Canadian Election Results Thread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 04:15:29 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Canadian Election Results Thread (search mode)
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 145887 times)
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #25 on: May 02, 2011, 09:55:00 PM »

The Liberal collapse is so pitiful.
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #26 on: May 02, 2011, 10:02:21 PM »

So does anyone expect the Liberals to fold into the NDP?
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #27 on: May 02, 2011, 10:04:32 PM »

Bloc leading only in two seats. Oh mon dieu!
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #28 on: May 02, 2011, 10:21:26 PM »

Guelph and Kingston stay red. That's a bit surprising.
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #29 on: May 02, 2011, 10:25:34 PM »

Oh my God he's staying on as leader. What a nutcase.

Reading between the lines I think he's accepting that he will quit. After all he lost his seat!
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #30 on: May 02, 2011, 11:58:15 PM »

Why is Abbotsford so hideously right wing? I can see it being right wing but like that, wow.

My grade 10 bio teacher said that the school board in Abbotsford cut out the sections about sex from their textbooks.
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #31 on: May 03, 2011, 12:17:17 AM »

That waitress won by a large margin, too!
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #32 on: May 03, 2011, 03:44:51 AM »

Interesting to see the new factions emerging in the NDP and Conservative Party. Both Layton and Harper will have though jobs inside and outside their caucuses and one misstep for either will see their parties embroiled into a Liberal-style civil war.
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #33 on: May 03, 2011, 02:20:38 PM »

The Quebec portion of that map is beautiful Smiley though the rest of it gives Harper free reign for four years. Sad Oh well, at least the Bloc has been wiped out, and the NDP is now the official opposition, meaning that they'll probably form a government someday.

I dunno, Southern Ontario looks a very dark shade of blue, they'd need practically a clean sweep in Toronto, although Saskatchewan looks vaguely promising

If they were astute the NDP will be banking on a dozen losses in Quebec and will have to win dozens elsewhere. The inner suburbs of larger cities and should be where they concentrate their machine building to prevent the Liberals from taking them and to cement themselves as the national leftist party.
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #34 on: May 03, 2011, 03:17:19 PM »

The Quebec portion of that map is beautiful Smiley though the rest of it gives Harper free reign for four years. Sad Oh well, at least the Bloc has been wiped out, and the NDP is now the official opposition, meaning that they'll probably form a government someday.

I dunno, Southern Ontario looks a very dark shade of blue, they'd need practically a clean sweep in Toronto, although Saskatchewan looks vaguely promising

If they were astute the NDP will be banking on a dozen losses in Quebec and will have to win dozens elsewhere. The inner suburbs of larger cities and should be where they concentrate their machine building to prevent the Liberals from taking them and to cement themselves as the national leftist party.

that sounds like what I'd do

In particular I'm thinking the outer 416 and inner 905. London, Winnipeg, and Edmonton are also places they should look to. They should make a few good noises about the conditions of northern and rural communities (especially since they face no consequences for a long time) which will give them strong second place showings and underscore their claim to be the national leftist party. Critically they will have to cultivate an Obama-style fundraising base starting from the stereotypical "champaign socialists" of which there are quite many.

They'll have to start now, because a few upsets at by-elections will boost their morale and make Harper apprehensive (especially since his party will be complacent and could suffer Liberal-style infighting).
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #35 on: May 03, 2011, 03:50:29 PM »

Bob Rae is sounding open to an NDP-Liberal merger.

He would have a bit more credibility if he were a member of the NDP, wouldn't he?
He was a member of the NDP. Huh

Exactly my point.

Well, him being a member of the NDP in the past may allow him to bridge that gap if a merger is introduced.  Now that Ignatieff has resigned, if Rae does become the next leader, I could see it happening.  If Justin Trudeau is chosen as the next leader, I don't know that he'd be pushing for a merger.

Bob Rae? Are you kidding? I really don't think the NDP will look well on a "traitor" who decides to return when his new party fails so dismally. And besides, it will be best if Bob Rae is kept as far from the front as possible given the bad memories of his government. And if the Liberals elect Trudeau as next leader (cannot happen because he is still too young) then they're even more bankrupt than I thought possible. Canadians don't like political families.

Finally, if anything the NDP will be lunging for the political expertise of dissatisfied Liberals (contributing further to the Liberal downfall), especially in the outer 416 and inner 905. That is where they need to do well in the next election.
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #36 on: May 06, 2011, 01:32:45 AM »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSmMOkIGAks
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #37 on: May 09, 2011, 06:08:33 PM »

In politics, all things are fleeting...My theory is 100% absolutely correct, until it is wrong.... Smiley

That being said, i do think an Ontario/Western Canada political axis has a chance to survive because it is a logical alliance based upon shared interest and positions within Canada.

Western Canada is the economic engine that drives the nation, and is likely to be so for the foreseeable future, Ontario, while perhaps not the leader, at least is not an economic anchor - with enlightened leadership they have a good shot at a return to growth and prosperity.

A set of low tax, pro-growth policies are generally in alignment with the interest of both Ontario and Western Canada, while the opposite economic philosophy of high taxes and a greater role for the state are not.

To the degree that Canada as a nation embarks upon large national projects and programs, these programs will be disproportionately paid for by The West and Ontario, and the additional taxation levied on the West and Ontario will accrue to the benefit of (mostly) Quebec. - This is just an economic reality.

I would argue that the West and Ontario are natural allies or at least not natural enemies in the way the The West and Quebec are.

That may be so at the national level (though there are bound to be disagreements here), but is it true at the party level?

The Conservative Party won its majority simply by making inroads in the 905 and outer 416 areas. Many of those voters are rather lukewarm and voted just based on economic concerns (and on this the Liberals should not have ceded ground so easily). The Reform/Alliance heartland in the west is also enthusiastic about social issues. Sooner or later there will be disagreements within the caucus if Harper decides to abandon hot button social issues to strengthen support in Ontario or if he needs to pander to that same Reform/Alliance base to extract money. If the decision makers are too dominated by easterners then I won't be surprised if the Alberta Wildrose Alliance enters federal politics. Then everything the right has done in the past 20 years disappears.

Harper has iron control over his caucus for now, but there is no clear successor once the time for him to go comes (or if he is forced out once the caucus views him as a liability like Mulroney or Thatcher). In the absence of a clear line of succession his departure could cause the type of nasty infighting which left the Liberals in disarray for so long.

I'm not predicting doom and gloom, but one should remember that pride comes before the fall. Certainly the NDP faces a greater risk of falling apart given how important Quebec is now to this formerly anglophone-only party.
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #38 on: May 24, 2011, 03:21:50 PM »

Its worth noting that for all the talk about so-called "vote splitting" and about this mythical "progressive vote" in western Canada - when provincial Liberal parties vanished in BC (the party called BC Liberal is really Social Credit) and Sask. and Manitoba - their people tended to join with rightwing conservatives to create a non-NDP party. Make no mistake about it - if Harper had fallen short of a majority - the Liberals under Ignatieff would have quickly pulled a Nick Clegg and propped up Harper indefinitely. Of course the Liberals would also have promptly fallen into single digits - but so what - the Liberal Party would rather see Harper rule for the next 50 years than ever see the NDP in power.

I think the remnants of the Liberal party should just do what comes naturally and merge with the Tories and create a new Liberal-Conservative party.

But wouldn't just supporting a (presumably reduced) Conservative government fatally damage what remains of their national support? The Liberal Party campaigned almost entirely by slamming Harper and presenting themselves as the only alternative (until another alternative rocketed overnight).

I suspect they will have salvage some face and offer to form a formal "grand coalition" but only after demanding that Harper leave as party leader with the implicit understanding that his successor be formed out of a real contest and not by backroom deal. That way they could credibly claim to have removed Harper from power and anyways discontent within Conservative Party ranks would have created a serious threat to him.

By making such an offer the Liberals would have, minimum, created a media frenzy about divisions in the Conservative caucus and whether or not Harper still has grassroots party support to remain as party leader. This would quite likely be self-fulfilling, taking attention off the Liberals' own dreadful situation and perhaps undoing the entire "Unite the Right" movement. It would have been amusing to think that only the NDP would not be embroiled in intra-party warfare or dilemmas about whether it should continue existing.

But enough fantasising...
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #39 on: May 25, 2011, 01:12:32 AM »

What about Quebec? Will the Bloc Quebecois believe they have no purpose in the federal sphere and disband, or will they think they can regain their status as Quebec's protest party? If the former occurs, Quebec could become as safe NDP as the prairies are safe Alliance/CPC. If the latter, which parts of Quebec would the Bloc try to regain seats?

And are the charges that the NDP is now beholden to Quebec now that over half of its caucus is from there true or not?
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #40 on: June 19, 2011, 07:44:10 PM »

The Purgs were underestimated in 2008, so there's also a definite 'shy Tory' or something element in there.

The Liberals were underestimated by 2-3% in 2004 and 2006, so perhaps it's a shy government factor.
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #41 on: June 20, 2011, 09:23:56 PM »

Can you make a similar map for the Greens, just for reference?
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #42 on: June 20, 2011, 10:17:01 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2011, 10:20:51 PM by 猫主席 »

Can you make a similar map for the Greens, just for reference?
 I could do so, but it could take time.  I know they only got above 10% in a handful of ridings.  If you could list off the ridings I could do one certainly.  I know they got 46% in Elizabeth May's riding, but I don't believe they got above 20% in any other riding and very few above 10%.

You're right. Apart from Saanich-Gulf Islands only in Dufferin-Caledon, Calgary Centre-North, Victoria, and Vancouver Centre did they get over 10%. In Bruce Grey-Owen Sound they had 9.99%.
Logged
2952-0-0
exnaderite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,221


« Reply #43 on: June 20, 2011, 11:57:00 PM »

Interesting that none of the above ridings are in Quebec. There's the perception that the Green Party is one of upper-middle-class WASPs who can afford to eat organic and buy fair trade (but then again that's true with all Green Parties).
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.033 seconds with 11 queries.