2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.
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Author Topic: 2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.  (Read 116116 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #600 on: October 11, 2011, 07:40:25 PM »
With 16 polls left (out of about 900)

PC - 56.11%
NDP - 24.48%
Lib - 19.21%


edit - Marokai, this map I just posted has given me an idea for electoral reform. "Second Past The Post"
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #601 on: October 11, 2011, 07:48:15 PM »
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on September 30, 2011, 02:05:01 PM

Liberals
Cartwright (only solid seat)
Burgeo (possible loss as well)

less likely:
Port de Grave
The Isles of Notre Dame
Bellevue
Bay Islands
Humber Valley
Torngat Mountains



NDP :
Signal Hill (most solid)
Labrador West (so solid I'd eat my shirt if they lose) omnomnom?
St. John's Centre
St. John's East
Burin-Placentia
St. John's North
St. John's South

less likely:
St. John's West
Lake Melville
Humber Valley
Port de Grave
Lewisporte
Placentia
Bellevue
Conception Bay East
and Virginia Waters, the Premier's own riding

So that's 16 ridings, MAX, that could go NDP, and 8 Liberal (with 3 overlap).
That means that I see the PC party winning in the other 27 ridings, and no way in hell they will lose those 27 ridings; with a maximum limit for the party of 45.


Ridings I said would go PC
St. Barbe
The Straits
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #602 on: October 11, 2011, 08:14:38 PM »
« Edited: October 11, 2011, 08:18:08 PM by Teddy (SoFE) »
217,711 total ballots cast (as per elections newfoundland)

PC - 56.09% - 122,115 (~10)
NDP - 24.64% - 53,645 (~10)
Lib - 19.07% - 51,515 (~10)
Oth - 0.19% - 415 (~10)

 (~10) = Give or take 10 votes.


In Question Period, this should give the Liberals 16 or 17 minutes and the NDP 14 or 13.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #603 on: October 11, 2011, 08:19:02 PM »
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on October 11, 2011, 07:35:42 PM
Second Place map:



NDP - 23
Lib - 15
PC - 10
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #604 on: October 11, 2011, 08:20:27 PM »
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on October 11, 2011, 08:14:38 PM
217,711 total ballots cast (as per elections newfoundland)

PC - 56.09% - 122,115 (~10)
NDP - 24.64% - 53,645 (~10)
Lib - 19.07% - 51,515 (~10)
Oth - 0.19% - 415 (~10)

 (~10) = Give or take 10 votes.


In Question Period, this should give the Liberals 16 or 17 minutes and the NDP 14 or 13.

My spreadsheet gave slightly different vote totals - I was using the Elections Newfoundland website.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #605 on: October 11, 2011, 08:21:41 PM »
Quote from: Smid on October 11, 2011, 08:20:27 PM
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on October 11, 2011, 08:14:38 PM
217,711 total ballots cast (as per elections newfoundland)

PC - 56.09% - 122,115 (~10)
NDP - 24.64% - 53,645 (~10)
Lib - 19.07% - 51,515 (~10)
Oth - 0.19% - 415 (~10)

 (~10) = Give or take 10 votes.


In Question Period, this should give the Liberals 16 or 17 minutes and the NDP 14 or 13.

My spreadsheet gave slightly different vote totals - I was using the Elections Newfoundland website.
Lard Tunderin Jeezus, don't keep it ta yerself
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #606 on: October 11, 2011, 08:22:54 PM »
All these Ontario avatars confuse me Sad
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #607 on: October 11, 2011, 08:27:51 PM »
Sorry - here's what I've got. I didn't post before because I assumed mine was wrong.

Total Votes - 222,133

PC - 124,602 (56.09%) -13.23%
Lib - 42,364 (19.07%) -2.93%
NDP - 54,736 (24.64%) +16.18%
Ind - 431 (0.19%) +0.16%
Labrador Party - 0 (0%) -0.2%

The absence of an election in Bonavista South in 2007 may have had a slight impact on those swing figures.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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« Reply #608 on: October 11, 2011, 08:41:23 PM »
Intriguing set of results, even for Newfies. It would have been nice if the NDP had edged the Liberals in terms of seats, but until very recently they were never a factor in the province, and now they certainly are... so...

Also interesting to see that the Liberal vote didn't totally evaporate after all. The next election there may be very interesting.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #609 on: October 11, 2011, 08:42:49 PM »
The live stream will probably die in 15 mins, then we have a hour before the Yukon election (which won't take this long)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #610 on: October 11, 2011, 08:44:17 PM »
« Edited: October 11, 2011, 09:46:13 PM by Sibboleth »
Oh, can I just say Cheesy at the NDP winning the Straits? Of course I can. I am the Lord and Master of this board.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #611 on: October 11, 2011, 08:54:04 PM »
lol, Aylward didn't even come close to winning: PC 49.3, Lib 32.7, NDP 16.5, NA 1.5

Anyways, looking over the results, Labrador West is the one genuine disappointment to me. They actually came closer next door in Lake Melville. Backlash against the imprisoned former MHA, or a popular incumbent? Both?

Interesting result just spotted: Liberals fall to just 12% in Bellevue, which used to be a stronghold and then some.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #612 on: October 11, 2011, 09:00:33 PM »
Quote from: Sibboleth on October 11, 2011, 08:54:04 PM
lol, Aylward didn't even come close to winning: PC 49.3, Lib 32.7, NDP 16.5, NA 1.5

Anyways, looking over the results, Labrador West is the one genuine disappointment to me. They actually came closer next door in Lake Melville. Backlash against the imprisoned former MHA, or a popular incumbent? Both?

Interesting result just spotted: Liberals fall to just 12% in Bellevue, which used to be a stronghold and then some.

Labrador votes for local people. It's a very, very rural area. The NDP Candidate was "new" to the area.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #613 on: October 11, 2011, 09:01:48 PM »
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on October 11, 2011, 09:00:33 PM
The NDP Candidate was "new" to the area.

Ah, right. There we are then.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #614 on: October 11, 2011, 09:02:35 PM »
« Edited: October 11, 2011, 09:07:45 PM by Smid »
2011 Newfoundland & Labrador Provincial Election Results



Al - just emailed you my table.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #615 on: October 11, 2011, 09:10:50 PM »
Excellent; I'll check it in the morning.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #616 on: October 11, 2011, 09:15:37 PM »
Shifting to Yukon mode, I heard it snowed in parts of the Territory. Some speculation on impact that may have on turnout.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #617 on: October 11, 2011, 09:43:41 PM »
I beat 308 once again. I got 9 ridings wrong. I believe he got 11 wrong. Smiley

The Straits was obviously the big surprise (the Essex of NL?); disappointment at Burin and Labrador West and not  being OO.

I'm not surprised at how well the Liberals did. It wasn't too long ago I had the Liberals winning the seats that they did, only to chicken out at the end.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #618 on: October 11, 2011, 10:02:16 PM »
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/yukonvotes2011/story/2011/10/07/yukonvotes-results-live.html

YUKON LIVE
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #619 on: October 11, 2011, 10:06:05 PM »
Yukon Party using blue this time. And I know from my experience in the NDP that the party does, and will, call the media to request a colour. Previously they used Green. I don't think it's any surprise given that their "rift" from the Feds that started in 1992 has healed; the Premier is the former CPC Candidate.

I'll be interested to see is the Saskatchewan Party is going to keep using Green or is going to switch to Blue as well.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #620 on: October 11, 2011, 10:08:13 PM »
Anyone watching and wondering about the "poor quality" remember that the Yukon has fewer than 40,000 people total, so you get whatever media you can get for that.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #621 on: October 11, 2011, 10:11:18 PM »
YP up on the board.

YP 1
NDP 0
Lib 0
Oth 0
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #622 on: October 11, 2011, 10:22:18 PM »
I think the YP used blue last time.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #623 on: October 11, 2011, 10:27:09 PM »
YP 4
Lib 1
NDP 0
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #624 on: October 11, 2011, 10:28:18 PM »
Lib 93 votes
YP 51 votes

All polls in, in the smallest riding way in the north.
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