Carrier Counties

[King]

I was just looking at New Castle, DE and it turns out that whatever it votes the state of Delaware always votes, are there any other states with these "carrier counties"?

[Erc]

Well, considering there are only 3 counties in DE...and New Castle contains Wilmington.

[Alcon]

Well, obviously, no county always carries a state, but here are the counties that I know of that make up 50%+ of a state's votes:

Honolulu County, HI (69.6%)
Newcastle County, DE (65.2%)
Clark County, NV (60.8%)
Maricopa County, AZ (59.2%)
Providence County, RI (52.9%)

That may not be all of them, but I think that is most. All are pretty Democratic, except Honolulu County (less Democratic than the rest of the state, but still heavily) and Maricopa County (fairly Republican).

[Erc]

Bellwether counties:

Alabama:  Madison, Dekalb, Blount, St. Clair, Calhoun, Cleburne, Tuscaloosa, Autauga, Elmore, Pike, Monroe, Escambia, Covington, Coffee, Geneva, Coffee, Dale, Henry [1960--beginning of data]
Arizona:  Navajo, Gila, Pinal, Greenlee, La Paz [1996]
Arkansas:  Lonoke, Cleburne, Franklin, Miller [1960]California:  San Benito, Monterey, Santa Barbara, Imperial [1960]
Colorado:  Garfield, Larimer [1960]
Connecticut:  New Haven, Middlesex, New London [1960]
Delaware:  New Castle [1960]
Florida:  Citrus [1960]
Georgia: Lincoln, Haralson, Monroe, Jones, Laurens, Bleckley, Candley, Brantley, Jefferson Davis, Bacon, Worth [1960]
Hawaii: Kauai, Kalawao, Maui, Hawaii [1964]

New York:  Schenectady, Broome [1980]

[more later perhaps]

[bgwah]

Well, obviously, no county always carries a state, but here are the counties that I know of that make up 50%+ of a state's votes:

Honolulu County, HI (69.6%)
Newcastle County, DE (65.2%)
Clark County, NV (60.8%)
Maricopa County, AZ (59.2%)
Multnomah County, OR (56.3%)
Providence County, RI (52.9%)

That may not be all of them, but I think that is most. All are pretty Democratic, except Honolulu County (less Democratic than the rest of the state, but still heavily) and Maricopa County (fairly Republican).

Multnomah?? I don't think so. It only makes up about 20% or so of the states over all population, and it definately didn't make up 50% of Oregon's vote...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Best bellwether for Minnesota I've found so far is Pine. It works since 1960.

[Alcon]

Well, obviously, no county always carries a state, but here are the counties that I know of that make up 50%+ of a state's votes:

Honolulu County, HI (69.6%)
Newcastle County, DE (65.2%)
Clark County, NV (60.8%)
Maricopa County, AZ (59.2%)
Multnomah County, OR (56.3%)
Providence County, RI (52.9%)

That may not be all of them, but I think that is most. All are pretty Democratic, except Honolulu County (less Democratic than the rest of the state, but still heavily) and Maricopa County (fairly Republican).

Multnomah?? I don't think so. It only makes up about 20% or so of the states over all population, and it definately didn't make up 50% of Oregon's vote...

Oops, yeah. I thought that was a bit weird.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just checked, and yes, Pine is it for Minnesota.

North Dakota: Stutsman, Barnes and Cass all work since 1908, as far back as the maps go.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Iowa: Winnebago since 1932 (as far back as the maps go continuously, works also for 1920 and 1900, but not 1912)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

South Dakota: Clark and Brookings since 1892 (as far back as the maps go)

we should try this for every state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

California: Monterey, San Benito, Santa Barbara, Imperial; all since 1952

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

New Jersey - Union (since 1964)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pennsylvania - Luzerne since 1936

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Napa County, California

[jimrtex]

I was just looking at New Castle, DE and it turns out that whatever it votes the state of Delaware always votes, are there any other states with these "carrier counties"?

Until the 2004 election, New Castle had voted with the national popular vote winner since 1936.  But Delaware as a whole missed in 1948, with the southern counties voting enough for Dewey to overturn Truman's lead in the north.

In the 1790 census, the three counties had almost identical populations of about 20,000.  In the first presidential election, Delaware chose its electors by district, and since there were only 3, I strongly suspect that each county chose one elector.  Pre-independence, the area was referred to as the "Counties on the Delaware".

By the mid-1800s, New Castle had begun to grow, presumably due to the development of Wilmington as a small city.  By 1870 half the state's population was in New Castle.  Sussex, the southernmost county had a somewhat larger population than Kent in the middle, perhaps due simply to having a larger land area.

New Castle experienced strong growth after World War II, and reached its peak dominance in 1970 with 70% of the population.

Kent had doubled its 1790 population by 1950, but has tripled since then (perhaps due to the incorporation business in Dover?)

Sussex saw small growth beginning as early as 1940, likely tied to the beach area.  This has greatly accelerated in recent years, with a 40% gain in the 2000s (tied to the bridge at Annapolis, which makes the area much more accessible to Washington and Baltimore?).

By 2000, New Castle was down to 62% of the total population.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Montana - Sanders since 1928

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wisconsin - Jackson and Adams since 1916

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Colorado - Alamosa since 1944

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

North Carolina - New Hanover and Carteret since 1912 (as far back as the maps go)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Connecticut - Middlesex since 1948

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

well it appears King county serves as a "carrier" for Washington, it has voted the way Washington has in every election as far back as the maps go (1892) and it contains almost 30% of Washington's population.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice work!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I might get all down this weekend. Some states (like Missouri and Texas) scare me though.

The method I'm using is rather simple, I just copy and paste the map into paint, then blot out every county that voted for the loser. Then I got to the next election, and blot out all the counties that voted for who lost the state that election, so on and so on. It doesn't take that long at all for states with not that many counties.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

ha, this is interesting. There's only one county in NM that voted with the state in both 2000 and 2004. And it voted for Dukakis in 1988. So Colfax county is the bellwether in NM, but only since 1992.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Illinois - Peoria and Champaign, both since 1964

If you want to argue Nixon won Illinois in 1960, both work going back to 1952.