Canadian Election Results Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 29, 2021, 04:39:57 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Canadian Election Results Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 35 36 37 38 39 [40] 41 42 43 44 45
Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 124536 times)
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,067
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #975 on: June 19, 2011, 06:04:56 PM »

The Purgs were underestimated in 2008, so there's also a definite 'shy Tory' or something element in there.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,667


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #976 on: June 19, 2011, 06:17:07 PM »

2.  The NDP is unable to appeal to both its Quebec caucus and Western caucus so their support blows up in their face much the way the Mulroney PCs did who tried to do the same thing so the Liberals once again are the main alternative and when people finally get tired of the Tories, they turn to the Liberals.

There are a couple of differences here. The first is that the NDP is no longer a Western party in any meaningful sense; its base of support has shifted entirely, although it remains the only real alternative in most of the West. The second is that the NDP is constituted on an ideological basis, which the Mulroney PCs never had. There are no right-wing NDP MPs who have no real business being in the party; the NDP has always been a social-democratic party, whether its support come from the West or the East. Violent internal spats are far less likely as a result.

Additionally, the NDP is not in government, and such ideological fractures only come to the fore when a party is in government (and thus has to make decisions).

And by the time the NDP wins government, if they do, the Liberals will already be hopelessly defunct and without the finances to regain power or influence.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,708
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #977 on: June 19, 2011, 07:37:56 PM »

2.  The NDP is unable to appeal to both its Quebec caucus and Western caucus so their support blows up in their face much the way the Mulroney PCs did who tried to do the same thing so the Liberals once again are the main alternative and when people finally get tired of the Tories, they turn to the Liberals.

There are a couple of differences here. The first is that the NDP is no longer a Western party in any meaningful sense; its base of support has shifted entirely, although it remains the only real alternative in most of the West. The second is that the NDP is constituted on an ideological basis, which the Mulroney PCs never had. There are no right-wing NDP MPs who have no real business being in the party; the NDP has always been a social-democratic party, whether its support come from the West or the East. Violent internal spats are far less likely as a result.

Additionally, the NDP is not in government, and such ideological fractures only come to the fore when a party is in government (and thus has to make decisions).

And by the time the NDP wins government, if they do, the Liberals will already be hopelessly defunct and without the finances to regain power or influence.
  Not totally true.  Remember the Canadian Alliance squabbles under Stockwell Day or what about the infighting in the NDP in BC which forced Carole James out despite the fact they were leading in the polls at that time so it can happen in opposition parties too.  Now true Jack Layton seems much more apt at keeping his caucus united than either Carole James or Stockwell Day, but he has also has a much larger and more regionally diverse caucus than he did before.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,708
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #978 on: June 19, 2011, 07:41:35 PM »

On Polling:

A pollster’s painful reckoning: ‘How could I have screwed up so badly?'

Frank Graves, the guy who runs Ekos, studied how he went wrong.  Among his findings, somewhat counter-intuitively, the cell phone sample INCREASED error.  That's because cell phone-only users - generally younger folks - didn't show up to vote.

Canadian pollsters never did seem to have much of a likely voter screen - but a separate Ekos weighting using more of a screen gave better result.

Full report here:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/accurate_polling_flawed_forecast.pdf

I haven't read it yet.
  That might explain why Nanos which only polls landlines was closer as if you took the Sunday results only, Nanos was actually pretty close to spot on.  A better solution is not to do away with polling cell phones, but rather use the method most US pollsters use.  In the US only those who say they are likely to vote or will definitely vote are included and if this method was used I suspect the numbers would have been closer to what they really were.  Also I would take that into account when weighting the numbers as most pollsters don't report based on the number who say they will vote a certain party, rather than weight each demographic based on what percentage of the population they represent so if seniors are overrepresented in the poll and younger voters under, each younger voters' response would count for more than 1 and each senior less than 1.  The problem here is certain demographics are more likely to show up than others.
Logged
Xi Variant
exnaderite
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,527


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #979 on: June 19, 2011, 07:44:10 PM »

The Purgs were underestimated in 2008, so there's also a definite 'shy Tory' or something element in there.

The Liberals were underestimated by 2-3% in 2004 and 2006, so perhaps it's a shy government factor.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,708
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #980 on: June 19, 2011, 07:46:58 PM »

The Purgs were underestimated in 2008, so there's also a definite 'shy Tory' or something element in there.

The Liberals were underestimated by 2-3% in 2004 and 2006, so perhaps it's a shy government factor.
  True enough.  It also seems much of the underestimation was in Ontario is in all of the past four elections, the results in other parts of Canada weren't that far off or at least it could be attributed to a large margin of error in places like Atlantic Canada.  The problem is a 2-3% swing in Ontario is 15-20 seats thus results in a very different looking parliament.  One blogger mentioned this might be a Rae syndrome otherwise they remember how Bob Rae was accidentally elected in 1990 and thus want to avoid a simliar mistake so they stick with the devil they know rather than the one they don't.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,708
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #981 on: June 19, 2011, 08:39:21 PM »

Here is the BQ over 35% (only 5 such ridings including Gilles Duceppe's former riding)



BQ over 30% 22 ridings



Interestingly enough the Bloc Quebecois probably could have held their official party status with the same vote percentage had the Liberals and Conservatives done better and this came at the expense of the NDP.  In Ahuntsic it was a tight three way race with the NDP nearly winning and Liberals not far behind.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown here as I suspect the Liberals won most of the Allophone polls and the Bloc Quebecois probably more in the heavily Francophone areas while the NDP more in the mixed areas.  In Richmond-Arthabaska this was more the luck of where the riding was.  The NDP dominated the Estrie region while the Tories the Appalaches-Chaudieres and this riding is right on the border between the two regions.  I wouldn't be surprised if the BQ actually won relatively few polls here and rather it was orange in the western half of the riding and blue in the eastern half and the Bloc Quebecois won by coming in second throughout the riding.  These two are definitely one's I look forward to seeing.  I also think in Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Metapadia, many of Nancy Charest's personal votes would have gone NDP had she not run thus partly why the NDP did so poorly here and the Bloc held this one.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,708
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #982 on: June 19, 2011, 09:22:16 PM »

Here is BQ over 25% 37 ridings



Ironically at the beginning of the campaign this was generally considered the worse case scenario for the BQ.  This just shows how unpredictable Quebec politics can be.

BQ over 20% 48 ridings



Otherwise they got over 20% in fewer ridings than they won in 1993, 2004, 2006, and 2008.  I guess a lot of the Bloc Quebecois vote were those parked there due to lack of alternatives and once one arrived they switched.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,708
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #983 on: June 20, 2011, 12:35:56 AM »

Here is the BQ over 15%, 59 such ridings.



Ironically 59 seats back in 2006 prior to the Tory breakthrough and even in 2004 and 2006 was not considered that far fetched for the BQ. 

BQ over 10%, 66 seats



BQ over 5% 73 ridings (only Lac-St. Louis and Mount Royal were below 5%



If I am not mistaken, I don't believe the BQ has ever gotten over 10% in Mount Royal, otherwise they probably run a paper candidate here anyways.  Likewise it was the NDP's worst riding in Quebec too and even Mulroney in the 80s did rather poorly here despite doing well in Quebec.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,264
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #984 on: June 20, 2011, 03:35:01 PM »

The NDP isn't that divided, 98% of delegates voted no on a leadership review
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,708
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #985 on: June 20, 2011, 04:54:14 PM »

The NDP isn't that divided, 98% of delegates voted no on a leadership review
  I agree they are pretty united now, but things can change.  More I was thinking about the voters that if they pander too heavily to Quebec, this could cost them in English Canada, especially in BC and maybe even in Ontario especially outside the GTA.  By the same time Quebec are fickle voters who can switch en masse on a moment's notice so anything from winning even more seats in Quebec to losing almost all them is possible.  You don't need to get into government for this to happen, just look what happened to the ADQ.  Since most NDP voters in Quebec were first time NDP voters, it would naive to assume they will stay with the NDP, but also naive for the other parties to assume they won't.  In English Canada, the NDP won 44 seats which is only one more than Ed Broadbent got in 1988 and never mind as a percentage it is less since there were 220 seats in English Canada in 1988, now there are 233 seats.  Also in 1984, the NDP beat the Liberals in English Canada by a similiar number of seats yet the Liberals came back in 1988 to a stronger opposition and a majority government in 1993 so they can do the same.  It will take more than one election, but my point, is the Liberals are not dead and out yet by any stretch of the imagination.  In fact in both 1958 and 1984, many talked about the death of the Liberal Party yet both times they were wrong and I think they could be wrong again.  After all the NDP only got 9 seats in 1993 and they didn't merge like the PCs did so if they can come back from that to where they are now, I don't see why the Liberals cannot as they are in much better shape than the NDP was in 1993.
Logged
Xi Variant
exnaderite
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,527


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #986 on: June 20, 2011, 09:23:56 PM »

Can you make a similar map for the Greens, just for reference?
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,708
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #987 on: June 20, 2011, 10:01:50 PM »

Can you make a similar map for the Greens, just for reference?
  I could do so, but it could take time.  I know they only got above 10% in a handful of ridings.  If you could list off the ridings I could do one certainly.  I know they got 46% in Elizabeth May's riding, but I don't believe they got above 20% in any other riding and very few above 10%.
Logged
Xi Variant
exnaderite
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,527


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #988 on: June 20, 2011, 10:17:01 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2011, 10:20:51 PM by 猫主席 »

Can you make a similar map for the Greens, just for reference?
 I could do so, but it could take time.  I know they only got above 10% in a handful of ridings.  If you could list off the ridings I could do one certainly.  I know they got 46% in Elizabeth May's riding, but I don't believe they got above 20% in any other riding and very few above 10%.

You're right. Apart from Saanich-Gulf Islands only in Dufferin-Caledon, Calgary Centre-North, Victoria, and Vancouver Centre did they get over 10%. In Bruce Grey-Owen Sound they had 9.99%.
Logged
Smid
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,152
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #989 on: June 20, 2011, 10:21:18 PM »

Can you make a similar map for the Greens, just for reference?
  I could do so, but it could take time.  I know they only got above 10% in a handful of ridings.  If you could list off the ridings I could do one certainly.  I know they got 46% in Elizabeth May's riding, but I don't believe they got above 20% in any other riding and very few above 10%.

You're right. Apart from Saanich-Gulf Islands only in Dufferin-Caledon did they get over 10%. In Bruce Grey-Owen Sound they had 9.99%.

I may be wrong, but I have the Greens at 18.91% in Yukon, 15.44% in Vancouver Centre, 14.69% in Dufferin - Caldon, 13.07% in Calgary Centre-North, 11.61% in Victoria and 10.68% in Okanagan - Shuswap.
Logged
trebor204
TREBOR204
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 384


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #990 on: June 20, 2011, 10:33:31 PM »

% of Green Support (Over 5%)

Saanich–Gulf Islands   46.26%
Yukon   18.91%
Vancouver Centre   15.44%
Dufferin–Caledon   14.65%
Calgary Centre-North   13.02%
Victoria   11.60%
Calgary Centre   11.02%
Okanagan–Shuswap   10.69%
Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound   9.98%
Calgary West   9.43%
Okanagan–Coquihalla   9.39%
Kelowna–Lake Country   8.74%
Esquimalt–Juan de Fuca   8.35%
Parry Sound–Muskoka   8.14%
Nanaimo–Cowichan   7.83%
Vancouver East   7.65%
West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country   7.28%
Winnipeg Centre   7.05%
Wild Rose   6.99%
Nanaimo–Alberni   6.83%
Toronto–Danforth   6.46%
Calgary Southeast   6.45%
British Columbia Southern Interior   6.41%
Wellington–Halton Hills   6.37%
Guelph   6.29%
Cariboo–Prince George   6.21%
Calgary–Nose Hill   6.05%
Nipissing–Timiskaming   6.02%
Simcoe North   6.02%
Prince George–Peace River   5.97%
Kootenay–Columbia   5.93%
Calgary East   5.91%
Barrie   5.77%
Brandon–Souris   5.73%
Portage–Lisgar   5.64%
South Surrey–White Rock–Cloverdale   5.52%
Chilliwack–Fraser Canyon   5.49%
Langley   5.42%
Simcoe–Grey   5.41%
York–Simcoe   5.39%
Durham   5.39%
Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo   5.38%
Vancouver Quadra   5.35%
Toronto Centre   5.33%
Cumberland–Colchester–Musquodoboit Valley   5.33%
Calgary Southwest   5.24%
Leeds–Grenville   5.20%
Red Deer   5.20%
Ottawa–Vanier   5.18%
New Brunswick Southwest   5.17%
Yellowhead   5.15%
Vegreville–Wainwright   5.08%
Vancouver Island North   5.08%
Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock   5.07%
North Vancouver   5.04%
Ottawa Centre   5.04%
Ancaster–Dundas–Flamborough–Westdale   5.01%
Trinity–Spadina   5.00%
Logged
Xi Variant
exnaderite
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,527


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #991 on: June 20, 2011, 11:57:00 PM »

Interesting that none of the above ridings are in Quebec. There's the perception that the Green Party is one of upper-middle-class WASPs who can afford to eat organic and buy fair trade (but then again that's true with all Green Parties).
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,571
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #992 on: June 21, 2011, 12:38:16 AM »

Interesting that none of the above ridings are in Quebec. There's the perception that the Green Party is one of upper-middle-class WASPs who can afford to eat organic and buy fair trade (but then again that's true with all Green Parties).

I think it perhaps has more to do with the catastrophic French of May.
And I suppose than voters which could have leaned Green are exactly the kind of voters which started the NDP surge.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,067
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #993 on: June 21, 2011, 07:46:57 AM »

Interesting that none of the above ridings are in Quebec. There's the perception that the Green Party is one of upper-middle-class WASPs who can afford to eat organic and buy fair trade (but then again that's true with all Green Parties).

The Greeens already did awfully in Quebec in 2008. Most of their weak support is concentrated in the West Island.
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 39,850
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #994 on: June 21, 2011, 12:23:28 PM »

I would imagine that one of the reasons the Greens have always done so poorly in Quebec is that the NDP (before its breakthrough, of course) filled the leftish protest vote niche.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,067
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #995 on: June 21, 2011, 12:42:50 PM »

Also, the Greenies are pretty much an overwhelmingly English party.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,708
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #996 on: June 21, 2011, 09:06:18 PM »

I will try to work on the Green Party map this evening.  Also if anybody has the data for Independents that would be great.  I know Andre Arthur in Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier and James Ford in Edmonton-Sherwood Park got in the high 20s, Hec Cloutier in Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke in the high teens and Helena Guergis in Simcoe-Grey in the low teens.  Any others over 5%?
Logged
Smid
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,152
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #997 on: June 21, 2011, 09:18:10 PM »

I will try to work on the Green Party map this evening.  Also if anybody has the data for Independents that would be great.  I know Andre Arthur in Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier and James Ford in Edmonton-Sherwood Park got in the high 20s, Hec Cloutier in Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke in the high teens and Helena Guergis in Simcoe-Grey in the low teens.  Any others over 5%?

There were five ridings in which an independent received >5% of the vote:

Edmonton - Sherwood Park 29.50% (16,263 votes out of 55,136)
Portneuf - Jacques-Cartier 27.82% (14,594 votes out of 52,468)
Renfrew - Nipissing - Pembroke 18.70% (9,611 votes out of 51,398)
Simcoe - Grey 13.54% (8,714 votes out of 64,373)
Chambly - Borduas 11.33% (7,843 votes out of 69,243)

Those results are based on any judicial recounts, or if no recount was required, the validated results.

The independent in Madawaska - Restigouche received above 1,000 votes (1,290 out of 34,997, or 3.69%), and independents received >1% in another six ridings.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,708
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #998 on: June 21, 2011, 09:33:34 PM »

As promised, here is the Green Party.

Green Party over 45% (only Elizabeth May's riding off course)



Greens over 15% 3 ridings



I am little perplexed why Yukon went so heavily Green.  Anybody know about the candidate there.  I know for Vancouver Centre, the candidate was Adrienne Carr who was the former provincial Green Party leader so that one makes sense.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,708
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #999 on: June 21, 2011, 09:41:18 PM »

Here is the Green Party over 10% (only 8 such ridings)



Green Party over 5% (57 seats)



Interestingly enough it seems BC outside the Lower Mainland, Calgary, and Central Ontario are the Green strongspots.  Ontario is weird as the strongest Green ridings are either downtown Toronto where the Conservatives are weakest or Central Ontario which is the most Conservative part of the province.  I wonder if strategic voting played a part here as in Downtown Toronto there was no chance at a Conservative win while in Central Ontario it was a foregone conclusion the Tories would win so no need to vote strategically.  Also Calgary seems awfully strong for the Greens but not so much Edmonton.  Interestingly enough the Liberals also did better in Calgary than Edmonton while the NDP was much stronger in Edmonton so it seems the centre-left vote united behind the NDP in Edmonton but was more evenly split in Calgary.  Perhaps it was the fiscal policies as the Greens are fairly fiscally conservative and Calgary seems to be quite a bit more fiscally conservative than Edmonton.  In Manitoba two were Conservative strongholds while one was an NDP stronghold so not ridings where there was a risk of vote splitting while the two Atlantic Canada ridings were both Conservative strongholds.  I suspect the Greens did poorly in Newfoundland & Labrador partly due to their stance on the seal hunt as I believe they are the only party opposed to it, and opposing it is political suicide in Newfoundland & Labrador.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 35 36 37 38 39 [40] 41 42 43 44 45  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.078 seconds with 13 queries.