Canadian Election Results Thread
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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 123576 times)
DL
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« Reply #800 on: May 18, 2011, 08:15:15 AM »

There is a lot of discussion of how the parties fared among different religious groups based on that Ipsos exit poll. One thing i wish we knew from the exit poll is their actual sample sizes among Jews, Muslims, Sikhs, Buddhists etc... because each of these religions is less than 1% of the entire Canadian population - so i wonder how statistically significant the exit poll is when trying to project vote intention in these micro-communities.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #801 on: May 18, 2011, 08:48:48 AM »

The answer is that they aren't, but that people like data so much they are prepared to suspend disbelief...
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Hash
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« Reply #802 on: May 18, 2011, 10:29:19 AM »

John Baird as Foreign Minister. What a joke.

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DL
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« Reply #803 on: May 18, 2011, 11:49:08 AM »

John Baird will make a very good "minister of having as many affairs as possible in foreign countries where he can be anonymous".
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #804 on: May 18, 2011, 12:23:16 PM »

For those who don't know, John Baird is known for being the debater in Parliament WHO ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE SPEAKING IN ALLCAPS. I find it amusing now he will be representing us in those subtle situations.
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Franzl
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« Reply #805 on: May 18, 2011, 01:57:39 PM »

*sigh*

There are six pages of job postings on the NDP website, and not a single one that a non bilingual person can apply to.

I will never get to work on the Hill!

Why don't you learn French?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #806 on: May 18, 2011, 04:34:01 PM »

*sigh*

There are six pages of job postings on the NDP website, and not a single one that a non bilingual person can apply to.

I will never get to work on the Hill!

Why don't you learn French?

Lack of patience, mostly. But even a basic level of French wouldn't be good for those kinds of offices. I would have to be full on bilingual :/
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #807 on: May 18, 2011, 10:53:29 PM »

The emphasis on regional balance is somewhat worrying. I get the feeling that if the Conservatives won a single seat with a total moron in Montreal, said moron would nonetheless be a shoo-in for Cabinet.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #808 on: May 18, 2011, 10:54:43 PM »

I don't see how that's worrying; there are a lot of total morons in cabinet.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #809 on: May 18, 2011, 11:37:20 PM »

The emphasis on regional balance is somewhat worrying. I get the feeling that if the Conservatives won a single seat with a total moron in Montreal, said moron would nonetheless be a shoo-in for Cabinet.

Usually most parties figure out which seats are most likely to fall to them in areas they are shut out and thus run stronger candidates.  In the case of Toronto, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, and York Centre were the most likely for the Tories whereas ridings like Don Valley East, Scarborough Centre, or Willowdale weren't so thats why they had stronger candidates in the former in the event they did win only a seat in Toronto.  It is true in Newfoundland & Labrador, their one seat was a surprise, but also they did have a strong candidate and it is unlikely they would have picked up Labrador with an average candidate.  The same for the Liberals as I believe in the past two elections, they've fielded strong candidates in Edmonton Centre as if they were to form government and win only one seat in Alberta, that would likely be it.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #810 on: May 18, 2011, 11:47:19 PM »

I don't see how that's worrying; there are a lot of total morons in cabinet.

I was considering writing something like "actually intellectually challenged as opposed to just disliked on partisan grounds", but that would be long and you'd still probably think there were some.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #811 on: May 18, 2011, 11:49:51 PM »

I don't see how that's worrying; there are a lot of total morons in cabinet.

I was considering writing something like "actually intellectually challenged as opposed to just disliked on partisan grounds", but that would be long and you'd still probably think there were some.
Indeed I do.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #812 on: May 19, 2011, 02:15:47 AM »

If Toronto is combined with York and East York


Old Toronto (Incl York and East York)
NDP - 165,703 - 43.6%
Lib - 117,069 - 30.8%
CPC - 77,060 - 20.3%
Grn - 17,483 - 4.6%
Oth - 3,010 - 0.9%

North York
CPC - 112,946 - 40.1%
Lib - 108,453 - 38.5%
NDP - 52,934 - 18.8%
Grn - 6,380 - 2.3%
Oth - 824 - 0.3%

Scarborough
Lib - 77,800 - 34.2%
CPC - 76,840 - 33.8%
NDP - 66,250 - 29.1%
Grn - 5,986 - 2.6%
Oth - 617 - 0.3%

Etobicoke
Lib - 54,346 - 39.0%
CPC - 54,019 - 38.8%
NDP - 26,335 - 18.9%
Grn - 3,605 - 2.6%
Oth - 924 - 0.7%

TOTAL CITY OF TORONTO
Lib - 357,668 - 34.8%
CPC - 320,865 - 31.2%
NDP - 311,222 - 30.3%
Grn - 33,454 - 3.3%
OTh - 5,375 - 0.5%
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Holmes
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« Reply #813 on: May 19, 2011, 06:18:42 AM »

Thank you!

Also, I'm kinda disappointed Leitch wasn't chosen for a cabinet role. Of all the idiots there is in the caucus, at least she's an actual doctor.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #814 on: May 19, 2011, 06:43:37 AM »

The NDP's previous high in SRR was 14.6%. I'm going to be nice and round that to 15%.

The NDP took 40.5% this election. If they had taken 15% (and if the Liberals had, as you may expect, picked up the remainder) then Scarborough would look like this:

Scarborough
Lib - 89,678 - 39.4%
CPC - 76,840 - 33.8%
NDP - 54,372 - 23.9%
Grn - 5,986 - 2.6%
Oth - 617 - 0.3%
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Hash
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« Reply #815 on: May 19, 2011, 07:57:43 AM »

I don't see how that's worrying; there are a lot of total morons in cabinet.

I was considering writing something like "actually intellectually challenged as opposed to just disliked on partisan grounds", but that would be long and you'd still probably think there were some.
Indeed I do.

ex: Maxime Bernier
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #816 on: May 19, 2011, 08:21:01 AM »

With Bramlea-Malton split in half...

Mississauga
C - 127,187 - 43.5%
L - 103,490 - 35.4%
N - 52,582 - 18.0%
G - 8,154 - 2.8%
O - 856 - 0.3%

Brampton
C - 62,991 - 44.0%
L - 44,560 - 31.1%
N - 30,873 - 21.6%
G - 4,023 - 2.8%
O - 732 - 0.5%

URBAN PEEL REGION (IE the two above combined)
C - 190,178 - 43.7%
L - 148,050 - 34.0%
N - 83,455 - 19.2%
G - 12,177 - 2.8%
O - 1,599 - 0.4%

Durham Region (not including brock)
C - 129,407 - 51.0%
N - 58,851 - 23.2%
L - 53,587 - 21.1%
G - 10,406 - 4.1%
O - 1,276 - 0.5%

York Region
C - 209,664 - 52.0%
L - 113,990 - 28.3%
N - 63,577 -15.8%
G - 12,970 - 3.2%
O - 2,806 - 0.7%
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #817 on: May 19, 2011, 08:39:45 AM »

Could you post the seat count in each region, too? It looks like the Conservatives had a very efficient vote allocation.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #818 on: May 19, 2011, 09:11:15 AM »

Teddy your boundary between North York and "Toronto" isn't right, even allowing that the latter includes York and East York.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #819 on: May 19, 2011, 07:49:36 PM »

Could you post the seat count in each region, too? It looks like the Conservatives had a very efficient vote allocation.

Here it is by province.  Actually the Tories got above 50% in 107 out of the 166 seats they won so there were many areas where they won by big margins.  If you take Quebec out of the picture they got 48% in English Canada.  Off course much of that has to do with the fact they are the sole party on the right whereas the left is far more divided.

NL  Lib 4 NDP 2 CON 1 Lib 38%, NDP 33%, CON 28%
NS  CON 4 LIB 4 NDP 3  CON 37% NDP 30% LIB 29%
PEI LIB 3 CON 1  CON 41% LIB 41% NDP 15% (despite winning only one seat the Conservatives actually got 173 votes more than the Liberals in PEI)
NB CON 8 NDP 1 LIB 1 CON 44% NDP 30% LIB 23%
QC NDP 59 LIB 7 CON 5 BQ 4 NDP 43% BQ 23% CON 17% LIB 14%
ON CON 73 NDP 22 LIB 11 CON 44% NDP 26% LIB 25% (Note, Etobicoke Centre which the Conservatives won by 25 votes over the Liberals is still in the process of a recount)
MB CON 11 NDP 2 LIB 1 CON 54% NDP 26% LIB 16%
SK CON 13 LIB 1 CON 56% NDP 32% LIB 9%
AB CON 27 NDP 1 CON 67% NDP 17% LIB 9%
BC CON 21 NDP 12 LIB 2 GRN 1 CON 46% NDP 33% LIB 13% GRN 7%
NORTH CON 2 (YK and NU), NDP 1 (NT)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #820 on: May 19, 2011, 07:56:14 PM »

Actually the Conservatives were the only party to get above 50% in the majority of ridings they won.  I believe the NDP got above 50% in around 40% of the ridings they won, while the Liberals in only 2 seats (both in Newfoundland & Labrador) and the BQ and Greens in none.  Even if you go by region, the Conservatives got over 50% (this excludes rounding up, otherwise 49.9% is not counted), 7 seats in Atlantic Canada (2 in NS, 4 in NB, and 1 in PEI), 1 seat in Quebec (Maxime Bernier's riding) 40 seats in Ontario, 9 seats in Manitoba, 10 seats in Saskatchewan, 25 seats in Alberta, and 15 seats in British Columbia.  While it is true vote splitting helped the Conservatives in some ridings, they also party won a majority as they didn't have a lot of wasted votes in Quebec where they did quite poorly.  If you only took the ridings they got over 45%, they would have won 134 seats, while 161 seats at over 40%.  At over 30%, they were only 30 ridings in all of English Canada where they got under 30%, but in Quebec it was 65 ridings.  At under 20%, it was only 7 in English Canada, while 55 in Quebec so if there was any divided it was between Quebec and ROC.  Quebec cleary voted for a left wing government while English Canada favoured the right (I consider the Liberals a centrist party so the Conservatives got more than the NDP + Greens by a long shot in English Canada)
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #821 on: May 19, 2011, 10:26:01 PM »

Could you post the seat count in each region, too? It looks like the Conservatives had a very efficient vote allocation.

Here it is by province.  Actually the Tories got above 50% in 107 out of the 166 seats they won so there were many areas where they won by big margins.  If you take Quebec out of the picture they got 48% in English Canada.  Off course much of that has to do with the fact they are the sole party on the right whereas the left is far more divided.

NL  Lib 4 NDP 2 CON 1 Lib 38%, NDP 33%, CON 28%
NS  CON 4 LIB 4 NDP 3  CON 37% NDP 30% LIB 29%
PEI LIB 3 CON 1  CON 41% LIB 41% NDP 15% (despite winning only one seat the Conservatives actually got 173 votes more than the Liberals in PEI)
NB CON 8 NDP 1 LIB 1 CON 44% NDP 30% LIB 23%
QC NDP 59 LIB 7 CON 5 BQ 4 NDP 43% BQ 23% CON 17% LIB 14%
ON CON 73 NDP 22 LIB 11 CON 44% NDP 26% LIB 25% (Note, Etobicoke Centre which the Conservatives won by 25 votes over the Liberals is still in the process of a recount)
MB CON 11 NDP 2 LIB 1 CON 54% NDP 26% LIB 16%
SK CON 13 LIB 1 CON 56% NDP 32% LIB 9%
AB CON 27 NDP 1 CON 67% NDP 17% LIB 9%
BC CON 21 NDP 12 LIB 2 GRN 1 CON 46% NDP 33% LIB 13% GRN 7%
NORTH CON 2 (YK and NU), NDP 1 (NT)

I was talking about those GTA regions, where the Tories did very well without particularly large vote margins. Obviously in Alberta they had a lot of surplus votes.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #822 on: May 19, 2011, 10:33:24 PM »

Teddy your boundary between North York and "Toronto" isn't right, even allowing that the latter includes York and East York.
Where exactly am I wrong?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #823 on: May 20, 2011, 07:01:23 AM »

I was talking about those GTA regions, where the Tories did very well without particularly large vote margins. Obviously in Alberta they had a lot of surplus votes.

Here is what I got by the GTA region.  Actually in the outer suburbs they generally won by pretty big margins, i.e. Jim Flaherty's riding.  In the 905 belt, there were some close ones, but the NDP was generally weak save Bramalea-Gore-Malton and thus the Tories still averaged close to 45% in their pick ups and the Liberals in the high 30s.  Anyways here is the GTA breakdown by region.

Toronto

Liberal 35% 6 seats
Conservative 31% 8.5 seats (Pickering-Scarborough East straddles the boundary of Toronto)
NDP 31% 8 seats

Durham Regional Municipality

Conservative 50% 4.5 seats, i.e. clean sweep
Liberal 23%
NDP 23%

York Regional Municipality

Conservative 52% 6.5 seats (York-Simcoe half in York region and half Simcoe)
Liberal 27% 1 seat (John McCallum was the lone Liberal from the 905 belt)
NDP 17%

Peel Regional Municipality

Conservative 44% 8 seats clean sweep
Liberal 34%
NDP 19%

Halton Regional Municipality

Conservative 54% 3.5 seats, clean sweep (Wellington-Halton Hills split between Halton)
Liberal 26%
NDP 16%

905 belt (excluding Hamilton-Niagara region)

Conservative 49%
Liberal 28%
NDP 19%

GTA

Conservative 41%
Liberal 31%
NDP 24%
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mileslunn
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« Reply #824 on: May 20, 2011, 07:03:57 AM »

It is true in 416, the Tories definitely got some lucky breaks while the Liberals really got some bad breaks there.  In the 905 belt, the Tory wins were pretty large in many cases.  The Peel region is where their vote was very efficient, but in Durham, York, and Halton they got over 50% and won by over 20 points so I wouldn't describe their vote as being efficient here.  The Liberals definitely got screwed over in the GTA big time.  Since their vote wasn't concentrated in any one area, they got a lot of votes which didn't translate into seats.  The NDP was mostly concentrated in the urban core and with a three way split in Scarborough while the Tories were mostly in the suburbs, while they fared poorly in the downtown area.
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