What will happen first?
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Poll
Question: In the coming future, what will happen first in presidential election in the 2000's?
#1
Majority of women vote for GOp		  
#2
Majority of white men vote for the Democrats		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 26

Author Topic: What will happen first?  (Read 2413 times)
UpcomingYouthvoter
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« on: May 21, 2011, 03:36:37 PM »
Go.
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King
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2011, 04:19:20 PM »
Internet scared GOP housewives overturnout.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2011, 04:45:09 PM »
White men voting Democratic would take a landslide, and likely with the Democrat being a moderate Southerner.

Women voting Republican nearly happened in 2004, and could easily happen in a good year for the Republican party.
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Lambsbread
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2011, 05:18:29 PM »
Option 2.
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UpcomingYouthvoter
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2011, 05:34:28 PM »
Quote from: Wisconsin Uber Alles on May 21, 2011, 04:45:09 PM
White men voting Democratic would take a landslide, and likely with the Democrat being a moderate Southerner.

Women voting Republican nearly happened in 2004, and could easily happen in a good year for the Republican party.


Clinton and Gore were moderate southerners and they lost the white men vote. I think the women vote for the GOP will happen when a pro-choice Republican comes or moderate such as the Maine senators get nominated as the Republican presidential nomination.
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DS0816
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2011, 09:01:14 PM »
White men voting for Democrats would be a one-sided Electoral College blowout.

(Let's see it happen in 2012!)
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2011, 09:56:42 PM »
Since men are (necessarily) almost exactly as Republican-leaning as women are Democratic-leaning, and whites more Republican than non-whites with no indication of this changing any time soon, what you're really asking is whether a huge Democratic landslide is more likely soon than a modest Republican victory.

In 2008, women were about D+3, while white men were about R+11. If these stay the same (in reality, white men will probably become more Republican relative to the national average simply due to minority growth), this means a Democrat would need to win about 61% of the popular vote to win white men (probably a tad less due to a "ceiling" on minority vote shares), while a Republican would need to win about 53% of the popular vote to win women. I don't think Democrats are strong enough even with an incumbent President for the former to be more likely.
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UpcomingYouthvoter
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« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2011, 09:10:30 AM »
« Edited: May 22, 2011, 09:14:52 AM by UpcomingYouthvoter »
Quote from: DS0816 on May 21, 2011, 09:01:14 PM
White men voting for Democrats would be a one-sided Electoral College blowout.

(Let's see it happen in 2012!)


hahahahaha
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Bo
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« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2011, 05:52:31 PM »
Reagan won women in 1984, and Bush Sr. might have won women in 1988. Also, Bush Jr. almost won women in 2004. In contrast, the last time Dems won the white male vote was in 1964. Thus, based on historical trends, I'd say a majority of women voting for the GOP is likely to happen sooner.
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DS0816
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« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2011, 06:10:35 PM »
Quote from: Beau on May 22, 2011, 05:52:31 PM
Reagan won women in 1984, and Bush Sr. might have won women in 1988. Also, Bush Jr. almost won women in 2004. In contrast, the last time Dems won the white male vote was in 1964. Thus, based on historical trends, I'd say a majority of women voting for the GOP is likely to happen sooner.

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/presidential/presidential_election.html
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