:27 PM »

Why do you think Ohio will change?
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danwxman
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« Reply #5 on: December 07, 2004, 12:55:12 PM »


Taft is very unpopular, or so everybody from Ohio says. I'm sure if the Democrats put up somebody decent, they could win.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6 on: December 07, 2004, 02:27:05 PM »

Taft will not run again, of course.

Depends on who the Republicans put up.  If they put up another moderate RINO like Taft, they will probably lose.

They put up someone like Ken Blackwell, who is actually very popular in the state and has opposed the state GOP on a number of instances, they will have the natural advantage.

Knowing the Ohio GOP track record, they'll probably put up a moderate and lose.

Ohio has a natural GOP tilt at the state level, slightly more than Florida (which is why I always wondered why the Dems focused so heavily on it, but I guess they figured they wouldn't do as well in Florida), but with the right Dem candidate, the Gov position can be won.
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BRTD
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« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2004, 01:44:47 PM »

Even though the race is really a toss up, I say that Minnesota Attorney General Mike Hatch will beat Tim Pawlenty.
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A18
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« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2004, 01:49:08 PM »

Pawlenty is another guy with no positions on record at http://issues2000.org/Tim_Pawlenty.htm
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BRTD
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« Reply #9 on: December 08, 2004, 01:52:58 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2004, 01:54:51 PM by BRTD »

His positions included that the best way to solve the state's defecit is by increasing gambling, that if a special legislative session has to be called it's more important to pass a gay marriage ban than fix the budget problems, and if the State Senate is playing partisan politics if they refuse to rubber stamp every single solitary appointment he makes.
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Ben.
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« Reply #10 on: December 08, 2004, 02:39:00 PM »

Arkansas, New York and Georgia will all be competative with the right candidates, Spitzer should win NY as for Arkansas and Georgia any ideas for Dem candidates? 
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2004, 04:04:37 PM »

Arkansas, New York and Georgia will all be competative with the right candidates, Spitzer should win NY as for Arkansas and Georgia any ideas for Dem candidates? 

Arkansas is a fundamentally a Democratic state... they should find someone whatwith them holding pretty much all of the statewide offices and with lopsided majorities in the legislature.

GA Sec of State Cathy (Kathy?) Cox is probably the best Democratic candidate in Georgia... but as the GA Dems have shown an astonishing ability to commit electoral suicide of late (with the exception of picking Barrow in GA-12 this year) I dunno whether she'll get the nod.
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Ben.
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« Reply #12 on: December 08, 2004, 05:03:03 PM »

 
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Would be interesting if Wes Clark ran, it would be nice if he could do it, that said no doubt he'll have said one or two stupid things during the primaries... but all the same Smiley

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From what I know the race for the Dem nomination is largely between Cox and the lt.Gov Mark Taylor… either would be competitive, but as I say it’s a state I know little about, always thought the Dems should have been stronger there than they are… probably that they voted for Clinton in 92… ah well Sad   
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Storebought
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« Reply #13 on: December 08, 2004, 06:38:15 PM »

Carcieri is not a RINO.  And he's popular there and will probably win in 2006.

That's true--he's way less liberal than Chafee. Carcieri won with 54%, a earshattering landslide for a first-term republican in RI. Only problem is that his vetoes are constantly overridden by the legislature, a common phenomenon in the single-party Northeast.
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #14 on: December 08, 2004, 06:53:45 PM »

Iowa, Nussle will clean house. I will give Vilsack some props though, he is currently attempting to stop any hikes on property taxes.

The front runner Democrat, Lt. Gov. Sally Penderson has chosen not to run for Governor leaving the Democrats of the state in a tight spot.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #15 on: December 23, 2004, 10:01:55 PM »

Only chance PA has of flipping to the GOP is if Schweiker runs.

We have a recent history of 2 term governors, alternating parties.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #16 on: December 23, 2004, 10:40:29 PM »

Only chance PA has of flipping to the GOP is if Schweiker runs.

I wouldn't say that's the only chance. Best chance, yeah I can agree with that but only? No.
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« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2005, 08:49:20 PM »
« Edited: January 05, 2005, 08:54:51 PM by nickshepDEM »

Maryland has a good chance of switching.  Early polls show Mayor Martin O'Malley ahead of incumbent Bob Ehrlich and another possible candidate Doug Duncan of Montgomery County very close to Ehrlich despite lack of name recognition.
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zachman
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« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2005, 09:00:33 PM »

Only chance PA has of flipping to the GOP is if Schweiker runs.

We have a recent history of 2 term governors, alternating parties.
I don't know Schweiker but Lynn Swann could probably do it.

Here's another question: which states will have vacancies because candidates want to run for president in 2008:

I say Mitt will, as will Warner (obviously he can't run again) , and Jeb will too.
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Akno21
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« Reply #19 on: January 07, 2005, 09:38:44 PM »

Is Cathy Cox the one who wanted to eliminate evolution textbooks or something across those lines?

Ehrlich is certainly vulnerable, there are a number of candidates who can beat him.
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BRTD
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« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2005, 02:34:18 PM »

Is Cathy Cox the one who wanted to eliminate evolution textbooks or something across those lines?

no, that was Kathy Cox, the Republican Superintendent of Public Schools.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #21 on: January 26, 2005, 10:28:41 PM »

Here is the Senate Class up in 2006

This is early handicapping,

I define "potentially vulnerable" as meaning a stong candidate with enough money has a shot of beating the incumbant... does not mean the challenger will win, or even would be favored, but that it would be a competitive race...

Safe Dems

Akaka, Daniel - (D - HI)   
Byrd, Robert - (D - WV) (if he is still alive, if not seat is a tossup)
Bingaman, Jeff - (D - NM)
Carper, Thomas - (D - DE) 
Feinstein, Dianne - (D - CA) 
Clinton, Hillary - (D - NY)
Corzine, Jon - (D - NJ) 
Kennedy, Edward - (D - MA)   
Kohl, Herb - (D - WI)
Lieberman, Joseph - (D - CT)
Sarbanes, Paul - (D - MD) 

Potentially Vulnerable Dems

Cantwell, Maria - (D - WA)   
Dayton, Mark - (D - MN) 
Nelson, Ben - (D - NE)   
Jeffords, James - (I - VT) (To an Dem candidate, if they run one)
Conrad, Kent - (D - ND)
Nelson, Bill - (D - FL) 
Stabenow, Debbie - (D - MI)

Potentiall Vulnerable GOP

Chafee, Lincoln - (R - RI) 
DeWine, Mike - (R - OH) 
Ensign, John - (R - NV) 
Snowe, Olympia - (R - ME) 
Santorum, Rick - (R - PA)
Talent, James - (R - MO)   

Safe GOP

Burns, Conrad - (R - MT) 
Frist, Bill - (R - TN) 
Hatch, Orrin - (R - UT)   
Hutchison, Kay - (R - TX) 
Kyl, Jon - (R - AZ)   
Lott, Trent - (R - MS)   
Lugar, Richard - (R - IN) 
Thomas, Craig - (R - WY) 
Allen, George - (R - VA) 
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BobOMac2k2
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« Reply #22 on: January 26, 2005, 10:30:59 PM »

Illinois might.
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nclib
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« Reply #23 on: January 26, 2005, 11:03:35 PM »


Vermont and New Hampshire will have Gubernatorial Elections in 2006. (They have 2-year-terms.)
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Alcon
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« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2005, 12:02:07 AM »

Vorlon,

Why do you think Jeffords is vulnerable? As a Republican, in Vermont, he won 66%-26% against a Democrat. Does his change to independent change things?

For that matter, why are the Dems that interested in replacing him? He's pretty much a liberal libertarian.
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