2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[mileslunn]

NDP doing horrible, at only 2-3%.  Though I wonder if the fact each riding has only 4,000 people hurts them as I suspect personal popularity of candidates has a bigger impact here than in other provinces.

[mileslunn]

CBC has now projected a Liberal majority, yawn

[Insula Dei]

Can the Greens outpoll the NDP in PEI?

[Hatman 🍁]

Can the Greens outpoll the NDP in PEI?

They probably will; they did last time.

Tories doing quite well, ahead in 6 ridings so far.

[mileslunn]

Will have to see the final results, but there seems to be a pattern be it in Toronto mayoral election, last federal, and NB provincial that the polls underestimate Tory support.  I wonder if it will continue or just a coincidence.  My theory is polls are weighted based on a representative sample of the population while certain segments are more likely to show up than others and the groups more likely to show up are also more likely to vote Tory.

[Holmes]

PC now leading in 7 ridings so far... looking forward to the maps. The Prince Edward Island NDP must be the least successful NDP party in the country right now.

[Hatman 🍁]

For the record, the Tories are up in;

Georgetown-St Peter's
Montague-Kilmuir
Belfast-Murray River
Stratford-Kinlock
Morell-Mermaid
Tracadie-Hillsborough Park
Tignish-Palmer Road

[mileslunn]

It seems like using federal results, you would get the same numbers 3 Liberals to 1 Tory, but Cardigan going Tory and Egmont going Liberal otherwise the Tory's strength is at opposite ends (East provincially and West federally).

[Holmes]

Montague - Kilmuir is only 45 votes - 44 votes for PC though, hardly anything to make conclusions with. (edit: Liberals retook the lead)

PC doing better than expected in the popular vote, but it's not like there were a lot of recent polls to go by anyway. 308 guy screws up on this one.

[MaxQue]

308 guy screws up on this one.

Surprise!

[mileslunn]

The problem with 308 is he uses uniform swings or federally uniform regional swings which while they work in some places they don't work here.  Too bad Democraticspace.com didn't cover this as their projection is usually one of the most accurate as is Barry Kay at Wilfred Laurier University.

[Hatman 🍁]

I had the Tories at 3 seats. I didn't feel comfortable giving them anymore.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

This is why I don't project PEI elections

[mileslunn]

I had the Tories at 3 seats. I didn't feel comfortable giving them anymore.

 Lets wait for the final results, but if they are underestimated maybe the same will happen tomorrow and Thursday.  Not necessarily, but just saying.

[mileslunn]

The Tories are down to 6 seats and their popular vote is falling slightly.  I am guessing the Charlottetown polls are a bit slower to come in so the numbers will fall a bit more.

[Hatman 🍁]

I had the Tories at 3 seats. I didn't feel comfortable giving them anymore.

 Lets wait for the final results, but if they are underestimated maybe the same will happen tomorrow and Thursday.  Not necessarily, but just saying.

Well, let's look at the polls. The most recent one had the Liberals at 53% (they're at 52%), which is what the got in 2007. The Tories won three seats in 2007.  

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

PEI's voting patters =/= rural/urban split.

[mileslunn]

PEI's voting patters =/= rural/urban split.

  True in the case of the NDP as what little support they have is mostly in Charlottetown, but both the Liberals and Tories seem to do marginally better in the rural parts.

[Hatman 🍁]

PEI's voting patters =/= rural/urban split.

  True in the case of the NDP as what little support they have is mostly in Charlottetown, but both the Liberals and Tories seem to do marginally better in the rural parts.

It's more of a geographical divide. kings County is PC, prince & queens is liberal.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

simplistic but sort of true.

Generally, east of C-Town and west of S-Side vote PC, while west of C-Town, and east of S-Side votes Liberal, with the two towns deciding things, but of course there can be 3 or so ridings on either side of that divide that switch - the problem is when you have 27 ridings province wide, 3 or so is a huge chunk.

[Hatman 🍁]

simplistic but sort of true.

Generally, east of C-Town and west of S-Side vote PC, while west of C-Town, and east of S-Side votes Liberal, with the two towns deciding things, but of course there can be 3 or so ridings on either side of that divide that switch - the problem is when you have 27 ridings province wide, 3 or so is a huge chunk.

in recent elections, prince county has been very Liberal. Ever since 1996. Of course, things are different federally.
The PCs only lead in one seat there, Tignish-Palmer Road. That also happens to be the old riding of Gail Shea.

[Hatman 🍁]

Souris-Elmira flipped, Tories down to 5 seats.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This would seem to be a good argument in favor of proportional representation.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I'm talking about elections not since 1996 but 1896 Historically the Tories have swept western prince.

[mileslunn]

This would seem to be a good argument in favor of proportional representation.

  Depends on the minimum threshold.  If it was 4 or 5% as in most places that use PR the Greens and NDP would still get shut out.  Off course the results would probably be different if PR was used.  Its unlikely you would get identical results with different systems.