is Georgia slowly returning to its democratic roots?
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  is Georgia slowly returning to its democratic roots?
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freepcrusher
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« on: March 21, 2011, 12:46:33 AM »

Georgia has one of the strongest democratic traditions. The democratic nominee for president has gotten a majority of votes in Georgia 28 times, more than any other state. But in recent years its turned republican. No democrat has gotten more than 50 percent since 1980 and no democrat not named Carter has gotten 50 percent since 1960.

But is the state coming home to the democratic party? Looking at a map of north Central Georgia I see that in 1984 the only county in that area to vote for Mondale was Fulton County. In 1988, DeKalb County joined Fulton in voting for Dukakis. Clayton County, which gave Bush 65 percent of the vote in 1988, narrowly voted for Clinton in 1992, and has remained democratic ever since. In 2008, the democratic voting habits spread to Rockdale, Newton, and Douglas counties while Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton counties have become even more democratic. Obama won 67, 78, and 82 percent in those counties. Obama also managed to do respectably in Gwinnett and Cobb counties, both of which have a lot of population, and until recently were uber gop.

Not only that, but I have heard that a lot of blacks are moving to the Atlanta Area. I don't want to generalize, but blacks have been the democratic party's most reliable voting bloc for the past 50 years, so having more blacks is going to help shift the state towards the democratic party.
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Horus
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« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2011, 12:54:44 AM »

Lots of blacks moving to the Atlanta suburbs. Some liberal white migration to deep downtown and midtown Atlanta as well, are helping, but its still a southern state in an area that is still trending towards the GOP.

Overall, short-term I think its fairly static, long-term I think it will trend our way.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2011, 01:42:18 AM »

I think GA will replace MO an only-slightly-red swing state. MO will trend to the GOP where GA will become a true tossup state.

I expect GA to be competitive with the next 3 or 4 cycles.

Georgia has one of the strongest democratic traditions. The democratic nominee for president has gotten a majority of votes in Georgia 28 times, more than any other state.

I'm sure that has a lot to do with Carter...
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2011, 09:30:21 AM »

I expect GA to vote Obama in 2012 if Palin or Romney are the nominees.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2011, 10:38:03 AM »

Not really, the country in general is becoming less regionally polarized.
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phk
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« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2011, 03:18:30 PM »

Not really, the country in general is becoming less regionally polarized.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2011, 03:20:15 PM »

I vote no. Obama only performed so well in 2008 because of the large turnout of African Americans. The whites there are still very racially polarized in their voting habits. It's still a rural state, so the Democrats would have to appeal to the crackers in the real Georgia, and I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Plus, doesn't Georgia have a strong military presence? I think it was one of the handful of states where McCain won the youth (18-29) vote.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2011, 03:30:15 PM »

well the strategy for winning Georgia would be to rack up huge margins of victory in metro Atlanta and hope that can bail you out elsewhere. Try to get 80% in both DeKalb and Clayton counties and 70% in Fulton County. Get in the mid to high 50s in Douglas, Newton, and Rockdale counties. Try to narrowly win Gwinnett, Cobb, and Henry counties.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2011, 06:18:39 PM »

Looking at the trends, I would say yes and it's not about polarization, but a changing electorate. Georgia's electorate is more minority than it was before, plus a white vote that isn't as solid Republican as other southern states. It will be more of a swing state in a few cycles.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2011, 06:47:15 PM »

well the strategy for winning Georgia would be to rack up huge margins of victory in metro Atlanta and hope that can bail you out elsewhere. Try to get 80% in both DeKalb and Clayton counties and 70% in Fulton County. Get in the mid to high 50s in Douglas, Newton, and Rockdale counties. Try to narrowly win Gwinnett, Cobb, and Henry counties.

Most of Georgia's fast-growing suburban counties are still heavily Republican, as is Northern Fulton County.

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krazen1211
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« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2011, 12:42:26 PM »

Possibly. But gerrymandering helped secure Georgia Democrats for well over a decade even when they started losing the overall popular vote, the same will be true in reverse.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2011, 04:48:57 PM »

There are a lot of out-of-staters, mostly from the north and west where housing is much more costly.  That naturally liberalizes the state to a degree.  It's similar, albeit slower, to the process we see in Virginia.
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TomC
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« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2011, 09:39:27 PM »

It may be trending Democratic, but it is not returning to the Democratic Party that was once strong there. More urban, more of various minorities. Is there any doubt that Wallace (I know he's from next door), Spitball Miller or even Sam Nunn would be a Republican today? Would someone like Jimmy Carter even survive a primary in either party?
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DS0816
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« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2011, 12:59:15 AM »

George W. Bush is the only two-term Republican president to have carried Georgia in both his elections. Realignments and a realignment of the map make Ga. Advantage: Republican. A strong national margin and/or concerted effort is what makes Ga. flippable for the Democrats.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2011, 05:39:28 PM »

George W. Bush is the only two-term Republican president to have carried Georgia in both his elections. Realignments and a realignment of the map make Ga. Advantage: Republican. A strong national margin and/or concerted effort is what makes Ga. flippable for the Democrats.

You forgot to include the favorite son effect that helped Carter, especially in 1980.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2011, 06:17:27 PM »

Not really, the country in general is becoming less regionally polarized.

So it'll be like 1960, when pretty much every state outside of the Deep South was close?
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