Canadian Election Results Thread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:12:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Canadian Election Results Thread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 145743 times)
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,656


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« on: May 08, 2011, 11:20:03 AM »
« edited: May 08, 2011, 11:43:34 AM by The Vorlon »

There are really three stories about this election the media, and most folks, seem to have missed actually.

The first story is how truly dominant the Tories have become in non-Quebec Canada.

Rest of  Canada (Canada - Quebec)

Tories:           5,204,751 votes
Dippers:         2,879,991   votes
Grits:              2,244,758 votes

In Non-Quebec Canada, the Tory vote actually exceeded the combined Grit + Dipper vote. (!)

The second story the media has missed is how fairly evenly the Grit vote in Ontario split between the Tories and the Dippers.

The Dippers increased their Ontario vote by about 485,000 votes, the increase in Tory vote was not that far behind at about an increase of 435,000. - A bit more of the Grit vote went to the Dippers, but is was far less one sided that many would suppose.

Back in the 90's when the "Unite the Right" folks were trying to get the PC and Reform parties to merge they always assumed that the "Unite the Right" vote would equal the PC + Reform vote, they were wrong, just as the Unite the left folks now thing the "Unite the Left" vote will equal the Dippers + Grits.

A final story that has been missed is how the Tories could, at least in theory, pursue a F%$K Quebec strategy if they wanted to.

The Tories won 161 seats outside of Quebec - an outright majority.  When the new census comes in, there will likely be ~~about~~ 30 new seats added, all of them in Tory friendly Ontario, BC, and Alberta.

If the Tories were to "reallocate" the current $ 11 Billion annual subsidy from the rest of Canada to Quebec, combined with an increase in the proportion of non-Quebec seats in Parliament, this could be a viable strategy.

The NDP, with half+ of it's caucus being from Quebec could be marginalized as, effectively, the "new bloq" and the more the NDP complained about Quebec no longer being subsidized, the stronger the Tories would become in English Canada...

Note:

the formula proposed by the Tories in 2010 would have allocated the following additional seats

Ontario + 18
Alberta +5
BC + 7

All other provinces would remain the same

http://www.democraticreform.gc.ca/index.asp?lang=eng&page=news-comm&doc=news-comm/20100401




         
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,656


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2011, 01:40:55 PM »


Washington: Rejecting Dino Rossi since 2004


A classic signature if ever there was one....
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,656


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2011, 05:40:45 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2011, 05:44:39 PM by The Vorlon »

Vorlon, the problem in you theory is that you think to assume the Tories will always remain at this level in Anglo Canada. What you seem to consider a realignment could very well be a temporary surge that could go away as soon at it has come. What if Tories won outside Quebec, but by a more reasonable margin (say 38% instead of 48%) ? They could possibly win a narrow majority in Anglo Canada, but still get trounced in Québec and thus be a minority overall. If the NDP retains its domination on Québec and makes even only small inroads outside, it could very well come to power.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but let's not be too categorical.

In politics, all things are fleeting...My theory is 100% absolutely correct, until it is wrong.... Smiley

That being said, i do think an Ontario/Western Canada political axis has a chance to survive because it is a logical alliance based upon shared interest and positions within Canada.

Western Canada is the economic engine that drives the nation, and is likely to be so for the foreseeable future, Ontario, while perhaps not the leader, at least is not an economic anchor - with enlightened leadership they have a good shot at a return to growth and prosperity.

A set of low tax, pro-growth policies are generally in alignment with the interest of both Ontario and Western Canada, while the opposite economic philosophy of high taxes and a greater role for the state are not.

To the degree that Canada as a nation embarks upon large national projects and programs, these programs will be disproportionately paid for by The West and Ontario, and the additional taxation levied on the West and Ontario will accrue to the benefit of (mostly) Quebec. - This is just an economic reality.

I would argue that the West and Ontario are natural allies or at least not natural enemies in the way the The West and Quebec are.

Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.025 seconds with 12 queries.