Canadian Election Results Thread
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #600 on: May 03, 2011, 01:05:42 PM »



Minor errors certain.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #601 on: May 03, 2011, 01:09:19 PM »

Bob Rae is sounding open to an NDP-Liberal merger.

He would have a bit more credibility if he were a member of the NDP, wouldn't he?
He was a member of the NDP. Huh
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #602 on: May 03, 2011, 01:12:55 PM »

Canadians pronounce Ottawa weird. Aaw-tow-waah
How else would you pronounce it?

I mean, I pronounced it Ottavah as a kid, as most Germans would, but for the past 17 years I've not dreamt of any other way than the one you describe. It is an anglicization of Outaoua, after all.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #603 on: May 03, 2011, 01:27:25 PM »

Elections Results: Save as a text file. Open using Excel

http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx


re: Yukon:
Largest poll in the 2008 election had 287 voters.

Thanks, looking good!
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #604 on: May 03, 2011, 01:39:01 PM »

Why are Labrador and the PEI ridings underpopulated compared to the rest of the country?
Because Canada's laws on the issue are utterly ridiculous. Actually, everywhere but Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia is overrepresented, just to very varying extent. Everywhere but these three is at its fixed minimum of seats. These three are proportional to a theoretical fixed size of parliament, which is quite a bit smaller than its actual size. Of course, if anywhere else were to grow so much that its fixed minimum were an underrepresentation compared to that theoretical size, then that place would get extra seats, but... it's. effing. silly.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #605 on: May 03, 2011, 01:52:03 PM »

Canadians pronounce Ottawa weird. Aaw-tow-waah
How else would you pronounce it?

I mean, I pronounced it Ottavah as a kid, as most Germans would, but for the past 17 years I've not dreamt of any other way than the one you describe. It is an anglicization of Outaoua, after all.

Probably the second vowel, which is for me an unstressed schwa (like the first vowel in "about") unless you really, really force it.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #606 on: May 03, 2011, 01:54:43 PM »

It takes color from the w, hence why it's not quite a schwa sound. Much as the o does in names like Howard etc.
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« Reply #607 on: May 03, 2011, 01:57:16 PM »


The Quebec portion of that map is beautiful Smiley though the rest of it gives Harper free reign for four years. Sad Oh well, at least the Bloc has been wiped out, and the NDP is now the official opposition, meaning that they'll probably form a government someday.
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« Reply #608 on: May 03, 2011, 01:59:18 PM »

The Bloc was official opposition once too, you know.

The Progressives also beat the Tories into third place in 1921. But didn't form the official opposition as they offered supply to the Liberal minority government.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #609 on: May 03, 2011, 02:06:53 PM »

The Quebec portion of that map is beautiful Smiley though the rest of it gives Harper free reign for four years. Sad Oh well, at least the Bloc has been wiped out, and the NDP is now the official opposition, meaning that they'll probably form a government someday.

I dunno, Southern Ontario looks a very dark shade of blue, they'd need practically a clean sweep in Toronto, although Saskatchewan looks vaguely promising
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #610 on: May 03, 2011, 02:09:33 PM »

The Quebec portion of that map is beautiful Smiley though the rest of it gives Harper free reign for four years. Sad Oh well, at least the Bloc has been wiped out, and the NDP is now the official opposition, meaning that they'll probably form a government someday.

I dunno, Southern Ontario looks a very dark shade of blue, they'd need practically a clean sweep in Toronto, although Saskatchewan looks vaguely promising
That's because it's a vote lead map. Across much of Saskatchewan, the Liberals have no discernible presence. Much of southern Ontario is three party country. (Although the Tory dominance in the rural/outer suburban parts is too strong to be broken by an end to votesplitting alone.)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #611 on: May 03, 2011, 02:13:37 PM »


It's sort of funny really. Last time the Dippers increased their vote share by ... like ... 50% and added a smattering of seats. Now their vote just went up a notch or two and they gained ten seats.


Glory NOW, Dippers all! (Why did I forget that trademark post in 2008? Strange... or maybe the forum software just didn't find it? Anyways, the third one is from the Outremont by-election.)
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cinyc
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« Reply #612 on: May 03, 2011, 02:15:53 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2011, 02:20:16 PM by cinyc »

Some margin maps.  Colors are for the winning party, 10 shades in 5-point increments from 0.01 points to 45 points.  The darkest shade is a 45 to 100 point margin.  Unfortunately, the darkest orange shade blends with red and teal looks like blue.  Those seats were almost always won by the NDP by 40+ points over their closest rival.  The maps don't show which party came in second.

Nationwide:


Maritime Provinces (reddish orange is strong NDP):


Quebec City:


Montreal (yes, overlaid the river shapefile makes the borders screwy):


Ottawa (deep reddish orange is strong NDP):


Southern Ontario:


Winnipeg:


Edmonton:


Calgary (uber-blue):


Vancouver/Victoria/Lower Mainland (deep reddish orange is strong NDP):
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exnaderite
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« Reply #613 on: May 03, 2011, 02:20:38 PM »

The Quebec portion of that map is beautiful Smiley though the rest of it gives Harper free reign for four years. Sad Oh well, at least the Bloc has been wiped out, and the NDP is now the official opposition, meaning that they'll probably form a government someday.

I dunno, Southern Ontario looks a very dark shade of blue, they'd need practically a clean sweep in Toronto, although Saskatchewan looks vaguely promising

If they were astute the NDP will be banking on a dozen losses in Quebec and will have to win dozens elsewhere. The inner suburbs of larger cities and should be where they concentrate their machine building to prevent the Liberals from taking them and to cement themselves as the national leftist party.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #614 on: May 03, 2011, 02:23:03 PM »

It takes color from the w, hence why it's not quite a schwa sound. Much as the o does in names like Howard etc.

Nah, the vowel in the first syllable of "Howard" isn't a schwa; it's the same as the one in "house" or "doubt", the diphthong [aw].
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #615 on: May 03, 2011, 02:26:10 PM »

It takes color from the w, hence why it's not quite a schwa sound. Much as the o does in names like Howard etc.

Nah, the vowel in the first syllable of "Howard" isn't a schwa
Yeah; I wasn't saying that. I was trying my hands at analogy: The middle syllable in Ottawa is to a schwa as the o in Howard - maybe I should have said Howell / Powell -  is to a decent o. Of course, that's also non-English in source (Cymraeg). Unlike Howard, actually.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #616 on: May 03, 2011, 02:56:07 PM »

The Quebec portion of that map is beautiful Smiley though the rest of it gives Harper free reign for four years. Sad Oh well, at least the Bloc has been wiped out, and the NDP is now the official opposition, meaning that they'll probably form a government someday.

I dunno, Southern Ontario looks a very dark shade of blue, they'd need practically a clean sweep in Toronto, although Saskatchewan looks vaguely promising

If they were astute the NDP will be banking on a dozen losses in Quebec and will have to win dozens elsewhere. The inner suburbs of larger cities and should be where they concentrate their machine building to prevent the Liberals from taking them and to cement themselves as the national leftist party.

that sounds like what I'd do
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exnaderite
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« Reply #617 on: May 03, 2011, 03:17:19 PM »

The Quebec portion of that map is beautiful Smiley though the rest of it gives Harper free reign for four years. Sad Oh well, at least the Bloc has been wiped out, and the NDP is now the official opposition, meaning that they'll probably form a government someday.

I dunno, Southern Ontario looks a very dark shade of blue, they'd need practically a clean sweep in Toronto, although Saskatchewan looks vaguely promising

If they were astute the NDP will be banking on a dozen losses in Quebec and will have to win dozens elsewhere. The inner suburbs of larger cities and should be where they concentrate their machine building to prevent the Liberals from taking them and to cement themselves as the national leftist party.

that sounds like what I'd do

In particular I'm thinking the outer 416 and inner 905. London, Winnipeg, and Edmonton are also places they should look to. They should make a few good noises about the conditions of northern and rural communities (especially since they face no consequences for a long time) which will give them strong second place showings and underscore their claim to be the national leftist party. Critically they will have to cultivate an Obama-style fundraising base starting from the stereotypical "champaign socialists" of which there are quite many.

They'll have to start now, because a few upsets at by-elections will boost their morale and make Harper apprehensive (especially since his party will be complacent and could suffer Liberal-style infighting).
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« Reply #618 on: May 03, 2011, 03:23:44 PM »

Bob Rae is sounding open to an NDP-Liberal merger.

He would have a bit more credibility if he were a member of the NDP, wouldn't he?
He was a member of the NDP. Huh

Exactly my point.
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homelycooking
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« Reply #619 on: May 03, 2011, 03:33:13 PM »

Interesting results in Saskatchewan. Take Saskatoon - Rosetown - Biggar, where Greens and Grits won 2% each. With the current boundaries, has the NDP hit a ceiling at about 45%? There aren't any more Liberal or Green voters to take votes from, and the rest are presumably suburban and rural Tories not exactly receptive to the NDP. Are there similar "ceilings" in other ridings in the Prairies?
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #620 on: May 03, 2011, 03:36:27 PM »

I only watched about 30 min's worth of CBC online coverage but I enjoyed it. I learned quite a bit too. I just wish another US channel besides C-Span 2 would show stuff like this

Being able to watch CBC on TV was nice.  I was able to get the first half hour live before they launched results on their website.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #621 on: May 03, 2011, 03:45:04 PM »

Bob Rae is sounding open to an NDP-Liberal merger.

He would have a bit more credibility if he were a member of the NDP, wouldn't he?
He was a member of the NDP. Huh

Exactly my point.

Well, him being a member of the NDP in the past may allow him to bridge that gap if a merger is introduced.  Now that Ignatieff has resigned, if Rae does become the next leader, I could see it happening.  If Justin Trudeau is chosen as the next leader, I don't know that he'd be pushing for a merger.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #622 on: May 03, 2011, 03:50:29 PM »

Bob Rae is sounding open to an NDP-Liberal merger.

He would have a bit more credibility if he were a member of the NDP, wouldn't he?
He was a member of the NDP. Huh

Exactly my point.

Well, him being a member of the NDP in the past may allow him to bridge that gap if a merger is introduced.  Now that Ignatieff has resigned, if Rae does become the next leader, I could see it happening.  If Justin Trudeau is chosen as the next leader, I don't know that he'd be pushing for a merger.

Bob Rae? Are you kidding? I really don't think the NDP will look well on a "traitor" who decides to return when his new party fails so dismally. And besides, it will be best if Bob Rae is kept as far from the front as possible given the bad memories of his government. And if the Liberals elect Trudeau as next leader (cannot happen because he is still too young) then they're even more bankrupt than I thought possible. Canadians don't like political families.

Finally, if anything the NDP will be lunging for the political expertise of dissatisfied Liberals (contributing further to the Liberal downfall), especially in the outer 416 and inner 905. That is where they need to do well in the next election.
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Doctor V
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« Reply #623 on: May 03, 2011, 04:00:59 PM »

Re-thinking about that, it seems pretty clear that NDP somewhat underperformed outside Quebec. Most of projections were giving NDP 90-110 seats, and they ended up with 102 : pretty correct. However, NDP was expected to carry between 45-50 seats in Quebec, and in the end they carried 58. That means the NDP lost around 10 seats it was expected to win outside of Québec.

I don't think this is really a consequence of NDP polling less well (I might be wrong of course), but rather a higher vote splitting and a stronger conservative performance. Still, the NDP needs to win outside of Québec if it wants a future as a national party. BC, the prairies and big cities should be their top targets.

So, this is the seat brekdown without Québec :
2004200620082011
Con99114133161
NDP19293644
Lib114906327
Others111

What does the PV percentage look like ?

20082011
Con43.347.7
NDP20.326.4
Lib27.120.5
Others9.35.4

The figures used are from wikipedia so it might be slightly imprecise, but overall it's clear enough : NDP still fairly above liberals, but by a tighter margin (by 5.9 instead of 11.7). Add to this a commanding tory lead, and it is explainable why NDP didn't surge there. However the NDP results aren't disappointing at all, just 4 points below the national results. I don't know what the polls exactly showed, but that seems more or less in line with what was announced. So there should be some field with NDP gain if they impose therselves as the second strongest party.

Very interesting to compare the swings with or without Quebec though. Quebec doubled the NDP surge from 6.1 to 12.4. At the same time, liberal collapse is almost unchanged (6.6 to 7.4). Finally, Tories' surge is halved from 4.4 to 2.
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« Reply #624 on: May 03, 2011, 04:05:45 PM »

Interesting results in Saskatchewan. Take Saskatoon - Rosetown - Biggar, where Greens and Grits won 2% each. With the current boundaries, has the NDP hit a ceiling at about 45%? There aren't any more Liberal or Green voters to take votes from, and the rest are presumably suburban and rural Tories not exactly receptive to the NDP. Are there similar "ceilings" in other ridings in the Prairies?

See Edmonton East. Ray Martin should run in Edmonton Centre next time.
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