Canadian Election Results Thread
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October 18, 2021, 11:44:42 PM

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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 124253 times)
Torie
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« Reply #750 on: May 11, 2011, 10:44:02 PM »

Why did the NDP do so well in Quebec, while the Bloc collapsed, and why did the Liberals just collapse period?  Just asking.

In the case of the Bloc Quebecois, many in Quebec realized they were useless as sovereignty will be achieved through electing a PQ government provincially and a referendum.  This was not the first close call to being obliterated.  In 2003, it appeared the Liberals under Paul Martin would obliterate the Bloc, but they were revived thanks to the sponsorship scandal.  In 2008, it looked like the Tories would do the same, but their comments on the arts cuts as well as the perception they were too right wing for Quebec saved the Bloc.  This time around there wasn't much to attack the NDP with.  Prior to this election the only thing standing in their way was the fact the NDP favoured a highly centralized government, but they abandoned this in the Sherbrooke declaration.

As for the Liberals, once the NDP pulled ahead in Quebec, many on the left who were more concerned with defeating Harper than voting for any particular party switched to the NDP.  Likewise many Blue Liberals, particularly in Ontario were spooked by the thought of an NDP lead coalition so they bolted to the Tories.  The Liberals actually ran a decent campaign, but being in the centre and having a leader who was less popular than either Layton or Harper made them vulnerable.  Likewise Ignatieff didn't perform that well in the debates.  Had he done well in the debates, I suspect the party would have done much better than they did.

Thanks for what appears on its face at least (since I know nothing about the ins and outs of Canadian political doings), appears to be a most cogent analysis. I appreciate your taking the time to enlighten me. Smiley
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #751 on: May 12, 2011, 09:57:37 AM »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=oXW9wlieZO8

The new MP for Davenport and the re-elected MP for Timmins--James Bay, in a punk band together in 1983.
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Holmes
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« Reply #752 on: May 12, 2011, 04:22:49 PM »

Haha, I have Charlie Angus on my friends list on Facebook, and he's always posting videos like that. Having Cash also in Parliament should be fun. Smiley
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« Reply #753 on: May 12, 2011, 04:32:53 PM »

haha. Awesome. When are the Barenaked Ladies going to run for Parliament? It's proven the NDP can win in Scarborough!
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Holmes
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« Reply #754 on: May 12, 2011, 05:03:38 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2011, 05:05:53 PM by Holmes »

Ruth Ellen Brosseau in her riding.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guCdS1ABm9M
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91sxKz7jLkA

Her French is a bit awkward, but she can speak it.
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« Reply #755 on: May 12, 2011, 05:14:26 PM »

I saw the first clip yesterday. She has been quite the celebrity in this country, to the point that I'd say she's a house hold name.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #756 on: May 12, 2011, 05:20:41 PM »

It also doesn't hurt that she's pretty hot.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #757 on: May 12, 2011, 07:35:34 PM »

It also doesn't hurt that she's pretty hot.

Helena Guergis was pretty hot, yet she lost, so although it might help it doesn't guarantee a win.  Mind you Simcoe-Grey is a pretty staunchly conservative riding to begin with.  In fact it includes much of Simcoe Centre which was the only riding to vote for the Reform Party in 1993, so as long as the right is united they are pretty much assured to win this riding.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #758 on: May 12, 2011, 07:39:25 PM »

Oh I wasn't referring to Brosseau's electoral strength; just that her looks will help add to her 'celebrity' status.  Not everything is always about elections.  Smiley

I wonder if I came close to bumping into her while she was here during the campaign.  Probably not, but you never know.
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« Reply #759 on: May 12, 2011, 09:34:05 PM »

She has a better accent than Harper: http://tvanouvelles.ca/video/940199381001/ruth-ellen-brosseau-en-entrevue-a-tva-nouvelles/
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MaxQue
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« Reply #760 on: May 13, 2011, 10:18:19 PM »

According to Radio-Canada, the NDP won the recount in Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup by 9 votes.

It was won by 105 votes by the Conservatives on election day (but 110 NDP votes were wrongfully added to the Greens). After that correction, NDP lead by 5, leading to a recount.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #761 on: May 13, 2011, 10:48:13 PM »

How did Nipissing-Timiskaming and Etobicoke Centre go?  Considering how poorly the Tories did in Quebec, I suspect if Bernard Genereux won he would get a cabinet post.  With a 9 vote difference, I wonder if they can ask for another recount or what happens next.
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Holmes
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« Reply #762 on: May 13, 2011, 11:08:15 PM »

North Bay is much more Conservative than the rest of northern Ontario. Plus the complete Liberal collapse outside (and even inside) of urban centers. Still, Nipissing-Timiskaming was fairly close. As for Etobicoke Centre, eh... Rob Ford won it handily. Plus Liberal collapse. And maybe the Conservatives' constant attacks against Ignatieff might have played a part as well. He never really seemed to win convincingly.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #763 on: May 14, 2011, 06:00:54 AM »

I dun make this
http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?hl=en&geocode=&ie=UTF8&vps=1&jsv=338b&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004a339e65b69873c792
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MaxQue
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« Reply #764 on: May 14, 2011, 01:23:04 PM »

Also, a elector asked a recount in Winnipeg-North.

Lamoureux, a Liberal, won it by only 45 votes over the NDP.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #765 on: May 14, 2011, 09:38:20 PM »

Also, a elector asked a recount in Winnipeg-North.

Lamoureux, a Liberal, won it by only 45 votes over the NDP.

I doubt it will change, but if the NDP wins the recount there, that means the Liberals were shut out of two provinces and only won one seat in another two.
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DL
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« Reply #766 on: May 14, 2011, 09:42:30 PM »

The recount confirmed the NDP win by 9 votes over the Conservative incumbent in the rural Quebec riding of Montmagny-L'Islet-Riveire du loup-Kamouraska - so Tories now have 166 seats and the NDP 103
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mileslunn
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« Reply #767 on: May 14, 2011, 09:58:06 PM »

The recount confirmed the NDP win by 9 votes over the Conservative incumbent in the rural Quebec riding of Montmagny-L'Islet-Riveire du loup-Kamouraska - so Tories now have 166 seats and the NDP 103

I wonder who they will bring into cabinet now with only 5 seats in Quebec.  I have a feeling we will see Maxime Bernier return to cabinet after the drubbing they got in Quebec.
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« Reply #768 on: May 15, 2011, 04:27:16 PM »

Some "exit polling" data:

http://www.vancouversun.com/life/religion%20split%20federal%20vote%20poll/4748583/story.html

Kind of strange, if you ask me. How could the NDP be above average with both visible minorities and non visible minorities?
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DL
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« Reply #769 on: May 15, 2011, 04:32:55 PM »

I think that's visible minorities compared to non-visible minorities among immigrants. Even a "non-visible minority" is still not the majority!
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mileslunn
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« Reply #770 on: May 15, 2011, 08:34:05 PM »

I think that's visible minorities compared to non-visible minorities among immigrants. Even a "non-visible minority" is still not the majority!

I suspect the Conservatives probably won mostly amongst those who were immigrants from Europe and the Far East, while the NDP more amongst South Asians, Middle Easterners, Africa, Caribbean, and Latin America.  Also the Catholic number is interesting as most polls showed the Tories well ahead amongst them, mind you that might be in English Canada only where I am pretty sure they got well over 30% and beat the NDP by a sizeable margin.  Also immigrants would include those born in Germany, Netherlands, and UK and I suspect the Tories did well amongst those.  It also looks like they gained significantly amongst the Polish and Italian community, while the Greek community is difficult to tell, but the Portuguese community appears to have swung towards the NDP, although the Tories probably won much of those in the suburbs however.  As for the NDP and Tories being closer amongst those born in Canada, lets remember the highest percentage of this group is in Quebec where the NDP handidly beat the Tories and Atlantic Canada where the results pretty much matched the national numbers.  Generally visible minorities in most countries tend to favour parties on the left as opposed to the right.  In fact I would argue the Tories perform much better amongst visible minorities than their right wing counterparts in many other countries do.  No surprise the Tories got clobbered amongst Muslim voters or how well they did amongst Jewish voters although as recently as 2006 the numbers were the exact reverse amongst Jewish voters.  Probably explains why Thornhill swung so heavily in favour of them and why they picked up traditional Liberal strongholds like York Centre and Eglinton-Lawrence while came awfully close to winning Mount Royal.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #771 on: May 15, 2011, 10:54:53 PM »

It's quite fun to read some of the Wikipedia articles on regional results. Some fun ones:

Montérégie

Every single seat changed party hands in three elections in the last thirty years.

Went 8-0 Liberal in 1979 and 1980, then went 8-0 and 9-0 PC in 1984 and 1988 respectively. It then went 8 Bloc/1 Liberal in 1993 and hovered around that amount through 2008. Then in 2011, it went 9-0 NDP.

Brampton, Mississauga and Oakville

Went 9-0 Liberal in 2006, then 7-2 Liberal in 2008, then 9-0 Conservative in 2011.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #772 on: May 15, 2011, 11:01:07 PM »

It's quite fun to read some of the Wikipedia articles on regional results. Some fun ones:

Montérégie

Every single seat changed party hands in three elections in the last thirty years.

Went 8-0 Liberal in 1979 and 1980, then went 8-0 and 9-0 PC in 1984 and 1988 respectively. It then went 8 Bloc/1 Liberal in 1993 and hovered around that amount through 2008. Then in 2011, it went 9-0 NDP.

Brampton, Mississauga and Oakville

Went 9-0 Liberal in 2006, then 7-2 Liberal in 2008, then 9-0 Conservative in 2011.
Both are suburbs so somewhat swing.  Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville are often known for backing the winner both provincially and federally.  In 1999, the PCs won all those ridings provincially, while in 2003 they all swung over to the Liberals.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #773 on: May 15, 2011, 11:08:10 PM »

There's no federal bellwether like Sarnia though, which has elected the winning party since the 1960s.  Not the same provincially however, as it was one of the few seats the Tories gained in the last provincial election.

I think if the NDP ever formed government, it would have to win seats like Sarnia. Not a wild thought, as the party has finished a strong second in the last two races.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #774 on: May 15, 2011, 11:51:49 PM »

There's no federal bellwether like Sarnia though, which has elected the winning party since the 1960s.  Not the same provincially however, as it was one of the few seats the Tories gained in the last provincial election.

I think if the NDP ever formed government, it would have to win seats like Sarnia. Not a wild thought, as the party has finished a strong second in the last two races.
  True it is a bellwether and I agree the NDP could conceivably win it, although it will be tough as the rural areas are pretty solidly Tory and even Sarnia like many of the industrial towns in Southern Ontario have swung to the right.  Since the party is more like the Reform than the PCs, it has a strong populist appeal thus the reason it does well in the industrial centres of Southern Ontario.  Also many of the blue collar workers are white males over 50 who tend to vote Conservative.   Also the Tories got over 50% in the last two elections and the previous Liberal incumbent Roger Gallaway was one of the more right wing Liberals thus they have a strong base to begin with.  It won't be until people get really tired of the Tories they will have any chance at chipping away at the Tories.  I would argue an NDP win would come through a Quebec-West axis much as Mulroney won in the 80s, not an Ontario-Quebec axies like the Liberals use to have.  BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are far more likely to go NDP than Ontario would.  Besides any NDP gains in the 519 area code would be offset by the 905 becoming a Tory stronghold and the 613 remaining a Tory stronghold.  The Tories are most ulnerable in the 905 and this could go Liberal but not NDP.  The 519 outside a few urban areas is pretty solidly Tory.
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