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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 123258 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #50 on: May 03, 2011, 02:15:54 AM »
« edited: May 03, 2011, 03:13:55 AM by cinyc »

Winner, with color shading for percentage of vote to Winning candidate:
Nationwide:


Toronto/Golden Horseshoe:


Ottawa:


Montreal:


Quebec City:


Vancouver/Lower Mainland:
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cinyc
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« Reply #51 on: May 03, 2011, 02:28:00 AM »

There's some wacky border stuff going on with the Montreal map.

Yes there is.  The river/ocean shapefile I downloaded doesn't exactly match the Elections Canada shapefile when you zoom in very close.  I could see the same type of wackiness when CTV was putting results up in Montreal and Quebec City.  I haven't tried to clean things up.
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cinyc
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« Reply #52 on: May 03, 2011, 02:34:06 AM »

This is a pseudo-swing measure - 2011 Vote Percentage MINUS 2008 Vote Percentage.   Red=hot' Deepest red = +20 points or more from 2008.  Blue=cold; Deepest blue = -20 points or more from 2008.  The scale is in 5-point intervals:

First, the Conservatives:


T.O. inset:


Next, the NDP:


T.O. inset:


Finally, the Liberals:


T.O. inset:
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cinyc
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« Reply #53 on: May 03, 2011, 02:47:19 AM »

And national maps for the percentage of the vote won by party.  These are in the party's colors, with 10 steps that increase in intensity every 10 points, per the atlas color scales for those parties:

Conservatives:


NDP:


Liberals (Yikes!):


Bloc (Quebec only, naturally - light blue kind of stinks as a color to use for comparisons, but there really wasn't a ton of variation, anyway):


I'll do similar regional maps tomorrow by request.
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cinyc
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« Reply #54 on: May 03, 2011, 02:15:53 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2011, 02:20:16 PM by cinyc »

Some margin maps.  Colors are for the winning party, 10 shades in 5-point increments from 0.01 points to 45 points.  The darkest shade is a 45 to 100 point margin.  Unfortunately, the darkest orange shade blends with red and teal looks like blue.  Those seats were almost always won by the NDP by 40+ points over their closest rival.  The maps don't show which party came in second.

Nationwide:


Maritime Provinces (reddish orange is strong NDP):


Quebec City:


Montreal (yes, overlaid the river shapefile makes the borders screwy):


Ottawa (deep reddish orange is strong NDP):


Southern Ontario:


Winnipeg:


Edmonton:


Calgary (uber-blue):


Vancouver/Victoria/Lower Mainland (deep reddish orange is strong NDP):
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cinyc
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« Reply #55 on: May 04, 2011, 05:01:00 PM »


That's the GTA, not Toronto. Toronto is actually only just the NDP and Liberal ridings near Lake Ontario. Etobicoke, North York and Scarborough are in Toronto, technically, but are pretty different. The rest outside (Mississauga, Brampton, Pickering, Vaughan, there's a sh**tload) is the GTA.

That's kind of like saying Brooklyn and the Bronx aren't New York City.  As a legal and practical matter, Toronto is much more than just the NDP and Liberal ridings near Lake Ontario.  The Etobicoke, Scarborough and the Don Valley ridings that were won the by Tories are in Toronto - since amalgamation in 1998 or, arguably, 1954 when the metropolitan government of Toronto was first created.  The Tory areas in Mississauga or Vaughn are not.

If I'm reading the map correctly, Toronto basically includes the area east of and including the ridings along the 427 to the blue riding where the 401 almost meets the lake, and south of the line just south of where the 427 ends.
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cinyc
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« Reply #56 on: May 04, 2011, 05:36:23 PM »
« Edited: May 04, 2011, 05:38:01 PM by cinyc »

And a close-up of the city of Toronto (click for a closeup)



I was referring to the amalgamation when I used the term "technically" - the "former" Toronto is what I referenced to when I talked about the ridings near Lake Ontario. Downtown Toronto is very different from Etobicoke, which is different from Scarborough, which is different from North York, etc. They're all different culturally and politically, and the latter are more like suburbs, as you can see from the results. And even the 2010 mayoral race, Ford won everything outside of downtown, so I can't say I'm really surprised by the Conservatives' showing. But yeah, a lot of people, when referring to Toronto, still just mean downtown.

But yeah, I hate when people are referring to the GTA, and call it Toronto. Big difference.

I understand what you're saying - in the New York City area, when people say they are going into "the city", they usually mean Manhattan, not Staten Island or Queens.  And Staten Island and The Bronx are very different from Manhattan and each other, culturally and politically.  But that doesn't mean that they are not part of New York City and if a Republican wins NY-13, there's no Republican representing New York City.

The map Meeker posted is centered on the city of Toronto, but cropped so that it includes other parts of the GTA.
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cinyc
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« Reply #57 on: May 04, 2011, 06:07:13 PM »

WRT the when is Toronto not Toronto debate... the New York comparison doesn't quite work as the boundary of that city has been settled for a long time; the amalgamation was very recent and fairly controversial. So Scarborough (for example) is both part of Toronto (both legally and for most practical purposes) but isn't in certain other respects. In Britain people tend to identify where they live based on the pre-1974 local government areas (without being aware that that's what they do), and the situation the parts of Canada where there was a mania for forced amalgamations in the 1990s is probably similar.

Though I think there's some Tory representation within the old city anyway; it's not as though those boundaries respected - even the boundary of the current city is breached at one point.

Granted, 1898 (when NYC was amalgamated) isn't 1998 due to the passage of time, but the city borders are what the city borders are, regardless of when amalgamated.  NYC borough identity and pride still does exist, especially in Brooklyn and Staten Island.  And the boroughs are different from each other.

I suspect the boundary of the current city was breached for population balance reasons, necessitating a Pickering-Scarborough East riding.
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cinyc
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« Reply #58 on: May 17, 2011, 04:22:24 PM »

The Liberal candidate won after the Winnipeg North recount.  His victory fell from 45 votes over the NDP on election night to 44 votes in the recount.

That leaves two recounts open, both in Ontario - Nipissing–Timiskaming and Etobicoke Centre.  The Conservative candidate narrowly edged a Liberal in the preliminary results from both ridings.  We might get final Nipissing–Timiskaming results today.
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cinyc
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« Reply #59 on: May 17, 2011, 04:27:56 PM »

The Conservative held on in Nipissing-Timiskaming, per local media.   His margin increased from 14 votes over the Liberal incumbent on election night to 18 votes after the recount.

That leaves Etobicoke Centre's recount as the only one outstanding.
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cinyc
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« Reply #60 on: May 17, 2011, 08:46:05 PM »

I wonder if the Etobicoke Centre is expected today as well as I heard Harper plans to announce his cabinet tomorrow.  Usually one waits until all recounts are completed before doing this or perhaps maybe Harper has already decided Opitz is not cabinet material.

Doubtful.  The Etobicoke Centre recount won't even start until tomorrow.  There is no schedule for when it will end.
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cinyc
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« Reply #61 on: May 23, 2011, 05:58:27 PM »

Recount over, 'toby C has been held by the CPC.

...with no change in the margin whatsoever - Conservative win by 26 votes.  The Conservative and Liberal candidates each picked up 17 votes in the recount.

That's all for the recounts.  Canadian preliminary vote counts are pretty accurate, as usual.  I guess that's what happens when you use simple paper ballots for the election's only race.
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cinyc
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« Reply #62 on: June 19, 2011, 05:56:52 PM »

On Polling:

A pollster’s painful reckoning: ‘How could I have screwed up so badly?'

Frank Graves, the guy who runs Ekos, studied how he went wrong.  Among his findings, somewhat counter-intuitively, the cell phone sample INCREASED error.  That's because cell phone-only users - generally younger folks - didn't show up to vote.

Canadian pollsters never did seem to have much of a likely voter screen - but a separate Ekos weighting using more of a screen gave better result.

Full report here:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/accurate_polling_flawed_forecast.pdf

I haven't read it yet.
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