Canadian Election Results Thread
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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 122829 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #550 on: May 03, 2011, 01:14:22 AM »

The Globe and Mail has called every riding:
CONSERVATIVE 167
NDP 102
LIBERAL 34
BLOC QUEBECOIS 4
GREEN 1
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #551 on: May 03, 2011, 01:15:43 AM »

So they're assuming Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca will go to the NDP, since they have the lead now, I guess.
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cinyc
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« Reply #552 on: May 03, 2011, 01:16:54 AM »

Elections Results: Save as a text file. Open using Excel

http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx


re: Yukon:
Largest poll in the 2008 election had 287 voters.


Thanks!  Too bad I didn't have that link 3 hours ago - I could have made some maps!
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #553 on: May 03, 2011, 01:18:46 AM »

Elections Results: Save as a text file. Open using Excel

http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx


re: Yukon:
Largest poll in the 2008 election had 287 voters.


Thanks!  Too bad I didn't have that link 3 hours ago - I could have made some maps!

Make some now!
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #554 on: May 03, 2011, 01:18:56 AM »

Other dramatic swings of interest:

Vaughan
Fantino (CON) 56% (+7)
Ferri (LIB) 30% (-17)
Pratt (NDP) 12% (+10)

Thornhill
Kent (CON) 61% (+12)
Mock (LIB) 24% (-15)
Stelchik (NDP) 12% (+5)

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Trottier (CON) 40% (+5)
Ignatieff (LIB) 35% (-9)
Erickson (NDP) 20% (+8)

Davenport
Cash (NDP) 54% (+23)
Silva (LIB) 28% (-18)
Rodrigues (CON) (+4)
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MaxQue
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« Reply #555 on: May 03, 2011, 01:23:29 AM »

Harper lost 4 cabinet members tonight.  All from Quebec.  The NDP surge there ended up hurting the Conservatives, and that's the one dark spot in an otherwise great night for the Conservatives.

Gary Lunn, Minister for Sports also lost in Saanich-Gulf Islands.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #556 on: May 03, 2011, 01:23:29 AM »

Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca has been called.

NDP 26,198
CON 25,792
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #557 on: May 03, 2011, 01:24:37 AM »

Final results are CON 167, NDP 102, LIB 34, BQ 4, GRN 1.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #558 on: May 03, 2011, 01:25:57 AM »

Some members of the media did lose, but not in the way I expected. PostMedia and Sun Media won for supporting the Conservatives; the Globe did, to an extent. the Star backed out fast enough. For those who lost, they lost badly:

Projectors. Once again, even the most generous projection underestimated the Conservatives by ~15 seats. The actual NDP seat count of 102 was 7 above the mean 95 seats projected, which is decent. Nobody saw the GTA dissection, however, nor did anyone predict the scope of the BQ's defeat. In light of any accurate result, most of them will either be fired or ignored. Which leads me to...

Strategic voting groups. As the NDP carved into the Liberal vote halfway through, it became impossible to rally all non-Conservative voters under a "progressive" banner. This is exemplified by Project Democracy, that strategic voting site which not only exaggerated Liberal support but could not prevent a Harper majority. Toronto bohemia has finally failed.

Pollsters. Since there was a greater diversity of results, it is difficult to blame pollsters as a whole for being incorrect. And it's not as if they were horrible; they can blame a 2% swing from the Liberals to the Conservatives on an election-day scramble. It is clear regional breakdowns need a lot of work, though, and perhaps there will now be a move from national polling to provincial polling, as different firms have to downsize.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #559 on: May 03, 2011, 01:28:39 AM »

Polling is a lot harder in Canada too.  The "All politics is local" phrase is increased in huge magnitude in Canada.
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trebor204
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« Reply #560 on: May 03, 2011, 01:29:35 AM »

Closest Ridings

Nipissing--Timiskaming (Consv - Liberal)   14
Etobicoke Centre (Consv - Liberal)   26
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup (Conserv - NDP)   110
Winnipeg North (Liberal - NDP) 117
Yukon   (Consv - Liberal) 132
Labrador   (Consv - Liberal) 231
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #561 on: May 03, 2011, 01:32:54 AM »

Harper lost 4 cabinet members tonight.  All from Quebec.  The NDP surge there ended up hurting the Conservatives, and that's the one dark spot in an otherwise great night for the Conservatives.

Gary Lunn, Minister for Sports also lost in Saanich-Gulf Islands.

Forgot about him, and CBC didn't list him  as a Cabinet Minister.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #562 on: May 03, 2011, 01:33:21 AM »

I checked, and this was actually the best NDP result in Saskatchewan since 1988. Despite winning no seats.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #563 on: May 03, 2011, 01:36:28 AM »

Closest Ridings

Nipissing--Timiskaming (Consv - Liberal)   14
Etobicoke Centre (Consv - Liberal)   26
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup (Conserv - NDP)   110
Winnipeg North (Liberal - NDP) 117
Yukon   (Consv - Liberal) 132
Labrador   (Consv - Liberal) 231


The first two will go for an automatic recount. The NDP might demand a recount in Winnipeg North, given how sure a victory it was for most observers. Maybe the NDP will challenge all of its lost seats, but the Liberals certainly won't. In Yukon, Bagnell knew that voting for the gun registry would spell his doom. The less one thinks of Labrador, the better.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #564 on: May 03, 2011, 01:38:31 AM »

I checked, and this was actually the best NDP result in Saskatchewan since 1988. Despite winning no seats.

I do not understand why the boundary commission would draw those seats like  that.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #565 on: May 03, 2011, 01:44:49 AM »

I checked, and this was actually the best NDP result in Saskatchewan since 1988. Despite winning no seats.

I do not understand why the boundary commission would draw those seats like  that.

I don't know the original reason, but the boundaries were kept last time round because Dick Proctor didn't like the look of the proposed Moose Jaw seat and promptly shot himself (and his party) in the head. The argument for change wasn't so overwhelming at the time because NDP candidates had managed (over divided non-socialist votes) to win in 1997 and 2000.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #566 on: May 03, 2011, 01:45:38 AM »

I checked, and this was actually the best NDP result in Saskatchewan since 1988. Despite winning no seats.

I do not understand why the boundary commission would draw those seats like  that.
They almost did not.
http://www.elections.ca/scripts/fedrep/sask/sask_map_e.htm
|The Liberals were in power in both 2004 and 1994 and thus, the way the map is now is the way they'd win the maximum number of seats.
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trebor204
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« Reply #567 on: May 03, 2011, 01:47:22 AM »

Blow-Outs: (All Conservative over NDP)

Calgary--Nose Hill   33225
Vegreville--Wainwright   33594
Macleod   34674
Calgary Southwest   36179
Wild Rose   36397
Crowfoot   39309
Calgary Southeast   41713

Ridings with Lowest Popular vote for the Winner

Liberal   25.6%   Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia
BLOC   30.3%   Ahuntsic
Liberal   30.9%   Vancouver Centre
NDP   32.5%   Richmond--Arthabaska
NDP   33.4%   Newton--North Delta
NDP   33.8%   Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Conservative   33.8%   Yukon
Liberal   34.1%   Lac-Saint-Louis
NDP   34.2%   Pierrefonds--Dollard

Biggest % of Popular Vote:

NDP   71.2%   St. John's East
Conservative   71.6%   Medicine Hat
Conservative   72.1%   Fort McMurray--Athabasca
Conservative   74.0%   Souris--Moose Mountain
Conservative   74.6%   Wild Rose
Conservative   75.1%   Calgary Southwest
Conservative   75.7%   Peace River
Conservative   75.9%   Red Deer
Conservative   76.0%   Portage--Lisgar
Conservative   76.3%   Calgary Southeast
Conservative   77.1%   Yellowhead
Conservative   77.5%   Macleod
Conservative   77.8%   Westlock--St. Paul
Conservative   79.7%   Vegreville--Wainwright
Conservative   81.5%   Wetaskiwin
Conservative   83.9%   Crowfoot
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ottermax
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« Reply #568 on: May 03, 2011, 01:59:38 AM »

So in summary:
Tories: The Tories accomplished something tonight. How on earth did they get to this majority? Was it only because of the NDP surge splitting the vote or was it because of something else? How will they govern? Harper has never seemed to be one of the shining leaders of Canada, but he may now have a dynasty that could continue for a total of 9 years of power. Will he be considered one of the great leaders of Canada, and how will he do that?

Liberals: Fail. The liberals have been limited dramatically to a few seats in the West, a spattering of seats in urban Ontario and Montreal, and Atlantic Canada, (in fact Atlantic Canada is now the largest caucus!). How did this happen? What will the Liberals do now? Merger, disband, continue? Who will lead the liberals now? What message will they cling to? Who will they reach out to?

NDP: Wow, but with so many caveats. To have this party that has traditionally represented left-wing English Canada, to now be largely represented by Francophones is a huge shift. What will this do to this party? Where will the NDP go from here? What will the NDP do as opposition? In the next four years will the NDP continue to lead as opposition and possibly aim for the top post at the next election?

BQ: Another fail. Where does the bloc go from here? Does separatism still matter? Who will lead this party? Will members resign or join another party? What now? How on earth did they collapse so much?

Greens: Wow. She finally won a seat. Is she irrelevant? How can May make the most out of this in the next four years? Will the Greens win more seats in the future? How can the Greens turn this around for their benefit?

Quebec: What happened? Is separatism dead or is it still an issue? How will Quebecers react to this new NDP in control?

What an amazing night! I'm not particularly thrilled by the ultimate result, but it sure has been fascinating.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #569 on: May 03, 2011, 02:02:07 AM »

On the greens winning a seat:

Back in 1989 Reform won a single seat. The office manager for that MP was one Stephen Harper.

A seat is what you make of it.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #570 on: May 03, 2011, 02:03:03 AM »

Separatism is still an issue, but it will be fought on the provincial scene from now, I think.

The BQ experiment failed, finally.
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cinyc
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« Reply #571 on: May 03, 2011, 02:15:54 AM »
« Edited: May 03, 2011, 03:13:55 AM by cinyc »

Winner, with color shading for percentage of vote to Winning candidate:
Nationwide:


Toronto/Golden Horseshoe:


Ottawa:


Montreal:


Quebec City:


Vancouver/Lower Mainland:
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Meeker
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« Reply #572 on: May 03, 2011, 02:19:10 AM »

There's some wacky border stuff going on with the Montreal map.
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cinyc
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« Reply #573 on: May 03, 2011, 02:28:00 AM »

There's some wacky border stuff going on with the Montreal map.

Yes there is.  The river/ocean shapefile I downloaded doesn't exactly match the Elections Canada shapefile when you zoom in very close.  I could see the same type of wackiness when CTV was putting results up in Montreal and Quebec City.  I haven't tried to clean things up.
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cinyc
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« Reply #574 on: May 03, 2011, 02:34:06 AM »

This is a pseudo-swing measure - 2011 Vote Percentage MINUS 2008 Vote Percentage.   Red=hot' Deepest red = +20 points or more from 2008.  Blue=cold; Deepest blue = -20 points or more from 2008.  The scale is in 5-point intervals:

First, the Conservatives:


T.O. inset:


Next, the NDP:


T.O. inset:


Finally, the Liberals:


T.O. inset:
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