Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nanos regional figures...

Atlantic: NDP 35, Con 33, Lib 30, Greenies 2
Quebec: NDP 37, BQ 24, Con 18, Lib 13, Greenies 2
Ontario: Con 39, NDP 29, Lib 28, Greenies 2
Prairies: Con 55, NDP 27, Lib 11, Greenies 6
BC: Con 41, NDP 28, Lib 24, Greenies 7

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Thoughts on if osama will affect the result?

[2952-0-0]

Ekos final projection: http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/final_seat_projection_may_1.pdf

EDIT: If the seat projection is exactly right, then my joke prediction in the other thread will be bang on.

[Verily]

Thoughts on if osama will affect the result?

I don't really see it, but maybe could help the Conservatives in some marginal ridings. I don't think it would change many views of Canadian participation in Afghanistan, though (would be very different if Canadian soldiers killed bin Laden, of course).

[cinyc]

Election Prediction Project's close-to-final projection currently stands at:
Conservatives 146
Liberals 65
NDP 61
Bloc 33
Independent 1
Too Close 2

The too close ridings are Laurier-Sainte-Marie in Quebec and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour in Nova Scotia.  

Laurier-Sainte-Marie appears to be between the NDP and Bloc, while Dartmouth-Cole Harbour seems to be between the NDP and Liberals.  Ultimately, that means Election Projection projects the Liberals will end up with more seats than the NDP.  Interesting.

[Bacon King]

I think the EPP prediction may be underestimating NDP support; looking through Quebec for example there are a good number of seats where nobody has posted a prediction since March.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well good lucky getting any decent coverage of this tomorrow...

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Well good lucky getting any decent coverage of this tomorrow...

Fortunately I get CBC, so I'll still get it.

[cinyc]

Well good lucky getting any decent coverage of this tomorrow...

http://tweettheresults.ca/

C-SPAN 2 is supposed to rebroadcast Canadian coverage (likely from CBC) starting at 10PM Eastern.

[Meeker]

The only results that are really going to be delayed for anyone are the Atlantic seats (which make up less than 10%). I don't get what the big fuss is about.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I'd like to voice my disappointment that I cannot purchase a Stephen Harper bobblehead.

[Foucaulf]

Though long discredited, ThreeHundredEight's final projection is out:

Conservatives 143 (uc), NDP 78 (+42), Liberals 60 (-17), Bloc 27 (-20), Independents 0 (-2)

Looks like the consensus is that the Tories will get between 140 to 150 seats. The NDP will become the official opposition, but the number of seats they will obtain varies from the mid seventies to the mid hundred-tens. Taking the average, we get around 95.

All that remains to see is whether the Tories will have enough for a majority, whether the Bloc/Liberals will be pummeled into submission, and maybe whether May wins her seat. And how many ridings switches parties overall. Certainly exciting enough for me to miss Canucks game 3.

Election Prediction is still shifting. They now have the NDP with more seats than the Liberals, with all races projected:   

They're saying Duceppe will keep his riding and that the NDP will take Dartmouth-Cole Harbour. Ambiguity resolved.

[cinyc]

Election Prediction is still shifting. They now have the NDP with more seats than the Liberals, with all races projected:

Conservatives 146
Liberals 63
N.D.P. 65
Bloc  33
Independent 1

I'm not sure if this will be their last update.
   

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thoughts on if osama will affect the result?

It won't. But it will give the pollsters an excuse if they're wrong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Election Prediction Project's close-to-final projection currently stands at:
Conservatives 146
Liberals 65
NDP 61
Bloc 33
Independent 1
Too Close 2

The too close ridings are Laurier-Sainte-Marie in Quebec and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour in Nova Scotia.  

Laurier-Sainte-Marie appears to be between the NDP and Bloc, while Dartmouth-Cole Harbour seems to be between the NDP and Liberals.  Ultimately, that means Election Projection projects the Liberals will end up with more seats than the NDP.  Interesting.

EPP tends to have a strong bias towards incumbents, which means that it can miss the boat when there's a large swing. Though as noted already they've had second thoughts about some seats already.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From the Star:

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[minionofmidas]

On eve of vote, Duceppe fighting for own riding

Back in March, who'd have thought a headline like that possible?

I've been thinking it possible ever since Thomas Mulcair's famous victory in the Outremont by-election...

Now. Likely. That is something else entirely.

[minionofmidas]

Yesterday was better for the NDP:
Conservatives 33.8%
NDP 33.8%
Liberal 19.9%
Bloc 7.1%
Greens 4.0%
Other 1.4%
(MoE +/- 5.3%)

Pretty sure that that would result in the NDP becoming strongest party in terms of seats.

[Meeker]

Any word on what turnout is like? Are such things reported on in Canada?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://twitter.com/#!/search/turnout%20%23elxn41 this is the bext I can find.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Any word on what turnout is like? Are such things reported on in Canada?

There may be a few rumours later in the day, but compared to the US it will all be pretty impressionistic, since the election's run more centrally by Elections Canada staff, who are not exactly into releasing information while things are still running (see: broadcasting), rather than by all these random county clerks doing their own thing. Also it's well run enough that you wouldn't see those ridiculous long lines outside the building even at 100% turnout.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Elections Canada plans for 100% turnout every election, hence the lack of long lines.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Someone's pulling some dirty tricks in Guelph.

[redcommander]

Why exactly has the NDP surged? Is it just the result of Layton's debate performance?