Canadian Election Results Thread

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Western Ontario is not nearly as anti-NDP as you think.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Rae's win.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

That is lots of words...

It comes down to math. Once you take into account the unexpected GTA Harper bump, my math was correct. My math says the NDP can win "rural" areas of SW Ontario, like they did in Rae's era

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Liberals won Scarborough (and Etobicoke) in terms of popular vote, both my very small margins.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Liberals won Scarborough (and Etobicoke) in terms of popular vote, both my very small margins.

The Liberals actually won the 416 area code as well.  The NDP and Tories only got more seats since their vote was more concentrated.  The Tory vote is largely limited to the suburban 416, otherwise the same areas that voted for Rob Ford, while the NDP was mostly in the downtown core.  Scarborough was a real three way split and a slight increase for any party in votes would have meant a complete sweep.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown whether it is random or how they are distributed as the NDP has never been strong here prior to this election and the Tories were last strong here in 1988 when the riding demographics were vastly different than today thus no real comparison.  Scarborough has long been a Liberal stronghold and I am actually quite surprised how that collapsed so quickly.

Tories swept North York, the NDP swept the old city

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?hl=en&geocode=&ie=UTF8&vps=2&jsv=340c&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004a339e65b69873c792

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If Toronto is combined with York and East York

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

For those who don't know, John Baird is known for being the debater in Parliament WHO ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE SPEAKING IN ALLCAPS. I find it amusing now he will be representing us in those subtle situations.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I don't see how that's worrying; there are a lot of total morons in cabinet.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I don't see how that's worrying; there are a lot of total morons in cabinet.

I was considering writing something like "actually intellectually challenged as opposed to just disliked on partisan grounds", but that would be long and you'd still probably think there were some.

Indeed I do.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If Toronto is combined with York and East York

Old Toronto (Incl York and East York)
NDP - 165,703 - 43.6%
Lib - 117,069 - 30.8%
CPC - 77,060 - 20.3%
Grn - 17,483 - 4.6%
Oth - 3,010 - 0.9%

North York
CPC - 112,946 - 40.1%
Lib - 108,453 - 38.5%
NDP - 52,934 - 18.8%
Grn - 6,380 - 2.3%
Oth - 824 - 0.3%

Scarborough
Lib - 77,800 - 34.2%
CPC - 76,840 - 33.8%
NDP - 66,250 - 29.1%
Grn - 5,986 - 2.6%
Oth - 617 - 0.3%

Etobicoke
Lib - 54,346 - 39.0%
CPC - 54,019 - 38.8%
NDP - 26,335 - 18.9%
Grn - 3,605 - 2.6%
Oth - 924 - 0.7%

TOTAL CITY OF TORONTO
Lib - 357,668 - 34.8%
CPC - 320,865 - 31.2%
NDP - 311,222 - 30.3%
Grn - 33,454 - 3.3%
OTh - 5,375 - 0.5%

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The NDP's previous high in SRR was 14.6%. I'm going to be nice and round that to 15%.

The NDP took 40.5% this election. If they had taken 15% (and if the Liberals had, as you may expect, picked up the remainder) then Scarborough would look like this:

Scarborough
Lib - 89,678 - 39.4%
CPC - 76,840 - 33.8%
NDP - 54,372 - 23.9%
Grn - 5,986 - 2.6%
Oth - 617 - 0.3%

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

With Bramlea-Malton split in half...

Mississauga
C - 127,187 - 43.5%
L - 103,490 - 35.4%
N - 52,582 - 18.0%
G - 8,154 - 2.8%
O - 856 - 0.3%

Brampton
C - 62,991 - 44.0%
L - 44,560 - 31.1%
N - 30,873 - 21.6%
G - 4,023 - 2.8%
O - 732 - 0.5%

URBAN PEEL REGION (IE the two above combined)
C - 190,178 - 43.7%
L - 148,050 - 34.0%
N - 83,455 - 19.2%
G - 12,177 - 2.8%
O - 1,599 - 0.4%

Durham Region (not including brock)
C - 129,407 - 51.0%
N - 58,851 - 23.2%
L - 53,587 - 21.1%
G - 10,406 - 4.1%
O - 1,276 - 0.5%

York Region
C - 209,664 - 52.0%
L - 113,990 - 28.3%
N - 63,577 -15.8%
G - 12,970 - 3.2%
O - 2,806 - 0.7%

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Teddy your boundary between North York and "Toronto" isn't right, even allowing that the latter includes York and East York.

Where exactly am I wrong?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

25% of DVW is East York maybe.
25%-33% of Egl-Law is Toronto.

Both are majority North York.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Seems like the NDP is becoming the party of the old city, definitely so if the Liberals continue to be shut out. But as for Etobicoke North and York West, I see them voting Tory before the NDP. That part of the city has more in common with the 905 than the rest of the city.

If you've ever actually been to Etobicoke North or York West - you would see that they are actually two of the poorest ridings in all of Ontario. Etobicoke North is largely run-down high rises built in the 60s that are mostly inhabited by Somalis and Sikhs and York West is the Jane-Finch corridor which is overwhelmingly Black housing projects. They are a teeny bit like the similarly poor and very visible minority 905 riding of Bramalea-Gore-Malton that almost went NDP and they are a lot like the Scarborough seats that went NDP.

When people talk about "905-land" as in the areas that went heavily Tory in this election - they don't mean run-down apartment complexes inhabited by recent immigrants and visible minorities and people with low incomes. They mean places like Thornhill and Oakville and much of Mississauga and Markham and Richmond Hill where you have a lot of big detached single family homes and people with upper middle class incomes.

I live in York West. I take the 106 bus every day that goes up and down Sentinel. My visual observations would indeed place this portion of the riding as one of the "black"ist areas of the city.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Recount over, 'toby C has been held by the CPC.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Now that the writs are returned, we should see some official seating data from Parliament, which is what I've been waiting to see ever since a few hours into ballot counting.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Liberals were, generally, able to keep "English Canada" and Quebec happy at the same time - that is, outside the West. Given the current CPC dominance on the Prairies (3 opposition seats out of 56 total) I don't think that the threat of "losing the west" is a serious concern for the NDP.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I'm curious what people think the results would have been if this
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=138428.0
had been used in the election.

A dozen more NDP seats?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

A first in a series of posts...

I've taken poll by poll results and I'm using it to figure out what vote share each party got in areas of ridings. For example:

Yukon

Whitehorse
Lib-35.1%
Con-31.5%
Grn-20.2%
NDP-13.2%

Rural
Con-36.8%
Lib-30.1%
Grn-17.2%
NDP-15.9%

I'm going to tackle the Regina/Saskatoon seats next, and then perhaps a few others that have large towns in them, and I'm also open to requests.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Will be doing:
All Regina and Saskatoon seats (unless I fall alseep first) as well as:
Ajax Pickering
This will allow me to determine if there was any Lib/Con split.
Pickering-Scarborough East
This will allow me to combine with the above to find out the total for Pickering, and, allow me to thus remove that from the Toronto results, and hence, determine Toronto.
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Thunder Bay-Superior North
This will allow me to solve for (Determine the total pop vote in) Thunder Bay
Lethbridge
Solve for the city/town of Lethbridge


Maybe:
Peterborough
Solve for the city of Peterborough (VS the rural area)
Thornhill
Split between Markham and Vaughan
Oak Ridges-Markham
Adding the above and the Markham riding, will allow me to solve for Markham
Mississauga-Brampton South
Bramlea-Gore-Malton
These two will allow me to split Mississauga from Brampton and solve for both.
Cariboo-Prince George
Prince Geroge-Peace River
Solve for Prince George
Western Arctic
Solve for Yellowknife
York South - Weston
Toronto Danforth
Beaches East York
Don Valley West
Davenport
Eglinton-Lawrence
St. Pauls
Solve for Toronto, North York, East York, and York

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

SASKATOON

City:
Con - 47.1%
NDP - 43.2%
Lib - 7.0%
Grn - 2.7%


RIDINGS
Black - R
C - 66.9%
N - 26.5%
L - 4.2%
G - 2.5%

Black - U
C - 49.8%
N - 40.7%
L - 7.1%
G - 2.4%


Wanu - R
C - 69.7%
N - 22.1%
L - 4.8%
G - 3.3%

Wanu - U
C - 48.6%
N - 39.4%
L - 8.3%
G - 3.6%


Rose - R
C - 62.4%
N - 33.3%
G - 2.6%
L - 1.6%

Rose - U
N - 53.4%
C - 41.7%
L - 2.3%
G - 2.2%


Humb - R
C - 64.9%
N - 25.3%
L - 5.2%
G - 2.0%

Humb - U
C - 46.5%
N - 40.1%
L - 9.4%
G - 2.7%

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

That'd take a loooot of work actually. I can do it, but likely in a month.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

it's figuring out what goes where