I don't expect Sherrod Brown to be re-elected by 10+ points unless there's a Republican meltdown of some kind. Right now the polls may have Brown winning by large margins but that's because no one knows who the Republican will be, not because Brown is popular. The reality is that his ideology doesn't match Ohio's very well. Heck, a few people probably have him mixed up with Scott Brown!
Lee Fisher was leading in the polls by a good margin until a couple months before the 2010 election and no one really knew who Rob Portman was. The Republicans have a fine bench in Ohio and shouldn't have much trouble finding a decent candidate. I expect this to end up a very close election and Ohio will elect a Senator of the same party as it votes for the white house, whichever that may be.
No, Brown is winning because voters are furious about SB5 and because of the Republican field (also Brown's a strong campaigner). Mary Taylor is too closely tied to Kasich to beat Brown in 2012. Josh Mandel is regarded (rightfully so) as an extremist (and there's the hyper-islamophobic ad he ran against Boyce, who isn't even Muslim). Jim Jordan doesn't seem too interested anymore and is probably to right-wing anyway. Ken Blackwell...well...is Ken Blackwell
LaTourette isn't going to run b/c redistricting won't cause him problems. The Republican party's best bet by far was Tiberi and he isn't running. When Republicans have this much trouble finding a candidate to run in Ohio against a solidly liberal Senator, it means that the Senator is thought to be leading for reasons beyond simple name recognition.
