Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Dan the Roman]

Harper seems to be positioning himself for a coalition with the party which he spent years accusing of lusting for power via undemocratic coalition. How appropriate.

The Liberals shoot themselves in the foot a lot, but that would be more like shooting themselves in the head.

Let's look at the options the Liberals have, once they're trounced into third place and they hold the balance of power in a hung parliament:

1) Liberals forced to humiliatingly prop up Conservative confidence motions while their leadership candidates make anti-Harper rhetoric

2) Harper decides to kill the Liberals once and for all by offering goodies to a certain number of centrist Liberal MPs even when (what's left of) the Liberal leadership opposes them

3) NDP-led, Liberal supported coalition takes power, and within months the Liberals act like a jilted wife in a forced marriage; the Liberals get destroyed from the left if the NDP governs well or from the right if the NDP governs like Bob Rae

Realistically the only way the Liberals are going to survive in the long term is if they can afford to posture and make principled stands while cleaning out all Chretien/Martin flunkies, which depends on the Conservative Party winning a majority, which itself seems shaky.

Basically, whoever the next Liberal leader is, they shouldn't become a Canadian Nick Clegg.

No, they should let the NDP form a government, and trigger an election when the government hits its first term blues. Its true the Tories wills stomp, but all that is important is that Liberals retake the official opposition. So if they are smart they wait a few months before knifing Iggy, and force an election of opportunity in partnership with Harper and the Bloc if there is an NDP minority. Everyone would have something to gain.

[Хahar 🤔]

Inspiration: http://archives.cbc.ca/politics/provincial_territorial_politics/clips/5192/

Strange to see the NDP in green.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

NDP has used green in Ontario and PEI, and Purple in Alberta. Mostly in the 90's.

[minionofmidas]

Harper seems to be positioning himself for a coalition with the party which he spent years accusing of lusting for power via undemocratic coalition. How appropriate.

The Liberals shoot themselves in the foot a lot, but that would be more like shooting themselves in the head.

Let's look at the options the Liberals have, once they're trounced into third place and they hold the balance of power in a hung parliament:

1) Liberals forced to humiliatingly prop up Conservative confidence motions while their leadership candidates make anti-Harper rhetoric

2) Harper decides to kill the Liberals once and for all by offering goodies to a certain number of centrist Liberal MPs even when (what's left of) the Liberal leadership opposes them

3) NDP-led, Liberal supported coalition takes power, and within months the Liberals act like a jilted wife in a forced marriage; the Liberals get destroyed from the left if the NDP governs well or from the right if the NDP governs like Bob Rae

Realistically the only way the Liberals are going to survive in the long term is if they can afford to posture and make principled stands while cleaning out all Chretien/Martin flunkies, which depends on the Conservative Party winning a majority, which itself seems shaky.

Or the NDP winning a majority, of course.

Either way, the Liberals are in real danger to be no more relevant than the post-93 federal PCs were for the remainder of their natural life.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Basically, whoever the next Liberal leader is, they shouldn't become a Canadian Nick Clegg.

No, they should let the NDP form a government, and trigger an election when the government hits its first term blues. Its true the Tories wills stomp, but all that is important is that Liberals retake the official opposition. So if they are smart they wait a few months before knifing Iggy, and force an election of opportunity in partnership with Harper and the Bloc if there is an NDP minority. Everyone would have something to gain.

I appreciate your constant assertion that the NDP would be complete and utter catastrophe and incompetence in every conceivable way from Day 1, but that sort of immediate short term partisan strategy doesn't solve the problem the Liberals have been dealing with for several election cycles now. The Liberals aren't very used to dealing with the NDP in the position it's in now, and the Liberals have been slowly bleeding support for several years. People don't seem to see any reason to vote for the Liberals anymore.

The Liberal campaign this cycle has boiled down to Ignatieff being incredibly snotty and entitled. Ask him why people should vote for the Liberals, and he'll just respond with "because we're the Liberal Party." Well that doesn't seem to be good enough at this point anymore, especially with a much more noticeable left-wing alternative in the mainstream at the moment.

With Conservatives, you know roughly what you're getting. Layton is the most explicitly issues-focused of all three of them. Layton is giving people reasons to vote for the NDP. The Liberals haven't been able to do that at all.

Your strategy is a good one, I guess, if we go along with your assertion that the NDP is hopelessly incompetent and doomed from the minute they take any sort of power on the federal level (which I think is an incredibly stupid and presumptuous thing to assume before the election has even taken place) but it still doesn't solve the larger problem aside from the Liberals saying "we're not the other guy, we should govern because we're Liberals!"

It may give them one more opportunity to differentiate themselves, but the Liberals have given basically no indication at all that they know how to do that or what they want to differentiate themselves as.

Love them or hate them, the NDP is actually explaining what they are and what they want to do, and giving people a reasonable idea of what you get for an NDP vote. And whaddya know? People seem to be receptive to that.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Final Projection Up! http://www.ridingbyriding.ca/

[minionofmidas]

I like it, but I fear it may look like porn come wednesday.

[You kip if you want to...]

I wouldn't get too ahead of myself if I was an NDPer.

[Smid]

I largely agree with your predictions, although a few changes.

[Verily]

One more Nanos poll (not sure if they'll release one tomorrow, so this may be the final one):

CON: 37.0 (-1.0)
NDP: 30.6 (+1.0)
LIB: 22.7 (-0.6)
BQ: 5.5 (+0.3)
GRN: 3.2 (+0.1)

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprising, I thought the NDP would bleed some more. I guess this wouldn't include the fallout from massagegate?

[Meeker]

Well that's heartwarming.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll be disappointed if the NDP doesn't at least form the Official Opposition at this point. I predict we'll get 28% of the popular vote.

[Insula Dei]

Some outsider thoughts:

-I can't see the Liberals force another election any time soon (as dantherepublican suggested). They'd have lost 4 elections and anywhere between 100 and 130 seats over the past 7 years if polls and seat projections are to be trusted. Honestly, I don't know how the party is supposed to react to its situation, but they must be really scared of election campaigns by now. Of course they'd also be killed if they participated in a coalition with the Conservatives, and accepting a junior role in a NDP-led coalition would doom them to 3rd party status as it would recognize the NDP as the main leftwing party. Seemingly they're forced to provide whoever forms the next government with a majority on an informal basis, forever threatening to vote down the government, but in reality to scared of the voter to do anything of the sort and de facto slowly becoming increasingly irrelevant. This scenario seems more likely under Rae than under Trudeau though.

-I note that the conservatives are polling below their 2008 numbers, but might wind up with about the same amount of seats. I can see a situation where they make gains on the Liberals' expense in Ontario, but lose seats in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies to the NDP. I suppose this is potentially a very dangerous situation to Harper as Red Tories might get nervous and jump ship, or Western Conservatives might conclude that their grip is slipping and decide to ditch him for a more western leader. This too could be very interesting. (Especially if the Tories actually finish the night with less seats than they started it with!)

These are both extremely uninformed guesses as to what might happen, so I'd like to hear from those with more knowledge and insight.

[Verily]

Also, COMPAS has what I think is a poll (but the way they phrase it, it might be a projection) that is completely off-the-wall:

CON: 46 (+2)
NDP: 26 (+10)
LIB: 17 (-7)
BQ: 7 (-1)
GRN: 4 (-4)

Changes are from their poll on 11 April. They routinely overstate the Conservatives, but this is a new extreme for COMPAS.

[You kip if you want to...]

Also, COMPAS has what I think is a poll (but the way they phrase it, it might be a projection) that is completely off-the-wall:

CON: 46 (+2)
NDP: 26 (+10)
LIB: 17 (-7)
BQ: 7 (-1)
GRN: 4 (-4)

Changes are from their poll on 11 April. They routinely overstate the Conservatives, but this is a new extreme for COMPAS.

LOL.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, they should let the NDP form a government, and trigger an election when the government hits its first term blues. Its true the Tories wills stomp, but all that is important is that Liberals retake the official opposition. So if they are smart they wait a few months before knifing Iggy, and force an election of opportunity in partnership with Harper and the Bloc if there is an NDP minority. Everyone would have something to gain.

That is exactly what Asquith did in 1924. Didn't work out so well for him or his party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I like it, but I fear it may look like porn come wednesday.

Tuesday, surely? But, yeah. Agree. Let us reach into the world of cliché and not count our chickens until they've hatched.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regional figures from that there Nanos poll...

Atlantic: Lib 34, Con 33, NDP 29, Greenies 4
Quebec: NDP 37, BQ 24, Lib 18, Con 17, Greenies 1
Ontario: Con 36, Lib 31, NDP 27, Greenies 4
Prairies: Con 60, NDP 25, Lib 13, Greenies 2
BC: Con 41, NDP 35, Lib 18, Greenies 6

Obvious, being Nanos, small samples.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Do they ever poll the territories, or is that like polling Alaska?

[minionofmidas]

I like it, but I fear it may look like porn come wednesday.

Tuesday, surely?

If it looks like porn on tuesday, it'll still look like porn on wednesday. Besides, tuesday is the day my little ten-day stay-home vacation is over, so I won't get a close look until the evening.

[Meeker]

Abacus

National: Cons 37, NDP 32, Libs 18, BQ 7, Greens 7
Ontario: Cons 41, NDP 29, Libs 25, Greens 6
Quebec: NDP 40, BQ 27, Libs 14, Cons 13, Greens 6
BC: NDP 40, Cons 40, Greens 11, Libs 10
Atlantic: NDP 34, Cons 31, Libs 26, Greens 8
Prairies: Cons 56, NDP 26, Libs 11, Greens 7
Alberta: Cons 67, NDP 21, Libs 6, Greens 6

Forum Research (write-up, can't find a report, so not all number available)

National: Cons 35, NDP 32, Libs 19, doesn't give BQ or Greens
Ontario: Cons 36, NDP 31, Libs 25, doesn't give Greens
Quebec: NDP 33, BQ 21, Cons 16, Libs 13, doesn't give Greens
BC: Cons 39, NDP 37, Libs 15, Greens 9
Atlantic: Cons 31, NDP 30, Libs 26, doesn't give Greens
Praires: Cons 45, NDP 33, Libs 15, doesn't give Greens
Alberta: Cons 147, NDP 22, Libs -31, 10 Greens (actual number)

And for Earl: It's not a riding poll, but they do say "nearly half of Montreal voters, 49 per cent, say they have decided or are likely to support the NDP".


Nanos will have another poll out tonight around 9

[Verily]

Alberta: Cons 147, NDP 22, Libs -31, 10 Greens (actual number)

*snerk*

Also noticed that Forum has a TON of undecideds in Quebec (17%).

[Insula Dei]

Is this the best the NDP has done yet (compared to the Conservatives)?

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[minionofmidas]

Pretty sure of it.