Carrier Counties

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nebraska - all of the following since 1900 (as far back as maps go):

Logan, Boone, Nemahah, Lancaster, Seward, Fillmore, Clay, Nuckolls, Webster

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ohio - Hocking since 1912 (as far back as maps go)

[A18]

Loudoun, VA - every election since 1940

The Atlas doesn't have data for any election before that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Illinois - Peoria

It had to be didn't it?

[Redefeatbush04]

My former home county:
Berkshire County, Massachusetts

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Utah - Wayne since 1896 (as far back as maps go)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kentucky - Lawrence since 1956

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

West Virginia - Monogalia, Tucker and Raleigh, all since 1916

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tennessee - Anderson since 1936

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oregon - Hood River, Washington and Benton since 1948

[bgwah]

Utah - Wayne since 1896 (as far back as maps go)

I don't think Utah is even older than that?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah, you're right. Every election then.

Wyoming - Platte since 1912 (when it became a county)

[bgwah]

Same with King County and Washington, since WA became a state in 1889.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So since no Republican will win King in the current climate, no Republican can win Washington. Shows how ridiculous the predictions of it for Bush were.

Louisiana - Natchitoches Parish since the start of the maps in 1912.

[A18]

So since no Republican will win King in the current climate, no Republican can win Washington. Shows how ridiculous the predictions of it for Bush were.

Washington was significantly closer than Virginia, but people still claimed it was a swing state.

[Alcon]

So since no Republican will win King in the current climate, no Republican can win Washington. Shows how ridiculous the predictions of it for Bush were.

Louisiana - Natchitoches Parish since the start of the maps in 1912.

This is not entirely true. If King was close, and Snohomish, Pierce, and Whatcom counties where carried by large margins, and if there was high turnout in the east that was highly pro-Republican, it is possible. But those are a lot of "if"s.

Washington could be close, but at the same time would be less likely to flip sides than states won by larger margins.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Virginia was about 8 points, Washington about 7 points, not much of a difference.

Taking Bush's PV victory into account, Washington is more Democratic than Virginia is Republican, since it makes Virginia 5 points more Republican than the national average and Washington 10 points more Democratic than the national average.

[A18]

Except that's a ridiculous way to calculate how Republican or Democratic a state is. Ask Alcon about his county; is it Republican or Democrat? Depends if you go by state or national victory.

[Alcon]

Except that's a ridiculous way to calculate how Republican or Democratic a state is. Ask Alcon about his county; is it Republican or Democrat? Depends if you go by state or national victory.

I could answer that. It's Democratic, slightly. Kerry won it by almost 3%, probably due to increased military vote (we have two bases - which don't manage to swing the county, surprisingly).

There are no huge Republican strongholds in Virginia, really. King County is 30% of the state and the Republicans have trouble increasing their percentages there much. The solidly Democratic base is huge there - maybe over 50% of the overall voting population. That is more difficult to swing than Virginia, which has its population spread out and has less of the "stronghold" feeling.

However, Washington is clearly a Democratic state; Virginia a Republican one. Which one is more likely to change is another question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Raleigh

Which makes Raleigh's result this year look even weirder than normal...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Idaho - Boise, since 1924 + 1912 (no results for 1920 or 1916)

Kootenai county also works since 1924, but it didn't exist in 1912, it was part of a larger county however, which did vote Wilson, and thus still works as a bellwether.

[jimrtex]

Utah - Wayne since 1896 (as far back as maps go)

1896 was Utah's first election.

[jimrtex]

I might get all down this weekend. Some states (like Missouri and Texas) scare me though.

If I did it right, for Texas since 1940:

Jeff Davis, Kinney, Aransas, Calhoun, Lavaca, Wharton, Jackson, Mills, Brown, Shackleford, Young, Parker, and Hunt.

Aransas may have gone for Hoover in 1928, which might carry it back into the 19th century.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

South Carolina - Laurens since as far back as maps go to 1900